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  • #28,341
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:42pm Sep 8, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting SunTrader
And many say, "how can you tell the trend direction". Just how you put it.

Whichever direction is moving faster is the dominant trend.
Is it right that the relation in velocity between them is usualy about 1 to 3 ?
  • #28,342
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:44pm Sep 8, 2008 8:44pm
woot easy 35 pips off that 61.8 retrace...now waiting for 4.115 again..looks like it will get broken this time...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #28,343
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:46pm Sep 8, 2008 8:46pm
Quoting psiholog
donno about long term but short term definetely...1.4115 happens to be 61.8% retracement for last downward move...what happens there determines if lower low will be made...
yeah right, 61.8 has been penetrated and it almost reach the 100% fib exp and now it's kinda retrace to get some momentum again.
I'll go short @1.4135 (23.6% fib retracement) and if triggered, my target is 1.3805 (161.8 fib exp). I don't want to miss this opportunity. At least 75% of this set-up based on my study usually break thru. Just for myself as fib is my boy. I'll set my SL@ 1.4215 above the pivot lvl and 38.2 Fib.

IF it reach 1.4135, it's having a hard time pushing above 1.4100, lol.
  • #28,344
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:47pm Sep 8, 2008 8:47pm
Quoting SunTrader
And many say, "how can you tell the trend direction". Just how you put it.

Whichever direction is moving faster is the dominant trend.
I guess that makes it clear
  • #28,345
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:50pm Sep 8, 2008 8:50pm
Quoting FXObserver
yeah right, 61.8 has been penetrated and it almost reach the 100% fib exp and now it's kinda retrace to get some momentum again.
I'll go short @1.4135 (23.6% fib retracement) and if triggered, my target is 1.3805 (161.8 fib exp). I don't want to miss this opportunity. At least 75% of this set-up based on my study usually break thru. Just for myself as fib is my boy. I'll set my SL@ 1.4215 above the pivot lvl and 38.2 Fib.

IF it reach 1.4135, it's having a hard time pushing above 1.4100, lol.
when i said last downward move i meant from 1.4156 to 1.4046, fibs changes all the time, these fib lines are important because a new lower low was made therefore fibs are relevant
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #28,346
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:53pm Sep 8, 2008 8:53pm
Quoting psiholog
when i said last downward move i meant from 1.4156 to 1.4046, fibs changes all the time, these fib lines are important because a new lower low was made therefore fibs are relevant
We got the same boy working on us
  • #28,347
  • Sep 8, 2008 8:56pm Sep 8, 2008 8:56pm
now comes the classic bounce between the lines...23.6% and 61.8% before a direction is revealed...probably waiting for London session

Edit:note to the wise...be aware bernanke speaks tommorow...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #28,348
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:01pm Sep 8, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting psiholog
now comes the classic bounce between the lines...23.6% and 61.8% before a direction is revealed...probably waiting for London session

Edit:note to the wise...be aware bernanke speaks tommorow...
What do you think will be his tone tomorrow, dovish or hawkish?
I got the feeling it's kinda hawkish.
  • #28,349
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:04pm Sep 8, 2008 9:04pm
Quoting psiholog
when i said last downward move i meant from 1.4156 to 1.4046, fibs changes all the time, these fib lines are important because a new lower low was made therefore fibs are relevant
Ok I have the same fibs. How do you get your targets? The calculations I got from some site gave me a 1.618 target of 1.3935. So I'm just wondering why mine are different. How did you come up with yours, if you don't mind? Still learning about expansion numbers.
  • #28,350
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:12pm Sep 8, 2008 9:12pm
Quoting 4xisfun
Ok I have the same fibs. How do you get your targets? The calculations I got from some site gave me a 1.618 target of 1.3935. So I'm just wondering why mine are different. How did you come up with yours, if you don't mind? Still learning about expansion numbers.
targets for what?..take profit?....simple...once a retracement occurs to 61.8 i just take profit a few pips above 23.6%....chances of a rangebound movement are higher at this time of day ...break comes later...then in this particular case i will sell at 100% or below (low of the day) or buy above 1.4115 (61.8)..usually a break above 61.8% takes it back to where it started from...at full retracement which is 1.4156 i will either close position or see if a break above that value occurs.

I dont use sites...i dont use calculators...just look at the charts....after the original retracement up...there was a double top (temporarily) followed by the break down....that latest break is the only valid movement to me now...once that range is broken the longer term fibs comes into play.(15minute+5min charts)

Edit:..someday...about 15-20 years from now i will write a book about scalping off fibs....someday...HAH
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #28,351
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:28pm Sep 8, 2008 9:28pm
Quoting cobraforex
Is it right that the relation in velocity between them is usualy about 1 to 3 ?
Don't really know the statistics on it.

But from Oct 05 bottom to top on 7/15/08 took 688 days. To retrace almost 50% of that move has taken 40 days so far or a ratio of about 17 to 1. And speed doesn't seem to be abating anytime soon.

This current downtrend has approx 2.5 down bars for each upbar so it could be typical.
  • #28,352
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:28pm Sep 8, 2008 9:28pm
Quoting psiholog
targets for what?..take profit?....simple...once a retracement occurs to 61.8 i just take profit a few pips above 23.6%....chances of a rangebound movement are higher at this time of day ...break comes later...then in this particular case i will sell at 100% or below (low of the day) or buy above 1.4115 (61.8)..usually a break above 61.8% takes it back to where it started from...at full retracement which is 1.4156 i will either close position or see if a break above that value occurs.

I dont use sites...i dont use calculators...just look at the charts....after the original retracement up...there was a double top (temporarily) followed by the break down....that latest break is the only valid movement to me now...once that range is broken the longer term fibs comes into play.(15minute+5min charts)

Edit:..someday...about 15-20 years from now i will write a book about scalping off fibs....someday...HAH
Thanks!! But how did you get your 1.618 target of 1.38?? (sorry, can't remember exact number) How did you get your Fib Expansion number for your target of 1.38??.. . .
  • #28,353
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:29pm Sep 8, 2008 9:29pm
psiholog, if it works good then that's really good to hear. I was able to succussfully scalp 16pips about 30min ago too.

Even though I was able to collect some pips, during that trade I thought it was a mistake for me. See pic below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,354
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:37pm Sep 8, 2008 9:37pm
Quoting 4xisfun
Thanks!! But how did you get your 1.618 target of 1.38?? (sorry, can't remember exact number) How did you get your Fib Expansion number for your target of 1.38??.. . .
i think you may be confusing me with someone else here...i dont recall having said anything about 1.38 regarding fibs. however whoever said that was right?...donno...regardless if you look on the weekly charts the next support if 1.4000 is broken is around 1.3820

Edit:also if you draw yearly fibs from the last push up which started november 13,2005 to the current high of 1.6.....that 1.3820 area is around 50% retracement
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #28,355
  • Sep 8, 2008 9:46pm Sep 8, 2008 9:46pm
Quoting psiholog
i think you may be confusing me with someone else here...i dont recall having said anything about 1.38 regarding fibs. however whoever said that was right?...donno...regardless if you look on the weekly charts the next support if 1.4000 is broken is around 1.3820

Edit:also if you draw yearly fibs from the last push up which started november 13,2005 to the current high of 1.6.....that 1.3820 area is around 50% retracement
aaaaaahhhhhh. . . you are right. Very sorry. It was fxobserver. Thanks for your info though!! It's past my bedtime. . .
  • #28,356
  • Edited 10:20pm Sep 8, 2008 9:55pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting FXObserver
What do you think will be his tone tomorrow, dovish or hawkish?
I got the feeling it's kinda hawkish.
btw...his tone will be enough for me to get some sleep...ive had enough losses off trichet/bernanke speaking

Side note:ike appears much worse then gustav regarding oil....anyone agree/disagree?
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  • #28,357
  • Sep 8, 2008 11:07pm Sep 8, 2008 11:07pm
What a crazy reaction to the awful german numbers again. I shorted the hell out of 1.41

Even did the biggest sin of all and averaged my position higher. I just wasn't sure when it would turn and I wanted to be on this train.
  • #28,358
  • Sep 8, 2008 11:11pm Sep 8, 2008 11:11pm
Quoting mikkom
What a crazy reaction to the awful german numbers again. I shorted the hell out of 1.41

Even did the biggest sin of all and averaged my position higher. I just wasn't sure where it would turn and I wanted to be on this train.
careful on your exit..hasnt broken the trend yet...could still go higher
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #28,359
  • Sep 8, 2008 11:14pm Sep 8, 2008 11:14pm
Quoting psiholog
careful on your exit..hasnt broken the trend yet...could still go higher
My exit is already almost BE so that won't be a problem. I would be really surprised if this would go over 4115.
  • #28,360
  • Sep 8, 2008 11:17pm Sep 8, 2008 11:17pm
Quoting mikkom
My exit is already almost BE so that won't be a problem. I would be really surprised if this would go over 4115.
the craziest moves happen when we least expect them...thats why i dont expect anything anymore just waiting for a break out

Edit:notice how the bad euro news had no impact on anything...a few days ago this would have brought this pair down 50+pips easily
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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