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  • #27,681
  • Sep 5, 2008 2:38pm Sep 5, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting Polonaise
Don't you think there is reverse head and shoulders pattern forming on hourly chart?
Sure, charts are full of patterns. There is one similar that occured at 1.4400, not as dramatic, but it failed. I'm not saying this one won't reverse, I'll just wait for confirmation.
  • #27,682
  • Sep 5, 2008 2:43pm Sep 5, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting bigandrich
Sure, charts are full of patterns. There is one similar that occured at 1.4400, not as dramatic, but it failed. I'm not saying this one won't reverse, I'll just wait for confirmation.
So will I
  • #27,683
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:01pm Sep 5, 2008 3:01pm
Quoting trendspider
Hi,

I see many posts talking about scalping. I have never been successful in scalping when I tried sometime back.

Can you please guide me to some good scalping strategy that I could start practicing all over again ?

Have a very nice weekend

TS
I scalp the exact same way that I take longer developing trades,except use smaller time frames. Find support and resistance on 1m or 5m charts and trade accordingly. I'm sure there are a plethora of scalping techniques out there that use all kind of indicators. I like to keep it simple. I'd like to hear other's techniques as well.
  • #27,684
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:15pm Sep 5, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting bigandrich
yeah, they're really falling on hard times over there.
Actually - they don't want the price to continue north.

The higher it goes the more Boone, the government and you and I continue to search for alternative solutions.

The higher the price - the shorter the time we find alternative solutions.

We should have learned our lesson in the 70's - we didn't.

I believe we have now.
  • #27,685
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:34pm Sep 5, 2008 3:34pm
Quoting trendspider
Hi,

I see many posts talking about scalping. I have never been successful in scalping when I tried sometime back.

Can you please guide me to some good scalping strategy that I could start practicing all over again ?

Have a very nice weekend

TS
Scalping on 5-10-30sec charts for 5-10 pips per trade is the only way of trading which consistently brings me returns. 70% of my trades are at least break-even.

Doing anything on higher time frame was a disaster for me every single time.

There is no strategy. Feel the market, feel its heartbeat, do not be greedy, accept what it is giving you. Do not overcrowd your charts with indicators, except basic S/R they will not help on this level.

Today I played for the first time with 10sec Oil and Gold charts up, they seem to be a good help!

DO NOT OVERLEVERAGE, some say it is safe with scalping but I had my lessons and mark my word: just do not do it. 1:10 - 1:15 is max IMHO

Try to stay away or be very careful on days like today or yesterday.

Today I collected my 15 daily pips in 4 trades but got greedy again and as it often happens, this "one more trade" cost me 11 of them. Dang, but I am still green for today. Next week will be better.
  • #27,686
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:39pm Sep 5, 2008 3:39pm
Quoting bigandrich
I scalp the exact same way that I take longer developing trades,except use smaller time frames. Find support and resistance on 1m or 5m charts and trade accordingly. I'm sure there are a plethora of scalping techniques out there that use all kind of indicators. I like to keep it simple. I'd like to hear other's techniques as well.
Thanks,
1m and 5m will do the trick as long as you pull the trigger at the right place in that fast movements of short TF
i'd like to here from others too

TS
  • #27,687
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:42pm Sep 5, 2008 3:42pm
Quoting don.key
Scalping on 5-10-30sec charts for 5-10 pips per trade is the only way of trading which consistently brings me returns. 70% of my trades are at least break-even.

Doing anything on higher time frame was a disaster for me every single time.

There is no strategy. Feel the market, feel its heartbeat, do not be greedy, accept what it is giving you. Do not overcrowd your charts with indicators, except basic S/R they will not help on this level.

Today I played for the first time with 10sec Oil and Gold charts up, they seem to be a good help!

DO NOT OVERLEVERAGE, some say it is safe with scalping but I had my lessons and mark my word: just do not do it. 1:10 - 1:15 is max IMHO

Try to stay away or be very careful on days like today or yesterday.

Today I collected my 15 daily pips in 4 trades but got greedy again and as it often happens, this "one more trade" cost me 11 of them. Dang, but I am still green for today. Next week will be better.
Thanks brother, where can i get 5-10-30sec charts ?
  • #27,688
  • Sep 5, 2008 3:57pm Sep 5, 2008 3:57pm
Quoting trendspider
Thanks brother, where can i get 5-10-30sec charts ?
MBT does but it isn't MT4 They have tick charts. I have a live account with them which I feed into Ninja Trader. I don't know what they offer for demo.

Jim
  • #27,689
  • Edited 7:43pm Sep 5, 2008 3:59pm | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting bigandrich
I scalp the exact same way that I take longer developing trades,except use smaller time frames. Find support and resistance on 1m or 5m charts and trade accordingly. I'm sure there are a plethora of scalping techniques out there that use all kind of indicators. I like to keep it simple. I'd like to hear other's techniques as well.
I trade off psych levels and PP.

Every trade I have is over within minutes.

I look for patterns that exist every day on this pair.

A move to a .20, a bounce, and then if it moves to .20 again there's a high probability it moves to .00. (Near 80%)

If the trade starts to slow or move against me... I'm out.

I can take a lot of 5-10 PIP losses because my hit rate is so high.

I over traded last month but still managed a high hit rate.

Over 1000 trades with around 50 losses.

This goes back to the baseball analogy.

I don't hit home runs.

Only singles and a double every now and again.

But I win almost every day.

Some days - like yesterday - a whopping 5 PIPS.

Today - a whopping 18 PIPS.

Tuesday was my big day... 40 PIPS.

I don't like being in the market.

Too many variables.

Too many moves I don't understand.

When I first DEMO traded this idea I didn't think it would work.

It does.

I was up 5% in July, 25% in August and thus far 5% in September and I often only trade the US session. (I think I traded the EURO session 5 times in August)

Note: I've altered the numbers above after analyzing recent performance. (Altered at 8:42PM)

I also missed a week in August and traded only 15 days in July.

I haven't had a losing month in a long time.

Sure - I had three months that were single digit gains but a win no less.

Mike
  • #27,690
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:00pm Sep 5, 2008 4:00pm
Nice head and Shoulder forming now in 1H Chart..

Have nice weekend alll
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #27,691
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:01pm Sep 5, 2008 4:01pm
i got seriously wounded on the battlefield of eur/usd today,,,,,,,had to leave the battle ground bruised, battered and all that,,,,,,,lets hope d medics can do their job to keep me fit for next week's trading,,,,,,,and pls whats with eur/usd,,,,fundamentals and oil price,,,,,,,i waz of the opinion that the bad news from NFE wld send the dollar down and give euro bulls the highway but instead the reverse waz the case ,,,,with poor little old me caught in the cross fire,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,can someone please explain what waz responsible for todays price movement?
  • #27,692
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:05pm Sep 5, 2008 4:05pm
Wow, what's with this huge aberration after NY close? Typically a garbage time on Fridays, but not today...
  • #27,693
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:16pm Sep 5, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting cobraforex
Just recognized that tomorrow will be the event of a Trichet speech, that could be a high risk !
How does this work with weekends in forex anyways? I assumed that all markets are closed, yet, I see many moves on the charting over weekends.

So, could Trichter's bla bla tomorrow affect the market in the same day or only on monday?
  • #27,694
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:18pm Sep 5, 2008 4:18pm
Quoting Subdude
Wow, what's with this huge aberration after NY close? Typically a garbage time on Fridays, but not today...
Yeah, saw that! Someone closing shorts or perhaps taking longs?
  • #27,695
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:35pm Sep 5, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting don.key
How does this work with weekends in forex anyways? I assumed that all markets are closed, yet, I see many moves on the charting over weekends.

So, could Trichter's bla bla tomorrow affect the market in the same day or only on monday?
Banks are trading at weekends, only our broker’s close; they do that because like this we can take a weekend job to fill our accounts again on Monday.
So that speech will affect tomorrow.
  • #27,696
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:40pm Sep 5, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting don.key
Yeah, saw that! Someone closing shorts or perhaps taking longs?
Something major may be about to happen this weekend - check this out:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1220..._us_whats_news

My broker streams index quotes AH (apparently based on AH activity), so even though DJIA officially closed +32, it's really now +88 (from yesterday's close)

I was dumb enough to massively short AU and UJ into the rally. On the other hand, if nothing happens over the weekend, then Asia might pull the plug again Sunday afternoon.
  • #27,697
  • Edited 5:04pm Sep 5, 2008 4:45pm | Edited 5:04pm
Some thoughts for the weekend going into next week...

If price stays at or below current S/R of 4300 (weekly closed at 4230) for any length of time, I would not be surprised to see 1.400 tested pretty quickly. If there is a gap open up, or next week opens with a bull move, I'm going to be very cautious about getting on that bus just yet.

It will take a solid move back above 4300 to convince me of that direction. If it manages that, then I can easily see it ranging for awhile anywhere in the upper shaded box, altho I would expect the mid point level at 79% / 1.4650 to be fairly strong, and could easily be the upper limit as well given current price momentum to the downside.

In other words, where we saw price bouncing off of and above that level in mid August on the way down, It may well bounce off of and below it on any attempts back up.

Any breaks below 1.40, (in addition to getting very interesting) could easily put us into the 600 pip range shown by the bottom shaded box, with 3600/3650 being a strong mid point for that zone. And if that zone is reached, it could wind up lasting a while.

Price ranged in zone 1 for 25 weeks, Zone 2 for 17 weeks, and Zone 3 for 20 weeks. Correlate those levels to Oil and USD economic health declines, and then the subsequent turn south with OIL and Eurozone health forecasts, and you get... So far, it's comin down a lot faster than it went up.

I'm really curious to see how price deals with what I'm callin the "no man's land between 1.40 and 1.43, shown by the green box with the "?" in it. My hunch is it won't hang out there long, but will break one way or the other fairly soon with some world class headfakes along the way.

The perma bear in me said all that to say I'm looking for ZONE 1 again sooner rather than later, and in a year or four by the end of all this, there might even be a better feel for the long term integrity of the Euro itself. That's another sleeping dog, I know.

Hopefully it goes without saying there's no such thing as a straight line to anywhere, and the noobs remember this is a WEEKLY chart in a time of tremendous volatility and reallocation of global assets.

I'll try to tweak this same chart over the weekend, with an alternative scenario going the other way for awhile first, and try to throw out some more fodder to ponder for the Sunday open and confuse us even more. Think of this one as the more apocalyptic of the two...

Serious comments from you old heads really are welcome if you think I missed something or am just a total nincompoop. You know who you are...

PS GO SARAH!!
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #27,698
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:54pm Sep 5, 2008 4:54pm
Quoting Subdude
Wow, what's with this huge aberration after NY close? Typically a garbage time on Fridays, but not today...
I'm not seeing it, what happened?
  • #27,699
  • Sep 5, 2008 4:56pm Sep 5, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting Subdude
Something major may be about to happen this weekend - check this out:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1220..._us_whats_news

My broker streams index quotes AH (apparently based on AH activity), so even though DJIA officially closed +32, it's really now +88 (from yesterday's close)

I was dumb enough to massively short AU and UJ into the rally. On the other hand, if nothing happens over the weekend, then Asia might pull the plug again Sunday afternoon.
Oh nice, so this cannot be any good for Dollar anyway? By monday's asian session we might see the 1.4600 again? :/
  • #27,700
  • Sep 5, 2008 5:05pm Sep 5, 2008 5:05pm
Quoting ak4x
Some thoughts for the weekend going into next week...
PS GO SARAH!!
Nice work, I printed it out to include your thinkings in the weekly homework.
Thanks
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