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  • #27,401
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:18pm Sep 4, 2008 9:18pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Don't trade without a stop loss. It will save your ass in the long run.
If you knew nothing else about FOREX, this would be enough to change your trading for the better.
  • #27,402
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:32pm Sep 4, 2008 9:32pm
Here is another lesson on assuming risk:

Whether it is 1%, 10% or 50% I don't care what you are risking because many people here are playing mini with $250 acct which on the scale of things is irrelevant.

What I want to ask is this - did you REALLY assume the risk?

What do I mean by that?

If you were to hit the stop loss will you feel any different than before entering the trade?

If the answer is yes, then you should stop trading and adjust your attitude.

If after entering the trade you are going to have your heart jump at every pip move then you haven't really assumed the risk.

Really assuming the risk to me means. Ok I am PAYING $xxx to find out if I am right. You have to write the money at risk off. That's your EXPENSE in this business.

You don't go take a girl out to a restaurant and fear paying the dinner and not getting laid, do you?

Because there is always another night, another restaurant (trade setup) and another girl (trade instrument)...
  • #27,403
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:39pm Sep 4, 2008 9:39pm
Quoting charlinks
Here is another lesson on assuming risk:

Whether it is 1%, 10% or 50% I don't care what you are risking because many people here are playing mini with $250 acct which on the scale of things is irrelevant.

What I want to ask is this - did you REALLY assume the risk?

What do I mean by that?

If you were to hit the stop loss will you feel any different than before entering the trade?

If the answer is yes, then you should stop trading and adjust your attitude.

If after entering the trade you are going to have your heart jump at every pip move then you haven't really assumed the risk.

Really assuming the risk to me means. Ok I am PAYING $xxx to find out if I am right. You have to write the money at risk off. That's your EXPENSE in this business.

You don't go take a girl out to a restaurant and fear paying the dinner and not getting laid, do you?

Because there is always another night, another restaurant (trade setup) and another girl (trade instrument)...
and yet so many people out there in the world take the first girl that they have a chance with out. Be patient, there is a right "girl" for everyone. Just because ten other people thought you missed the chance of the lifetime doesn't make it true.
  • #27,404
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:47pm Sep 4, 2008 9:47pm
Quoting charlinks
Here is another lesson on assuming risk:

Whether it is 1%, 10% or 50% I don't care what you are risking because many people here are playing mini with $250 acct which on the scale of things is irrelevant.

What I want to ask is this - did you REALLY assume the risk?

What do I mean by that?

If you were to hit the stop loss will you feel any different than before entering the trade?

If the answer is yes, then you should stop trading and adjust your attitude.

If after entering the trade you are going to have your heart jump at every pip move then you haven't really assumed the risk.

Really assuming the risk to me means. Ok I am PAYING $xxx to find out if I am right. You have to write the money at risk off. That's your EXPENSE in this business.

You don't go take a girl out to a restaurant and fear paying the dinner and not getting laid, do you?

Because there is always another night, another restaurant (trade setup) and another girl (trade instrument)...
I tell her this dinner is going to be $150.

What do I get for that?

Anything less than the entire package she can eat at the golden arches.

I've had some big mac eaters in my time.

Usually get a quick pull or a honk on Bo Bo.

Take what you can get.
  • #27,405
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:48pm Sep 4, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting Verto
and yet so many people out there in the world take the first girl that they have a chance with out. Be patient, there is a right "girl" for everyone. Just because ten other people thought you missed the chance of the lifetime doesn't make it true.
Well said
Not all sins are created equal
  • #27,406
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:48pm Sep 4, 2008 9:48pm
Since I am not trading the rest of this week, I'll offer up my "1 picture = 10k words" graphical evaluation of the last 2 weeks or so a day early and forgo the Friday PM rant...

End of story.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #27,407
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:49pm Sep 4, 2008 9:49pm
Quoting acumen
I tell her this dinner is going to be $150.

What do I get for that?

Anything less than the entire package she can eat at the golden arches.

I've had some big mac eaters in my time.

Usually get a quick pull or a honk on Bo Bo.

Take what you can get.

When the McRib was on the menu, that was usually good for a slow pull....
  • #27,408
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:50pm Sep 4, 2008 9:50pm
Any forcasts on where E/U is going? Anyone shorting?
  • #27,409
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:50pm Sep 4, 2008 9:50pm
Quoting charlinks
Here is another lesson on assuming risk:

Whether it is 1%, 10% or 50% I don't care what you are risking because many people here are playing mini with $250 acct which on the scale of things is irrelevant.

What I want to ask is this - did you REALLY assume the risk?

What do I mean by that?

If you were to hit the stop loss will you feel any different than before entering the trade?

If the answer is yes, then you should stop trading and adjust your attitude.

If after entering the trade you are going to have your heart jump at every pip move then you haven't really assumed the risk.

Really assuming the risk to me means. Ok I am PAYING $xxx to find out if I am right. You have to write the money at risk off. That's your EXPENSE in this business.

You don't go take a girl out to a restaurant and fear paying the dinner and not getting laid, do you?

Because there is always another night, another restaurant (trade setup) and another girl (trade instrument)...
yes
  • #27,410
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:50pm Sep 4, 2008 9:50pm
Quoting acumen
I tell her this dinner is going to be $150.

What do I get for that?

Anything less than the entire package she can eat at the golden arches.

I've had some big mac eaters in my time.

Usually get a quick pull or a honk on Bo Bo.

Take what you can get.

LOL....I like that..the shotgun approach...nice..
  • #27,411
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:01pm Sep 4, 2008 10:01pm
Quoting ylianna28
Any forcasts on where E/U is going? Anyone shorting?
Hmmmm.

Either way.

I'd suggest waiting until NFP is released and watching the reaction.
  • #27,412
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:02pm Sep 4, 2008 10:02pm
Whoa.. fascinating things happen overnight.. Well, my mid-term short taken out. As I see it today could just turn out like another 08/08/08. After 1.43 the next support is only 1.385-1.39 area where we'll meet the ltl for the entire euro uptrend since 2000. Next big support for cable also seems like it's another 500 pips below, a bit above 1.7. We could get there pretty quick now allright. However even with all this panic I don't see that being broken before we get a big retracement (if not another long-term bull wave), there's no way the market will completely forget about the interest rate differences and let it keep crashing to 1 from there.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #27,413
  • Edited 10:26pm Sep 4, 2008 10:08pm | Edited 10:26pm
Quoting Jurrasic
Whoa.. fascinating things happen overnight.. Well, my mid-term short taken out. As I see it today could just turn out like another 08/08/08. After 1.43 the next support is only 1.385-1.39 area where we'll meet the ltl for the entire euro uptrend since 2000. Next big support for cable also seems like it's another 500 pips below, a bit above 1.7. We could get there pretty quick now allright. However even with all this panic I don't see that being broken before we get a big retracement (if not another long-term bull wave), there's no way the market will completely forget about the interest rate differences and let it keep crashing to 1 from there.
there have been times that others thought like you and paid the price.

take this fact for instance


The largest fall ever in one month for cable was in September of 1992... it fell from 2.0110 to 1.6815...the next month it then preceeded to fall from 1.7880 to a low of 1.5535...thus from high to low in two months it fell 45.75 big figures.....4,575 pips...yes you are seeing correctly...4575 pips on one position in 2 months.....

More startling is that the largest continual fall commenced in November of 1980 until February 1985......, where cable topped at 2.4540 and finally bottomed at 1.0463...a stagerring 140.77 big figuresor 14,077 pips.......only a brief rally from September until December 1982 marred the collapse , the retracement after a fall of 68.35 big figures amounted to 19.67 big figures ( 28%.....not even a fibo number....) .

For all of you Fibo people the retracement of the overall move atained a 61.8 retracement in April 1988.........I dont know about you, but I dont think I could a wait that many years to see a position return to near profitability or minimise my loss...... I would have either died or gone insane by then.

Do Not believe you can trade without a stop......

now I am not saying this will happen with euro or cable but it shows that NO corrections, retracements do not need to happen
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #27,414
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:13pm Sep 4, 2008 10:13pm
Quoting Tmac
there have been times that others thought like you and paid the price.

take this fact for instance


The largest fall ever in one month for cable was in September of 1992... it fell from 2.0110 to 1.6815...the next month it then preceeded to fall from 1.7880 to a low of 1.5535...thus from high to low in two months it fell 45.75 big figures.....4,575 pips...yes you are seeing correctly...4575 pips on one position in 2 months.....

More startling is that the largest continual fall commenced in November of 1980 until February 1985......, where cable topped at 2.4540 and finally bottomed at 1.0463...a stagerring 140.77 big figuresor 14,077 pips.......only a brief rally from September until December 1982 marred the collapse , the retracement after a fall of 68.35 big figures amounted to 19.67 big figures ( 28%.....not even a fibo number....) .

For all of you Fibo people the retracement of the overall move atained a 61.8 retracement in April 1988.........I dont know about you, but I dont think I could a wait that many years to see a position return to near profitability or minimise my loss...... I would have either died or gone insane by then.

Do Not believe you can trade without a stop......

now I am not saying this will happen with euro or cable but it shows that NO corrections, retracements do not need to happen
That's some big, bold font you have going.
  • #27,415
  • Edited 10:25pm Sep 4, 2008 10:13pm | Edited 10:25pm
Quoting Tmac
there have been times that others thought like you and paid the price.
Thanks, I can see the cable chart from here too. And as you mentioned - there WAS a retracement of about 1000 pips in the middle there.

Edit: In short 9.2, sl 15 pips tp 15-400.. lol

Edit2: Out of short with 3.7 pips, this thing's got a bit more energy than I thought, faked through weekly s3 (312) and this small channel's utl.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #27,416
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:24pm Sep 4, 2008 10:24pm
Ah, I miss this thread. The bickering, the fighting. I have been over at the guppy, nice fall today

See you guys at 1.40
  • #27,417
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:46pm Sep 4, 2008 10:46pm
Quoting Tmac
there have been times that others thought like you and paid the price.

take this fact for instance


The largest fall ever in one month for cable was in September of 1992... it fell from 2.0110 to 1.6815...the next month it then preceeded to fall from 1.7880 to a low of 1.5535...thus from high to low in two months it fell 45.75 big figures.....4,575 pips...yes you are seeing correctly...4575 pips on one position in 2 months.....

More startling is that the largest continual fall commenced in November of 1980 until February 1985......, where cable topped at 2.4540 and finally bottomed at 1.0463...a stagerring 140.77 big figuresor 14,077 pips.......only a brief rally from September until December 1982 marred the collapse , the retracement after a fall of 68.35 big figures amounted to 19.67 big figures ( 28%.....not even a fibo number....) .

For all of you Fibo people the retracement of the overall move atained a 61.8 retracement in April 1988.........I dont know about you, but I dont think I could a wait that many years to see a position return to near profitability or minimise my loss...... I would have either died or gone insane by then.

Do Not believe you can trade without a stop......

now I am not saying this will happen with euro or cable but it shows that NO corrections, retracements do not need to happen
Actually, this August is the biggest fall for cable.

The George Soros "Bank breaker" of 1992 did not close at the lows, but the month of august has.
  • #27,418
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:56pm Sep 4, 2008 10:56pm
Short with average price of 1.4279. Any opinions on whether to close and wait for a better entry or is this going in the money pretty soon (as in - a couple of hours)?
  • #27,419
  • Sep 4, 2008 11:01pm Sep 4, 2008 11:01pm
just wanted to say hi to everyone. newbie trader and gonna be stalking this forum to learn as much as possible.

i've been demo trading for about a year now but real money is a bit different needless to say. any good websites for newbies to read other than baby pips?

thanks guys. looking forward to that NFP tomo!
  • #27,420
  • Sep 4, 2008 11:03pm Sep 4, 2008 11:03pm
Just wondering,

Is there anyone who is not trading right now, because of the wild moves?

I made a huge profit in the beginning of august.

I haven't opened any positions since mid august because the market was starting to look very weird to me. I am cautious that way and that is why I think I am succeding in the currency market.

Take a look at this posts in end of july beginning of August by me regarding gbp/jpy and euro

#104158

#106286

#18404

I would have made a load if I would have held these trades till now.

I am not a pussy, but the market right now is very crazy. I am chossing to stay out of the market right now(except for small scalps).

I think staying out is also winning in a weird way
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