USD/JPY Discussion

Hopefully NFP will take us through 105 now we're out of the bear flag.

IMVHO I wouldn't still be FAVORING longs since the daily trendline is broken, unless you're a scalper. Just be careful.

I think the opening of the Asian session created this movement.

--> Actionforex.com
A fresh round of yen buying is seen pre Asian opens as markets are preparing for the Asian equity markets to open sharply lower. Selling accelerated together with oil's dive to 107 level on concern of contraction in global demands. Yen and to a much lesser extent the swissy are benefited by carry trade unwinding which saw respective crosses diving sharply throughout the US session.

3 currency pairs, over 350 pips.. large lots, what more could anyone want?
Why u complaining?

The firstthing you should always do when opening an account at a broker, is turn OFF their news feed. If you put your faith in their news, you will go broke..LOL.

I'm still bearish this pair (mainly due to the H&S formation), but 106.6 may be tough to drop through. It's exactly the 38.2% retrace of the downmove from 124.1-95.7. We need a bad number tomorrow!

Bro come on 106.6 was broken by 110pips

price action is crazy tonight ..

I agreed. By the time the news reach u..u are not the first, but likely already in the number millions to see this news.

Sir (Tiger hunter) last forecasting
i posted from few days ago to send to all the traders warning to let them know the trend direction.
a retrace happened in usd/yen and price prepare to go up
the lesson is no matter price head down will go up again
coz the trend are up.

I don't know where this pair is going, but it looks somewhat bearish at this time. Anyway this is either a breakdown or another probably gradual bull wave. What's more important is that if it's a bear there should be a very nice shorting opportunity, as I see it on the chart. Potential entry right below previous low with sl at the blue line and tps at the green lines or maybe even lower.

EDIT: I took a look at other yen crosses also, it would seem that both EJ and GJ are at serious historical s/r levels and we know also that EU and GU will fall some more but then there should be a sizable retracement in the near future. Thus, sizably retracing fiber and cable together with ranging in s/r area EJ and GJ with only small overall retracements should bring this thing down nicely. I personally prefer intraday trading but I will take this trade if it happens as it looks pretty good to me.

Also been reading the link below, though these guys are in a hurry in my opinion and a break of the current low should be a much much stronger confirmation and provide large momentum for a good entry.
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...637314449.html

I'm thinkig thaht we'll see usd/jpy very soon at 110 again

Possible...How Fannie/Fredd will contribute to it?

Just when I was convinced that going short with a t/p set at 105.50 was a good idea, you guys talk about 110 =-/

i was thinking that i'm the only one hahaha..

last day movement made me doubt about my short, plus the announcement on fennie and freddie this weekend..

The Japanese yen has been heavily bid in most corners of the currency market; and the volatility is only expected to increase going into next weekend. Looking at the liquid yen crosses, USDJPY doesn’t offer a good reflection of the Japanese currency or its direct link to risk sentiment and the carry trade. In fact, this pair has been more or less range bound because the other dominant theme in the market (buying dollars) has masked what is easily a market-wide crisis.
Heading into this past Friday’s close, rumors that the US government was working on a plan to bail out struggling mortgage behemoths Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the details of which were expected to be released as early as Saturday, led traders with risk-sensitive trades still open to panic. At the time of this writing, this is still an unsubstantiated quote from a WSJ article; but the market has been expecting this for some time (that and the collapse of a major US bank). No doubt, immobilized traders will be scanning the headlines all weekend long for confirmation of this story. Looking back to March, the Fed used the weekend to arrange its bailout of Bear Stearns; so investors had enough time to fully absorb the implications of the deal – and the markets were generally soothed by this action (it marked the bottom for USDJPY). However, this assist is far more complicated. Depending on the details of the no-doubt ‘creative’ plan the Fed would make, the government will have to take the responsibility for their combined $5 trillion in mortgages (few collections of banks could handle this load, and fewer would want to). This will be a considerable burden on the US government’s coffers and will in turn dim foreign investors’ view of the US government and economy. What’s more, a second bailout would be mere confirmation that conditions in the credit market have only worsened with time (not much of an argument when the banks have already tallied more than $500 billion in write downs). Expect this to be a burden on the dollar and carry if the rumors hold water.
Outside of the significant, aforementioned event risk, the yen will continue to feel the breeze from concerns over a cooling global economy and fading interest rate expectations. Fears that the global economy is grinding to a halt continue to spread from the speculative realm to the policy realm. With realizations that the 2Q US GDP numbers aren’t likely to be repeated, the UK and Euro-Zone are heading for worse and Japanese growth numbers will be revised lower, the appeal of the high-risk, low-reward carry strategy will certainly disappear. What’s more, there a dovish turn in global interest rates is lower the return for staying with such a risky trade. If the RBNZ cuts for a second consecutive meeting, it will almost certainly lead to a sharp carry unwinding. - JK


Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Questions? Comments? You can send them to [email protected].

Buy limit at

10714

10665

10626

10605

target 10900

stop for all at 10579

valid a week

Yes mima that's one of the reasone for my target 110 next week

who's daring enough to play the gap?

missing but still valid

sold at 10876 stop 10953 target 10740