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  • #27,121
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:18am Sep 4, 2008 9:18am
Quoting sdapastor
think this will retrace at all, anybody?

thanks,
M
if people knew for a fact. they would be rich. be patient, watch. hopefully it will show if it will.
  • #27,122
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:19am Sep 4, 2008 9:19am
when using a trailing stop loss of 15 pips i easily get taken out on good moves.do you guys think it is too tight
  • #27,123
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:20am Sep 4, 2008 9:20am
Quoting Russell
Here's a great post on risk management, in case you have not seen it.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post2199558
Even if your the worlds worst trader proper risk management will preserve your account long enough that you might actually learn something before you
empty it out.

LTCM was founded by John Meriwether.

A must read.

Thanks Russell.

The most important line in his post.

In fact, part of the problem in larger institutions and funds, is that the developers of the models to take profit do not understand the risk management side and vise versa. Its simple, if you overlook or mismanage risk, you will eventually lose all or too much of your account
  • #27,124
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:20am Sep 4, 2008 9:20am
Closed short at 4430
  • #27,125
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:20am Sep 4, 2008 9:20am
Quoting sdapastor
think this will retrace at all, anybody?

thanks,
M
I think it will.

What comes down so fast will come up at least in some way.

But personally I would long it only if it falls to 14400 for a short scalp
  • #27,126
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:28am Sep 4, 2008 9:28am
Quoting don.key
I think it will.

What comes down so fast will come up at least in some way.

But personally I would long it only if it falls to 14400 for a short scalp
thanks, have my sl trailing 15 pips behind
  • #27,127
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:31am Sep 4, 2008 9:31am
still watching. dont know if i want to jump back in. too scared of the retrace.
  • #27,128
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:34am Sep 4, 2008 9:34am
wow,what a jooly ride.i am out and content.where is it headed
  • #27,129
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:35am Sep 4, 2008 9:35am
Quoting kasper
still watching. dont know if i want to jump back in. too scared of the retrace.
man, I totally understand, I want to get back in but had my sl a little to tight, still in the positive, but it took them and then continued south like birds in a blizzard it is gone. How far south youu think it will go, just catch going up.


M
  • #27,130
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:40am Sep 4, 2008 9:40am
looks like it ran out of steam. unless this is a fake. but i think its going to retrace. will see after the next 5M candle close.
  • #27,131
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:44am Sep 4, 2008 9:44am
We have a lower low. Only few pips from yesterday but there are so much stops below this level that if the price goes down, it will go down fast.
  • #27,132
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:46am Sep 4, 2008 9:46am
wish i could jump back inside.those freaking stops of mine already taken.
  • #27,133
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:47am Sep 4, 2008 9:47am
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...R_USD+Spot.pngIt's Longer term Chart
{Promotion Removed}
  • #27,134
  • Sep 4, 2008 9:57am Sep 4, 2008 9:57am
crude ... up .. or down. opinion?

I think ........ up or even.

EDIT: thank god I dont make predictions for a living. i.e. weatherman / woman. =D
  • #27,135
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:03am Sep 4, 2008 10:03am
Or find this pair a parachute.
  • #27,136
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:03am Sep 4, 2008 10:03am
Quoting acumen
Or find this pair a parachute.
i'd rather find a parachute than expect someone to keep the floor stable. :-) but that's just me. and no, i dont have any positions open.
  • #27,137
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:05am Sep 4, 2008 10:05am
Quoting kasper
crude ... up .. or down. opinion?

I think ........ up or even.

EDIT: thank god I dont make predictions for a living. i.e. weatherman / woman. =D
Howling...

  • #27,138
  • Edited 10:22am Sep 4, 2008 10:07am | Edited 10:22am
Well, it seems that EURUSD will head down and down again in the months to come.

I believe it will decline lower at least until EURUSD 1.2800 (just my personal view), since the monthly upward trendline was broken at around 1.44-1.45.
In theory, the movement should extend at least down to 1.2800 (1,600 pips, equal to the width of the ascending triangle (from 1.6000 to 1.444).

I guess the large speculators are right after all (as can be seen from the CFTC reports). The source of the chart presented is timingcharts.com.

However, maybe we'll see some retracement in the next few days as there has hardly been any since the steep decline from 1.60, and it appears that there is a divergence between price and MACD histogram. However, I would definetely just short this pair in the months to come.

Anyway, the theory is simpler than practice as you can lose money in this market both if you are right regarding the direction and both if you are wrong so there are no certainties.

Good luck and all the best,

Bogdan
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc COT chart EURUSD.doc   72 KB | 415 downloads
  • #27,139
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:07am Sep 4, 2008 10:07am
ha what do i see
green pips green pips everywhere
143 is comin baby heh
moved SL to 4440 locked 90pips from averaged positions
  • #27,140
  • Sep 4, 2008 10:08am Sep 4, 2008 10:08am
Quoting don.key
I think it will.

What comes down so fast will come up at least in some way.

But personally I would long it only if it falls to 14400 for a short scalp
Mr. don.key, if you see the daily candle in 8/8/08 your statement may be wrong. Remember that part of this current USD strength is because Trichet speech last month. IMHO, and ss acumen said, better to wait for dust to settle down...
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