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  • #26,741
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:02pm Sep 3, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting Jurrasic
It could also be that euro got nervous as we're nearing 1.43 and seems like oil should get closer to 100 before it really bounces up, so it's preparing for that last fall..

1hr-15m suffices for that.
on the 15min chart to me it looks like this. we had a low at 1.4440, went all the way to 1.4500. then it retraced exactly to 61.8% fib but didnt break that value by one pip. 61.8% also happens to be at 1.4464...one pip below the crucial support 1.4465. therefore my analysis until that value is broken...bullish
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,742
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:05pm Sep 3, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting Srikanth
Looking at price action we are going up atleast to 1.46..But it's very risky to trade against major trend...
Srikanth, would you please explain your rationale? Would be a good learning exercise for me, and probably others.

Thanks,
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #26,743
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:11pm Sep 3, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting psiholog
on the 15min chart to me it looks like this. we had a low at 1.4440, went all the way to 1.4500. then it retraced exactly to 61.8% fib but didnt break that value by one pip. 61.8% also happens to be at 1.4464...one pip below the crucial support 1.4465. therefore my analysis until that value is broken...bullish
That sounds more like 1m to me.. And I don't use fibs, unless it's 3h/4h to daily and up, but since as of today I've sworn not to trade these tfs again - I don't use fibs.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #26,744
  • Edited 12:29pm Sep 3, 2008 12:17pm | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting Jurrasic
That sounds more like 1m to me.. And I don't use fibs, unless it's 3h/4h to daily and up, but since as of today I've sworn not to trade these tfs again - I don't use fibs.
i do use 1min candlesticks to see immediate tops bottoms however this fibs is based on 15min chart as those paint the clearest picture between short term and long term "the neutral zone" to me. fibs is the only indicator i use lol

Edit: fibs are good long term to determine long term supports resistances however for scalping like i do, short term, the current high to low or vice versa is most relevant

Double Edit: this fibs i just mentioned, it acts as a bridge in this critical area between possibly bear to bullish, or continuation of bearish, best to stay out it is an extremely dangerous area
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,745
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:27pm Sep 3, 2008 12:27pm
long or short better for now?
  • #26,746
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:31pm Sep 3, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting SpecialEd
Srikanth, would you please explain your rationale? Would be a good learning exercise for me, and probably others. Thanks,
Nor sure where he's getting his numbers, but on a 4hr fib, this is what it looks like using a longer price cycle for the high, and the most recent 4hr hi/lo's.

The orange fib is the same as the one I posted earlier, with the high from last week. I broke this down on a smaller 4 hr TF so you can see how that works intraday.

You'll see the 50% retrace of the larger orange cycle converges to within a few pips with the 138% extension of the most recent 4 hr swing hi/lo price action giving you the 4600 area (Green box). But with this bear move, that may be optimistic for the near future...

Those last two 4hr candles are interesting, but some pips are easier left on the table... imvo. Hope this helps some.
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  • #26,747
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:32pm Sep 3, 2008 12:32pm
Quoting SapphireBlue
long or short better for now?
my honest opinion, its long now, it looks like the inverted head and shoulder finished its second shoulder and the neckline is just becoming a support...that with fibs...im currently long
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,748
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:35pm Sep 3, 2008 12:35pm
I am going short at this point for tomorrow's rate announcement.
I think Trichet will again say something dovish to move it down so the europe export will be benefited from the falling Euro.
At this point, I am thinking fundamental not technical.
Anyone with me??????????
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  • #26,749
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:37pm Sep 3, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting psiholog
agreed....scalping especially is my favorite. longer term is irrelevant when trading in the moment. however...take a look at 4hour candlesticks...you say your short...how do you interpret that?

I took a look at the 4hour candles. I think I see what you do, assuming you are refering to the "potential" reversal pattern. Some on this forum call it a pin. The chart I looked at is plotted on GMT +/-0, so one side has not officially formed for me yet. I will be watching that pattern for confirmation and see if one sets up on the daily. Combined with the minor changes in the yield curve the last couple of days, I might consider the possiblility that a significant retrace could be developing. It is in my best interest to wait for confirmation before changing bias.

I too try not to look at too many variables or time frames because they conflict and confuse. Having utilized value trader tactics (stocks) for years, learning short term tactics has been a challenge.

Still short though, stops are tight.
Redefining Reality
  • #26,750
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:38pm Sep 3, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting ak4x
Nor sure where he's getting his numbers, but on a 4hr fib, this is what it looks like using a longer price cycle for the high, and the most recent 4hr hi/lo's.

The orange fib is the same as the one I posted earlier, with the high from last week. I broke this down on a smaller 4 hr TF so you can see how that works intraday.

You'll see the 50% retrace of the larger orange cycle converges to within a few pips with the 138% extension of the most recent 4 hr swing hi/lo price action giving you the 4600 area (Green box). But with this bear move, that may be optimistic for the near future...

Those last two 4hr candles are interesting, but some pips are easier left on the table... imvo. Hope this helps some.
Now that's a great premise and daxned well illustrated. I notice in both fibs though, that you used today's low. Didn't I understand you to say you don't typically use them until completed?

Thanks a lot for taking the time to do this. I think the 4600 is wishful thinking, but hey that's 4x.

Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #26,751
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:40pm Sep 3, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting piptechnician

I too try not to look at too many variables or time frames because they conflict and confuse. Having utilized value trader tactics (stocks) for years, learning short term tactics has been a challenge.
for me its the exact opposite. i mastered short term but long term kills me haha
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,752
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:41pm Sep 3, 2008 12:41pm
Hi All,

Got a question to ask since someone mention about H&S.......

H&S formation appear in which TF then consider valid??

Cos I heard from others on candle stick patter or other kind of formation...

The TF use must be at least 4hr in order for it to be valid.

Guys if you note please enlighten me

Thanks

Regards
  • #26,753
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:42pm Sep 3, 2008 12:42pm
Fellow traders.

Join me in requesting the moderator to get our friend Bruce back with his professional posts about ALL important matters to our trading success.

Maybe you can simply post a message here with the wording:

We wish Bruce back.

Good pips to all.

FreddyFX
  • #26,754
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:47pm Sep 3, 2008 12:47pm
I just noticed that todays bar might be a pin bar.. If this happens I'm closing my short and taking a test long position. Many hours still left, we'll see.

Quote
We wish Bruce back.

Please don't bring bruce back to this thread. He posts so much copypasta and turns this whole thread into personal fight. I have no problems of him having his own thread but please don't bring him back here.
  • #26,755
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:50pm Sep 3, 2008 12:50pm
Count me in... I wish Bruce back
  • #26,756
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:51pm Sep 3, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting Freddyfx
Fellow traders.

Join me in requesting the moderator to get our friend Bruce back with his professional posts about ALL important matters to our trading success.

Maybe you can simply post a message here with the wording:

We wish Bruce back.

Good pips to all.

FreddyFX

We wish Bruce back!!

lucas
  • #26,757
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:53pm Sep 3, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting Freddyfx
Fellow traders.

Join me in requesting the moderator to get our friend Bruce back with his professional posts about ALL important matters to our trading success.

Maybe you can simply post a message here with the wording:

We wish Bruce back.

Good pips to all.

FreddyFX
Please post something pertinent to EUR/USD. Thanks, and while you're at it, go find ShadowFX.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #26,758
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:54pm Sep 3, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting Freddyfx
Fellow traders.

Join me in requesting the moderator to get our friend Bruce back with his professional posts about ALL important matters to our trading success.

Maybe you can simply post a message here with the wording:

We wish Bruce back.

Good pips to all.

FreddyFX
i will say this because i could care less what anyone has to say about me, oh the humility of a 22 year old. i joined this forums simply because i need alot of work on "long term trading". long term is based off a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. as with technicals, fundamental can be selective, in other words find out what works for me best (which news) is my mission.

Bruce was always posting fundamental analysis. 90% of it made no sense to me or i found useless but the 10%...better then nothing right?

In other words...let the man speak will ya moderators
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,759
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:59pm Sep 3, 2008 12:59pm
We want Bruce to keep copy pasting all those news links! On some other forum..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #26,760
  • Sep 3, 2008 12:59pm Sep 3, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting mikkom



Please don't bring bruce back to this thread. He posts so much copypasta and turns this whole thread into personal fight. I have no problems of him having his own thread but please don't bring him back here.
With all due respect, Mikkom's post bears repeating.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
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