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  • #26,401
  • Sep 2, 2008 4:00pm Sep 2, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting psiholog
just woke up, heres my 2 cents on whats happening

1) fibonacci has played a great role lately, the push up came within one pip of 61.8% before coming back down, however it never went lower then 23.6% which has been strong points of continuation down.

2)last nights move down broke the lower wall of a longer term downwards channel for a steeper fall, now, its right outside that wall, (currently at 525), so until that wall is broken, we may see sideways trend or still bearish sentiment.

3)oil going up should help the euro

4)the news is a catalyst, the rumor of the news is a catalyst, direction unknown

im currently standing aside for better entry point with bullish bias
You are correct... we bounced off of 61.8%-78.6% area.

Here is how I view it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9-2-2008 1-56-19 PM.png Size: 46 KB
  • #26,402
  • Edited 6:00pm Sep 2, 2008 4:05pm | Edited 6:00pm
nice interpretation, thanks, gives me a good idea of how high it could go if 550 is broken

Edit: btw it looks like a triangle has formed since 23.6% was broken, bottom trend line starting at 492 with connecting point at 498, uppertrend line starting at 546 connecting point at 536, pattern within patterns, sorry i cant upload



Edit again: interesting side note about this triangle...with 546 being the top and 492 the bottom that is 54 peeps total. the halfway point is top -27 pips or bottom +27....that value happens to be 515....
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,403
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:16pm Sep 2, 2008 6:16pm
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nmIuQsC9b-...itled++777.bmp
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  • #26,404
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:20pm Sep 2, 2008 6:20pm
break of the triangle, break of the longer term down trendline, if this isnt a falsie we may see 546 again (61.8fib retrace on last move), possibly higher
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,405
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:28pm Sep 2, 2008 6:28pm
Quoting psiholog
nice interpretation, thanks, gives me a good idea of how high it could go if 550 is broken

Edit: btw it looks like a triangle has formed since 23.6% was broken, bottom trend line starting at 492 with connecting point at 498, uppertrend line starting at 546 connecting point at 536, pattern within patterns, sorry i cant upload



Edit again: interesting side note about this triangle...with 546 being the top and 492 the bottom that is 54 peeps total. the halfway point is top -27 pips or bottom +27....that value happens to be 515....
Iam sorry for my ignorance, but what this numbers means?, from where they come? "bottom trend line starting at 492 with connecting point at 498, uppertrend line starting at 546 connecting point at 536", thanks and iam sorry.
  • #26,406
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:34pm Sep 2, 2008 6:34pm
new patterns are formed all the time, they create breakout points. the last pattern to develop was a triangle, those points are used to draw the lines for the triangle since i cannot upload, make sense now? (for example the move up just now happened when the triangle was broken)
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,407
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:38pm Sep 2, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting psiholog
new patterns are formed all the time, they create breakout points. the last pattern to develop was a triangle, those points are used to draw the lines for the triangle since i cannot upload, make sense now? (for example the move up just now happened when the triangle was broken)
I understand that part, what i dont understand is for example 492= 1.4920 ?, thanks for your help.
  • #26,408
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:41pm Sep 2, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting k9doog
I understand that part, what i dont understand is for example 492= 1.4920 ?, thanks for your help.
oh lol, my bad im lazy...492=1.4492......546=1.4546 and so on

Edit: one other thing to consider, most of the time after a breakout, that resistance or support gets retested to see if it was a false break or not, such moments are the best entry points in my opinion
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,409
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:46pm Sep 2, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting psiholog
oh lol, my bad im lazy...492=1.4492......546=1.4546 and so on
Thank you, now i can understand what everybody is talking.
  • #26,410
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:50pm Sep 2, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting k9doog
Thank you, now i can understand what everybody is talking.
just me talking, having conversations with myself is my expertise in this lonely forex world
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,411
  • Sep 2, 2008 6:54pm Sep 2, 2008 6:54pm
When is this thing going to stop ranging and pick a direction.. I'm tired of watching the screen.
  • #26,412
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:00pm Sep 2, 2008 7:00pm
Quoting greywolf238
When is this thing going to stop ranging and pick a direction.. I'm tired of watching the screen.
When enough people get tired and enter the market

Think about it... if you were a power player and there are no stops to be taken out why move the market?
  • #26,413
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:06pm Sep 2, 2008 7:06pm
Quoting charlinks
When enough people get tired and enter the market

Think about it... if you were a power player and there are no stops to be taken out why move the market?
lol your so right....if i noticed that triangle formation and the breakout, imagine how many others did and out of all how many entered long with tight stop loss?, alot of money was just made by them "power players"
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #26,414
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:08pm Sep 2, 2008 7:08pm
Quoting greywolf238
When is this thing going to stop ranging and pick a direction.. I'm tired of watching the screen.
everyones tired with 2 day market...hopefully today market batter to recover our lost...
  • #26,415
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:13pm Sep 2, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting greywolf238
When is this thing going to stop ranging and pick a direction.. I'm tired of watching the screen.
US session has closed and Asian session has gotten completely underway yet.
  • #26,416
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:20pm Sep 2, 2008 7:20pm
When Oil was at 140/barrel I was ranting about the bubble.

I authored several posts that detailed why oil will fall.

I'm updating that call.

I said oil would touch 100/barrel by years end.

It will be at 100/barrel before September ends.

Now I'm calling for oil at 85/barrel by April.

Mike
  • #26,417
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:22pm Sep 2, 2008 7:22pm
It has so far failed to convincingly break the 4500 psyche level. I'm thinking that this thing is going to head down sooner than expected.
  • #26,418
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:27pm Sep 2, 2008 7:27pm
Quoting acumen
When Oil was at 140/barrel I was ranting about the bubble.

I authored several posts that detailed why oil will fall.

I'm updating that call.

I said oil would touch 100/barrel by years end.

It will be at 100/barrel before September ends.

Now I'm calling for oil at 85/barrel by April.

Mike
Incidentally. If that is the case then one would expect inflation to go down around the world and therefore putting more money into the pockets of everyday people. Hmm...I'm just trying to think of how else that would affect a country's economy.

Obviously with oil going down, odds are that gold will go down and the EURO will go down with those two.

But with more money in the pockets of everyday people due to paying less for gas at the pumps, this could still cause inflation to rise?--therefore putting pressure on governments to increase interest rates?

I'm just thinking aloud
  • #26,419
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:28pm Sep 2, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting acumen
When Oil was at 140/barrel I was ranting about the bubble.

I authored several posts that detailed why oil will fall.

I'm updating that call.

I said oil would touch 100/barrel by years end.

It will be at 100/barrel before September ends.

Now I'm calling for oil at 85/barrel by April.

Mike
Bold statement. I like bold statements though...

If that's true...

What would EURUSD do? 1.43 then 1.38?
  • #26,420
  • Sep 2, 2008 7:30pm Sep 2, 2008 7:30pm
Sounds like Brazil has plenty of oil. 55 billion barrels worth.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26180366/for/cnbc/
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