USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY - same procedure as last year?

http://usera.imagecave.com/bidara/uj-1908.gif

To repeat what we have cautioned recently, “the USDJPY simply has the ‘look’ of a top (head and shoulders). Only a break out of the 108-110.50 range is going to clarify directionality. It is worth mentioning though that 3 month volatility is at its lowest since the last late December. Low volatility historically indicates a high probability that a sharp drop is around the corner for the USDJPY.” A break below 108.12 looks imminent as rallies have failed at lower and lower levels for the last week.

From Dailyfx

On the monthly/weekly we're at 3 major confluences. One minor confluence.

1. We are touching the bottom of the 13 yr trendline which has formed a massive corrective triangle over the past 20 years.

2. Price has touched and is hovering below the 61.8% fibo from the high to the low of the triangle.

3. We're hovering below the 50% fibo of the move from 124.16 to 95.74.

The other minor confluence is that on the weekly chart we have touched the upper bollinger band.

Now on the 4 hour chart our Head and shoulders formation is between two psychological levels of 110 and 108, and as everyone knows we're looking for a confirmation of the top, on a break of 108.

So H&S patterns once confirmed have an 80% chance of completing. If it completes I expect a move to 106.50, then a bounce back to the neckline to 108. That's when I'll be expecting price to stall and eventually a break of the daily trendline from 95.74.

I'm expecting a large move because of the break of the large monthly triangle and the classic retest of the triangle's bottom trendline. This move could possibly go under the previous low. As always I'll be the first to say I could be 100% wrong.

Good luck everyone.

I'm going to say down because we've been making consecutive lower highs in the closing during this week. 103 here we come.

+the storm that will bring crude higher...


sonic

Thank you for putting up your charts...

I am agree with Donadoney. Now we are in a toptrend (in this case, the uptrend from this year bottom) The point is the break of the 2 large trendlines.
I don't think if dollar is strong enough in longterm to make it. the monthly chart shows a complete pullback after the BIG bearish triangle formation. and the target should be bearish for almost 4500 pips (the move of the first big downtrend in the triangle) so the 65 yens could be a fundamental support price (fundamental because i don't imagine dollar in almost 50 yens without ruining the exports of many countries).

I made this analisis in september of 2007. all targets i see was touched one by one.
http://forum.fxopen.com/showthread.php?t=9410



below 107.50-107.30 dollar would be vulnerable for large downtrend searching for a new low ever.
above 117 would be strong enough to more uptrend. till 124 at least, then 143, then 161 yens.

But this is only technical analisis. Trading is not only technical or only fundamental.


PD: could you imagine GJ if GU downtrend continues in this way, and UJ starts a new downtrend?

Yup. I'm still short

Update monthly chart - usd/jpy

Hi to all experience traders. Izit true that when oil price rises, UJ will follow because JPY will have to buy more dollars to buy oil?

I think this says it all.

J

Daily chart usd/jpy

Can you please tell which time frame corresponds to that graphic.

Tks

ANA

No, just the opposite. When oil prices rise, UJ will fall b/c oil is pegged to dollar.

Its a 4 hr channel. You can see it on the top left corner of the chart.

Jim

Closed at 108.80 on Friday, opened with a gap down, at 108.48. Approximately 32pips.

Opened when? I can't see it on my screen.

price even now 108.43

Depends on your broker.