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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #5,281
  • Aug 28, 2008 7:06am Aug 28, 2008 7:06am
Quoting moneda
I am watching the aud/usd 4hr IB with less than 20 min before close.
Great chart and analysis, Moneda!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,282
  • Aug 28, 2008 7:09am Aug 28, 2008 7:09am
Quoting moneda
I am watching the aud/usd 4hr IB with less than 20 min before close. At the moment is butting agaisnt the weekly open line (pink) which is also acting as a significant resistance area ....so I will consider going either way with it. The stop loss will be around 30 pips which is not bad for a 4hr. IB.
Moneda, that's what makes that H4 IB interesting - have a look at H1 IBs stacking up!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h1.gif Size: 19 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,283
  • Aug 28, 2008 7:35am Aug 28, 2008 7:35am
Quoting Forex007
Moneda, that's what makes that H4 IB interesting - have a look at H1 IBs stacking up!
Forex007 and others,

Yes, Iam in short...cancelled my long and now we will see what follows. I also noticed that your MACD was in an overbought zone. Did you go for it?

Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #5,284
  • Edited 8:32am Aug 28, 2008 8:04am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting moneda
Forex007 and others,

Yes, Iam in short...cancelled my long and now we will see what follows. I also noticed that your MACD was in an overbought zone. Did you go for it?

Yes, I went short too. I wanted to jump in right away, but set a stop order at 8450 (was filled in at 8446 due to that big spike). My other reasons for short were: the price retraced to 61.8 Fibo by then, it had problem driving through (as you well spotted, Moneda) weekly open, the price was too far away from H4 and H1 trendlines, as well as from SMA20.

The price is back in the range, my SL is at 8586, we'll see - overall, the setup looks pretty solid from H1 and H4 perspectives.

EDIT: SL was hit - that was the quickest DIBS loss (both H1 and H4) I've seen this week Looks like banks are collecting SLs around that range... I see no major "fundamental" reasons for AUD-USD to go long today, as the US GDP report today was good, so the dollar should strengthen.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,285
  • Aug 28, 2008 8:48am Aug 28, 2008 8:48am
AUD-USD had a similar ranging day with multiple IBs on 18 August. It was almost identical to today's moves.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h1 18 aug.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h1.gif Size: 19 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,286
  • Aug 28, 2008 12:54pm Aug 28, 2008 12:54pm
Hi Guys,

Today most of the pairs breakouts was wrong because of the chopy price actions

regards tsidki.
  • #5,287
  • Aug 28, 2008 2:25pm Aug 28, 2008 2:25pm
Quoting tsidki
Hi Guys,

Today most of the pairs breakouts was wrong because of the chopy price actions

regards tsidki.

It's all part of the game my friend... in my opinion you just got to keep up with the trades and trade like a machine, don't second guess many of the IBs just take em and set your SL, they get hit and then move on to other IBs where they can reap benefits many pips more than the losses...

Pred
  • #5,288
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:21pm Aug 28, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting Predator38
It's all part of the game my friend... in my opinion you just got to keep up with the trades and trade like a machine, don't second guess many of the IBs just take em and set your SL, they get hit and then move on to other IBs where they can reap benefits many pips more than the losses...

Pred
yah I agree 100%

regards tsidki
  • #5,289
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:26pm Aug 28, 2008 3:26pm
Provided one re-entered the trade after the spike (I did - based on H1 chart as well as some other "clues"), it was a good H4IB trade, from R/R ratio point of view.

The trade is still "on" (I kept 1/4 of the position), we'll see how low will it go tmrw.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4.gif Size: 23 KB
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,290
  • Aug 28, 2008 3:30pm Aug 28, 2008 3:30pm
Quoting Predator38
It's all part of the game my friend... in my opinion you just got to keep up with the trades and trade like a machine, don't second guess many of the IBs just take em and set your SL, they get hit and then move on to other IBs where they can reap benefits many pips more than the losses...
When taking H1 IBs, you could try (just my suggestions, NOT new/additional rules): (a) re-enter (if potential R/R ratio is strong), (b) zoom to M15 to see where/how the price moves (if you know what to look for); (c) check for any relevant trendline approach/breakout; (d) increase SL (it was mentioned before that banks and hedge funds "hunt" for stop losses around obvious points; I suspect IBs are on their "target" list).

If the direction of the trade is right, the price will move there (eventually...). And yes, I agree that DIBS is profitable long-term, one simply needs to keep trading ujsing the same parameters.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,291
  • Aug 28, 2008 5:11pm Aug 28, 2008 5:11pm
As I suspected, almost all H1 IB had H1 IBs "hidden" within - i.e. when you analyse H4 by switching to H1, you can see H1 IBs formed prior to H4 one, during or immediately after.

That means that most of the morning (GMT) H4 IBs could be traded keeping H1 IB in mind. But then I cannot see any advantage of using H4 TF - it's not obvious that you can stay in trade longer with H4 then with H1; in fact, keeping the trade for longer (using H4) could mean less profit compared to H1.

Also, R/R ratio with H4 is not that much better then H1.

As for the late afternoon/evening H4 IBs, switching to H1 does not help much as "normal" H1 rules wouldn't apply after London's close. Again, R/R ration does not seem good.

That brings us back to the subject I mentioned earlier - DIBS refers to "daily". Using IB, we are catching breakout within ADR. I don't know what we could catch using H4...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,292
  • Aug 28, 2008 6:14pm Aug 28, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting Forex007
As I suspected, almost all H1 IB had H1 IBs "hidden" within - i.e. when you analyse H4 by switching to H1, you can see H1 IBs formed prior to H4 one, during or immediately after.

That means that most of the morning (GMT) H4 IBs could be traded keeping H1 IB in mind. But then I cannot see any advantage of using H4 TF - it's not obvious that you can stay in trade longer with H4 then with H1; in fact, keeping the trade for longer (using H4) could mean less profit compared to H1.

Also, R/R ratio with H4 is not that much better then H1.

As for the late afternoon/evening H4 IBs, switching to H1 does not help much as "normal" H1 rules wouldn't apply after London's close. Again, R/R ration does not seem good.

That brings us back to the subject I mentioned earlier - DIBS refers to "daily". Using IB, we are catching breakout within ADR. I don't know what we could catch using H4...

Forex007 and others,

Excellent observations... Next week I will also keep a watch for 4hr IBs starting with the 00:00 gmt candle(8pm est). My trade (see chart)was also stopped out when price went 7pips above my stoploss (white line) I considered giving myself a bit more of breathing room considering that area of resistance included up to .8695..oh well...live and learn . I think that I would have reentered again like you did 007 but I was not by my computer. I am also weighing the pros and cons of trading the 4hr timeframe.

See you guys tomorrow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 16 KB
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #5,293
  • Aug 29, 2008 2:29am Aug 29, 2008 2:29am
Quoting jarroo
Tell me again your still in this DIBS trade. If your not, lie to me.
I would never lie to you

I've been hiking in the swedish mountains for the last 4 days so i've missed alot. I just saw that my trailing stop was hit at 1.8515 with a total of +250 pips, not to bad! I could however have been more if i had widen my stop using 4hour NRTR_ATR as stop but since i was going away it felt better to lock in more profit

I can see there have been some activity in this thread the last couple of days
  • #5,294
  • Aug 29, 2008 2:37am Aug 29, 2008 2:37am
Quoting Toccata
If proof was ever needed just see attached chart for an IB on swissy that has just occurred. The day is up so you would trade LONG. BUT, the ATR for the day is already at 99% of the 3-day average making it a much higher risk trade. So its time to pass. Someone was asking about EUR - this is at +130% using the same filter.

Now look where swissy has gone.
I like this ATR-indicator with the percentage written in the top left corner. Could you or someone pls post it ?
  • #5,295
  • Aug 29, 2008 3:02am Aug 29, 2008 3:02am
DIBS on cable... I have my sell stoporders in place!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #5,296
  • Aug 29, 2008 3:39am Aug 29, 2008 3:39am
Quoting ekling
I like this ATR-indicator with the percentage written in the top left corner. Could you or someone pls post it ?
I have this indicator that I use, it shows a few different things .
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Range.mq4   3 KB | 1,031 downloads
  • #5,297
  • Aug 29, 2008 4:27am Aug 29, 2008 4:27am
Quoting NowAndLater
I have this indicator that I use, it shows a few different things .
Thanks mate!
  • #5,298
  • Aug 29, 2008 5:09am Aug 29, 2008 5:09am
Quoting Forex007
As I suspected, almost all H1 IB had H1 IBs "hidden" within - i.e. when you analyse H4 by switching to H1, you can see H1 IBs formed prior to H4 one, during or immediately after.

That means that most of the morning (GMT) H4 IBs could be traded keeping H1 IB in mind. But then I cannot see any advantage of using H4 TF - it's not obvious that you can stay in trade longer with H4 then with H1; in fact, keeping the trade for longer (using H4) could mean less profit compared to H1.

Also, R/R ratio with H4 is not that much better then H1.

As for the late afternoon/evening H4 IBs, switching to H1 does not help much as "normal" H1 rules wouldn't apply after London's close. Again, R/R ration does not seem good.

That brings us back to the subject I mentioned earlier - DIBS refers to "daily". Using IB, we are catching breakout within ADR. I don't know what we could catch using H4...
Hi F7

That about sums up what I have found as I have looked at the 4hr. Spent a few days looking back...always difficult to do when we would be looking up and down the TF's when the IBs occur: just couldn't see any obvious 'handle' to hook it on like the 1H-Daily open....maybe we are missing something.....PC said it should be viable on any of the higher timeframes

I'm looking back on the weekly....oh to be trading in the 80's loads of pips to be had
  • #5,299
  • Aug 29, 2008 5:56am Aug 29, 2008 5:56am
Hi ekling,

I see your chart attached in the forum, and the indicatore that shows the opening price.

Are you sure that it is correctly setted at 06:00 gmt?
money... it's a gas baby, can't you take it! venezia
  • #5,300
  • Aug 29, 2008 6:51am Aug 29, 2008 6:51am
Quoting mrmarco
Hi ekling,

I see your chart attached in the forum, and the indicatore that shows the opening price.

Are you sure that it is correctly setted at 06:00 gmt?
Hi! Yes its correct, because my broker is set at gmt+1 i have to add one hour on the chart to reflect 06:00 gmt. If i would have set my open at 06:00 on the chart, that would reflect 05:00 gmt in reality. But thanks for the concern!
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