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  • #24,201
  • Aug 26, 2008 7:51pm Aug 26, 2008 7:51pm
Quoting Shugart
Broke EMA 25, Ichimoku was expecting it. It had been channeling all evening. And to top it off it retraced, as expected, to the fib between 8/25/08 12:00, and todays low.

Far from gambling.

Shugart
Yet another self-proclaimed TA guru. The dollar dropped against just about EVERY currency in the same amount of time. I'm sure you can give me a handful of reasons why that happened too, based on their respective charts. I say someone freaked out and pulled the plug and this move will probably be reversed big time in about 5 hours.
  • #24,202
  • Aug 26, 2008 7:55pm Aug 26, 2008 7:55pm
It is easy to call someone else out for not providing specifics when you don't provide any yourself.

I will plainly tell you I don't know why this or that move happen. But I do know which way the trend is going at any particular time and not to trade against it.

And that is about all anyone needs to trade.
  • #24,203
  • Aug 26, 2008 7:56pm Aug 26, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting Subdude
Yet another self-proclaimed TA guru. The dollar dropped against just about EVERY currency in the same amount of time. I'm sure you can give me a handful of reasons why that happened too, based on their respective charts. I say someone freaked out and pulled the plug and this move will probably be reversed big time in about 5 hours.

I agree. This will retrace, and it's not permanent. No surprises there.

If I had to take a guess at this, it's just some bank unwinding a big short.
  • #24,204
  • Aug 26, 2008 7:57pm Aug 26, 2008 7:57pm
00:11 EUR/USD: Moving Higher As Early Asia Selling USD Sydney, August 27: The EUR/USD has moved above hourly resistance at 1.4655 on profit taking flows after a few analysts in Asia warned that there was a Tom DeMark technical signal on the US dollar index suggesting a top was forming. This contention is disputed by other DeMark analysts saying that the signal is incomplete and it is premature to suggest that a sell signal has been triggered.
Key hourly resistance is found at the pullback high at 1.4680 and a break above that level would relieve the downward pressure and target 1.4710/20.
  • #24,205
  • Aug 26, 2008 7:58pm Aug 26, 2008 7:58pm
Quoting SunTrader
I will plainly tell you I don't know why this or that move happen. But I do know which way the trend is going at any particular time and not to trade against it.
Oh really? So we must be in an uptrend now, based on your statement?
  • #24,206
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:04pm Aug 26, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
the charts i trade off look just like these ... some say they are way to complicated ...lol .... I do add fib retracements and extensions and use a grid system of 30 pips that is based on daily pivot numbers
thank you ...

btw is tulip still suspended ?
  • #24,207
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:05pm Aug 26, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting Subdude
Oh really? So we must be in an uptrend now, based on your statement?
No.
  • #24,208
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:07pm Aug 26, 2008 8:07pm
BTW here is the Tom DeMark sell signal the news service was referring to and they are right it is not confirmed yet.

TD Sell Sequential 13:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXYdaily.PNG Size: 29 KB
  • #24,209
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:10pm Aug 26, 2008 8:10pm
Notice right above the red 13 the cyan colored nbr 1, which leaves the possibility of a new higher setup completing but even if that doesn't happen there needs to be a trigger to initiate entry on sell setup.

Which obviously would mean go long EU.
  • #24,210
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:11pm Aug 26, 2008 8:11pm
Quoting acumen
Hit print screen on your keyboard.
Open up paint.
Save as .gif (much smaller)
You don't need Paint. Just right-click on the chart (if you're using MT4). Click Save as Picture. Click Save Active Chart. Choose 600x400. Save it to your desktop. Then when you post your message, go down to the bottom in FF and click Manage Attachments. Pretty self-explanatory from there.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #24,211
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:11pm Aug 26, 2008 8:11pm
Quoting SunTrader
BTW here is the Tom DeMark sell signal the news service was referring to and they are right it is not confirmed yet.

TD Sell Sequential 13:
does this need to go over 13 to trigger a sell signal as shown in the posted chart..

good post..
  • #24,212
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:15pm Aug 26, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting tamster
00:11 EUR/USD: Moving Higher As Early Asia Selling USD Sydney, August 27: The EUR/USD has moved above hourly resistance at 1.4655 on profit taking flows after a few analysts in Asia warned that there was a Tom DeMark technical signal on the US dollar index suggesting a top was forming. This contention is disputed by other DeMark analysts saying that the signal is incomplete and it is premature to suggest that a sell signal has been triggered.
Key hourly resistance is found at the pullback high at 1.4680 and a break above that level would relieve the downward pressure and target 1.4710/20.
good post explaining this move.
  • #24,213
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:22pm Aug 26, 2008 8:22pm
Quoting akirax
does this need to go over 13 to trigger a sell signal as shown in the posted chart..

good post..
A sell trigger can be anything you prefer like a down close, close below yesterday's low etc but to avoid a recycle of a new sell setup happening TD advises a conservative approach is to wait for a "price flip" which would be close below the close of 4 days ago.

Right now that would mean below the close of the big red candle 76.20. But I think better would be to watch tomorrow's (Thursday's) close to see if it is below that of 8/22/08 close big green candle showing 76.81

Otherwise it can continue going higher, but 13 is the setup itself. Nothing but a entry is needed.
  • #24,214
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:25pm Aug 26, 2008 8:25pm
Oh boy, now it gets interesting. Working on another chart. Post in a few.
  • #24,215
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:27pm Aug 26, 2008 8:27pm
Quoting SunTrader
A sell trigger can be anything you prefer like a down close, close below yesterday's low etc but to avoid a recycle of a new sell setup happening TD advises a conservative approach is to wait for a "price flip" which would be close below the close of 4 days ago.

Right now that would mean below the close of the big red candle 76.20. But I think better would be to watch tomorrow's (Thursday's) close to see if it is below that of 8/22/08 close big green candle showing 76.81

Otherwise it can continue going higher, but 13 is the setup itself. Nothing but a entry is needed.
thanks Suntrader
  • #24,216
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:28pm Aug 26, 2008 8:28pm
Quoting SpecialEd
You don't need Paint. Just right-click on the chart (if you're using MT4). Click Save as Picture. Click Save Active Chart. Choose 600x400. Save it to your desktop. Then when you post your message, go down to the bottom in FF and click Manage Attachments. Pretty self-explanatory from there.
You can print screen anything.

m
  • #24,217
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:29pm Aug 26, 2008 8:29pm
Other than the T/A reason suntrader posted, here is another POV thats more fundamental...

----
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...2o&refer=funds

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro on speculation weakening business and consumer spending will discourage the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.

.........
  • #24,218
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:39pm Aug 26, 2008 8:39pm
Ok first I have to say that Tom DeMark techniques, like anything else, is not 100%.

Here is a 4hr US$ chart with another TD Sell Sequential 13 as well as another new 9 bar sell setup trying to complete. The current 4hr bar closes at 12:00 am EST and the way it is looking will be a down close. The text shows the close of 4 bars ago of 77.56. If the current bar continues the way it is it will close below this amount and confirm sell and if it also drops below the red line on swing low it should continue retracing the strong upmove it has been having for the past month.

This in turn will confirm the sell setup on the daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY240min.PNG Size: 33 KB
  • #24,219
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:39pm Aug 26, 2008 8:39pm
Quoting akirax
Other than the T/A reason suntrader posted, here is another POV thats more fundamental...

----
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...2o&refer=funds

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro on speculation weakening business and consumer spending will discourage the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.

.........
Or this
Sorry meant to post headline: Dollar Falls on Speculation U.S. Durable Goods Orders Stalled Last Month

Dollar Falls on Speculation Reports to Show Flagging Spending
By Stanley White

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro on speculation weakening business and consumer spending will discourage the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.

The greenback retreated from a two-year high against the British pound as economists forecast U.S. data this week will show declines in durable goods orders and consumption. The Australian dollar rebounded from an 11-month low as rising Asian stocks gave investors confidence to buy higher-yielding assets in a nation profiting from commodity exports to China and India.

``The numbers coming up are a reason to push the dollar lower,'' said Toru Tokoyoda, head of foreign exchange sales in Tokyo at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ``There are doubts about the U.S. economy.''
  • #24,220
  • Aug 26, 2008 8:44pm Aug 26, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting seesaw
Or this
Sorry meant to post headline: Dollar Falls on Speculation U.S. Durable Goods Orders Stalled Last Month

Dollar Falls on Speculation Reports to Show Flagging Spending
By Stanley White

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro on speculation weakening business and consumer spending will discourage the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.

The greenback retreated from a two-year high against the British pound as economists forecast U.S. data this week will show declines in durable goods orders and consumption. The Australian dollar rebounded from an 11-month low as rising Asian stocks gave investors confidence to buy higher-yielding assets in a nation profiting from commodity exports to China and India.

``The numbers coming up are a reason to push the dollar lower,'' said Toru Tokoyoda, head of foreign exchange sales in Tokyo at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ``There are doubts about the U.S. economy.''
I hope Toru keeps selling dollars.
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