EURUSD

Quoting cobraforex

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Funny thing, I was talking about that move 10 hours ago and cashed 80 net pips:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23547

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Quoting trading801

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i guess my trigger happy comes frmo the fact that i always ALWAYS miss out on the start of a trend.. now i am so worried that i always click on the sign of any fast movement..

like now, am worried when the news come, the pips drop 50 within say 5 mins.. and its all over.. no more for me HEH

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Quoting SunTrader

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Some people after losing many times decide maybe if they just do the opposite they will turn into a winner. Life is never that simple.

What they need to do is trade their setup the opposite way, not opposite direction. For instance with the trend being down for a while instead of trying to go short as the market goes lower, try to determine a place to go short on a retrace back up.

Here is a 4hr chart showing a nice setup, retrace with one bar right to 50%, next bar barely goes above, then closes back below 50% level. Also red declining trendline from prior swing high was in the way. Bing, down 2 4hr bars so far. With very little risk. This can be learned by anyone. But not by asking hey should I go long/short or shong as Moe liked to say.

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Quoting mhughes104

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There is a saying " I would rather be wishing to be in a trade then praying to be out of one"

So dont worry about missing a trade there will always be more around the corner

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Quoting mikegonzalez

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Do you draw fibonacci from highest to lowest or lowest to highest?

Thanks

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Quoting SunTrader

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Yes, I do. Both.

Meaning I draw fibs swing low back upto previous swing high 0-100% to look for retracements up and draw them from swing high back down to previous swing low 0-100% to look for retracements down.

That is the only way. Otherwise when you are looking for a retrace back up and the levels are 61.8% / 50% / 38.2% moving up, how can you have a 61.8% retrace before a 50% or 38.2%. And vice versa.

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Quoting SunTrader

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Yes, I do. Both.

Meaning I draw fibs swing low back upto previous swing high 0-100% to look for retracements up and draw them from swing high back down to previous swing low 0-100% to look for retracements down.

That is the only way. Otherwise when you are looking for a retrace back up and the levels are 61.8% / 50% / 38.2% moving up, how can you have a 61.8% retrace before a 50% or 38.2%. And vice versa.

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Quoting SpecialEd

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Suntrader, that's good info, thanks. I have noticed for sometime that fibs are drawn from period highs to lows, or vice versa. What date ranges do you typically draw? 1 day hi/lo? 3 days? 1 week? 2 weeks? more?

If anyone cares to answer and elaborate, I think those of us who are pretty new would get a lot out of it. I know there is a fib thread on FF, but simple explanation would help.

Thanks,
Ed

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Quoting trading801

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bro.. i can sense its a good post but it is a little too difficult for me.. can you pls kindly try to explain to me in layman terms.. i am trying to digest for sometime now..

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Quoting SunTrader

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The chart I posted, with the blue square box, showed an ideal spot to go short. Most traders look to go short when the market is going down. Instead of this point when the market is going up. Why, because to them it doesn't make sense. "Go short as the market is going up. Are you nuts".

That is why most traders lose. Even the ones who are trying to go short. They have the right idea. Just the wrong entry at the wrong time.
They are doing the opposite of what should be done.

This is the most important thing to learn about trading. Most lose so don't do what most do. Well that and money and trade management and patience and continued learning and understanding yourself and ................... on and on.

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Quoting SpecialEd

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Suntrader, that's good info, thanks. I have noticed for sometime that fibs are drawn from period highs to lows, or vice versa. What date ranges do you typically draw? 1 day hi/lo? 3 days? 1 week? 2 weeks? more?

If anyone cares to answer and elaborate, I think those of us who are pretty new would get a lot out of it. I know there is a fib thread on FF, but simple explanation would help.

Thanks,
Ed

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Quoting Shugart

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So based on this, would you say that usdjpy is a good short right now ?

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Quoting SunTrader

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I draw them on 1hr, 4hr, and daily.

Now something I learned from a Tom DeMark book (the guy is the best IMO) how to determine what points to use to draw fibs from. Obviously you use swing highs and lows. Some uses multiple fibs. I used to, no longer.

The 4hr chart I earlier posted - there is the swing low around 1.47 (1.4695 to be exact depending on your data). You then look to the right to see when the last time price was lower. Turns out to be 8/20 Thurday. Then find the high point (1.4908) in between Monday low and last Thursday lower low.

I know it can be, most times, pretty obvious which high (or low if other direction) to use. But doing it this way makes it very obvious and no ambiguity if 2 different people looking at the same chart plot their fibs seperately they should still be the same.

Hope that helps.

I got to get a couple hours sleep. Be around later.

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Quoting riz79fx

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eu is still going down....but gonna be double bottom...hmmmm.........

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Quoting trading801

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folks what time are you placing your positions... after the 2 news or the 4 news?

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