james16 Chart Thread | Page 656 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,101
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:16am Aug 25, 2008 8:16am
Quoting ghous
to fix the gap that may have been created due to disripency in drawing the TL

i would love to post a few charts for you but due to time constaints i am unable to do that (will need to edit them and add in some text), if i do get the time during the week (hope so..) i'll throw in a few... stay tuned...
Thanks for your view, Ghous; greatly appreciate it.

As for different ways of drawing TLs, that's exactly what DeMark covered in his books, i.e. he proposed the rules which, if followed, will produce identical TLs when drawn by diff.traders. In a nutshell: start from right and go left, connect two nearest highs surrounded to the left AND to the right by lower highs. There are some exceptions, though.

Chart will be very helpful indeed, especially to illustrate how you use momentum. I am looking forward to it.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,102
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:26am Aug 25, 2008 8:26am
Quoting Forex007
Hi guys,

Do you consider TL breakout as a PA? If so, do you still look for additional confirmation of the trade, or take it "as it happens".

This is a style thing, but regarding Breakouts I prefer to always wait for a pullback and PA at the pullback. The pullback can happen on horizontal breakouts(ppzs), trendlines etc.

This gives me the confidence in the trade and a specific point for my stop.

Breakouts occur on different orderflow levels.

For example.

Say we have a breakout short, and price moves up quickly. This could be the triggering and cascade of stop loss orders that sit below a clear support level(plus other sell orders, take profit etc,) . Price then is rejected upwards after the burst down, and back into the former breakout area. Many would call this a "false" breakout.

Now in scenario two, price breaks short out of the support area triggering the orderflow below. Price is then rejected up again like in scenario one, but as price comes back towards the former breakout area that it broke from we once again Find NEW sellers(this is the flip of support to resistance). We see this in the form of PA, and this gives us confidence in the validity of this breakout as being sustainable rather then a "false".

This is simply the mechanics behind what a chart can tell us.

Nothing is a guarantee but this can help give us stricter areas to look for trades with definable stop and entry points.

Yes there are MANY many ways to play all kinds of price action. Here is just another way that I find works for me.

Here is an example
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a1.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: a2.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #13,103
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:37am Aug 25, 2008 8:37am
Quoting mbqb11
This is a style thing, but regarding Breakouts I prefer to always wait for a pullback and PA at the pullback. The pullback can happen on horizontal breakouts(ppzs), trendlines etc.

This gives me the confidence in the trade and a specific point for my stop.

Breakouts occur on different orderflow levels.

For example.

Say we have a breakout short, and price moves up quickly. This could be the triggering and cascade of stop loss orders that sit below a clear support level(plus other sell orders, take profit etc,) . Price then is rejected upwards after the burst down, and back into the former breakout area. Many would call this a "false" breakout.

Now in scenario two, price breaks short out of the support area triggering the orderflow below. Price is then rejected up again like in scenario one, but as price comes back towards the former breakout area that it broke from we once again Find NEW sellers(this is the flip of support to resistance). We see this in the form of PA, and this gives us confidence in the validity of this breakout as being sustainable rather then a "false".

This is simply the mechanics behind what a chart can tell us.

Nothing is a guarantee but this can help give us stricter areas to look for trades with definable stop and entry points.

Yes there are MANY many ways to play all kinds of price action. Here is just another way that I find works for me.

Here is an example
Very simple and nice approach. I like your style Mike. I trade breakouts as well Igrok's style, and certainly it is better to wait for the pullback and then enter a trade, but then again we are going to miss alot of trades waiting for pullback. Well its just a matter of style the trader is using.
  • #13,104
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:03am Aug 25, 2008 9:03am
Quoting mbqb11
This is a style thing, but regarding Breakouts I prefer to always wait for a pullback and PA at the pullback.
Mike, thanks A LOT for the explanation and charts, your point is very clear. I do agree that a verification via pullback does improve the chances of BO not being a false one (but as a downside indeed that mane valid BOs could be missed).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,105
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:11am Aug 25, 2008 9:11am
Quoting Forex007
Mike, thanks A LOT for the explanation and charts, your point is very clear. I do agree that a verification via pullback does improve the chances of BO not being a false one (but as a downside indeed that mane valid BOs could be missed).
Yep indeed this is true very true

Every style of trading has benefits and drawbacks, simply find a style that fits your personality.

People always want the best of both worlds in trading. Same goes with entries and stops.

Example I don't want to put my stop below the pin b/c I don't want a 150pt stop. Well that is fine, but then one must realize what the consequences and advantages are of that.

Example. I don't want to wait for the break of the pin bar to enter. Again this is fine but understand that a pinbar is not valid until it breaks.


Best piece of advice I can give, is to find ways of trading that you are comfortable with. Test the hell out of it, and make it your own. This will give you the confidence and discipline to trade it through the ups and downs



Mike
  • #13,106
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:15am Aug 25, 2008 9:15am
Quoting mbqb11
This is a style thing, but regarding Breakouts I prefer to always wait for a pullback and PA at the pullback. The pullback can happen on horizontal breakouts(ppzs), trendlines etc.
great post ...

so when price just goes zooming on down, you are standing aside and then just look for another set-up? or do you have somewhere else you might jump on board? last dumb question ... you are watching price from the hourly for the 4hr trade? or even lower TF?

i know that it takes time to make these posts and they are appreciated greatly. thanks.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #13,107
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:24am Aug 25, 2008 9:24am
Quoting fxgrinder
great post ...

so when price just goes zooming on down, you are standing aside and then just look for another set-up? or do you have somewhere else you might jump on board? last dumb question ... you are watching price from the hourly for the 4hr trade? or even lower TF?

i know that it takes time to make these posts and they are appreciated greatly. thanks.
I rarely enter on a PURE breakout. I have certain criteria where I will make exceptions.

Normally I am scanning my charts for breakouts with the trend. So for example on the gbp/usd I posted, I saw a breakout formation forming on the 4hr. I will then drop down in timeframes too look for price action on the pullback(after the initial burst). Sometimes you find PA on the pullback on a lower timeframe, sometimes on the same timeframe you are looking at.

Again that is the basics of it. Another example I was watching this weekly eur/gbp for a break long. Today we got a push outside my area and price quickly pulled back. But since I wait for a pullback I didn't get caught in the initial move. Now there is a way to not have to look for PA on this type of false. You can buy a break of the new high(which would be buying when price breaks above todays high. THen you can use todays low as your stop point(if price breaks that high tomm). That is my least favorite way, but this is what I call sometimes buying a failed pinbar. So if todays bar is a pinbar, I wouldn't short it, rather look to play a break of the high(a failed pinbar).

Now all that happens is I will keep this in my watchlist. I have a watch list I make and set alerts for areas to watch for priceaction after the break.

Generally though

If I am looking for a breakout + pullback on the weekly. I will use the daily and rarely the 4hr for a trigger point(pa)

If the BO formation is on the daily I will use the daily/4hr and rarely the 1hr

For the 4hr - 4hr/1hr/rarely 30min15min
For the hourly I will use the 1hr/30mins/15min with the rare 5 min.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a2.gif Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: a1.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #13,108
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:30am Aug 25, 2008 9:30am
Quoting mbqb11

Best piece of advice I can give, is to find ways of trading that you are comfortable with. Test the hell out of it, and make it your own. This will give you the confidence and discipline to trade it through the ups and downs
Thank you very much, Mike!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,109
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:38am Aug 25, 2008 9:38am
Quoting mbqb11
Now all that happens is I will keep this in my watchlist. I have a watch list I make and set alerts for areas to watch for priceaction after the break.
Mike, thank you for sharing your approach.

How do you technically implement your watchlist and alerts? e.g. I was thinking of dedicating one of the monitors to the charts I am watching.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,110
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:41am Aug 25, 2008 9:41am
Quoting Forex007
Mike, thank you for sharing your approach.

How do you technically implement your watchlist and alerts? e.g. I was thinking of dedicating one of the monitors to the charts I am watching.
I just have my pairs that are on my watch list minimized at all times. Have alert indicators for when price breaks out or hits a certain area so I know what to watch(for example if I am looking for a pullback, when price hits that area it will set of a sound alert in case I am sleeping). Nothing complicated, always keep things simple

Mike
  • #13,111
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:50am Aug 25, 2008 9:50am
Skipped the eur/cad. Got short on the cad/jpy @ 104.782, took 1/2 at 1:1, stop @ cost target for other 1/2 @ 103.60
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.jpg Size: 160 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.jpg Size: 151 KB
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,112
  • Aug 25, 2008 10:20am Aug 25, 2008 10:20am
Quoting mbqb11
I just have my pairs that are on my watch list minimized at all times. Have alert indicators for when price breaks out or hits a certain area so I know what to watch(for example if I am looking for a pullback, when price hits that area it will set of a sound alert in case I am sleeping). Nothing complicated, always keep things simple

Mike
Mike have you seen rockrat around?
  • #13,113
  • Aug 25, 2008 10:30am Aug 25, 2008 10:30am
Quoting eraserhead
Interesting. What about a nice "add to the position point" at the 50.0 retrace of the 161,5? Seems that the price is actually going there.
61,8 fibs retracement reached!
  • #13,114
  • Aug 25, 2008 11:12am Aug 25, 2008 11:12am
Quoting eraserhead
61,8 fibs retracement reached!
and i don't feel the need to add on any positions...feel free to do so if you like...
I believe . . .
  • #13,115
  • Aug 25, 2008 11:23am Aug 25, 2008 11:23am
Quoting mbqb11
I rarely enter on a PURE breakout. I have certain criteria where I will make exceptions.

Normally I am scanning my charts for breakouts with the trend. So for example on the gbp/usd I posted, I saw a breakout formation forming on the 4hr. I will then drop down in timeframes too look for price action on the pullback(after the initial burst). Sometimes you find PA on the pullback on a lower timeframe, sometimes on the same timeframe you are looking at.

Again that is the basics of it. Another example I was watching this weekly eur/gbp for a break long. Today we got a push outside my area and price quickly pulled back. But since I wait for a pullback I didn't get caught in the initial move. Now there is a way to not have to look for PA on this type of false. You can buy a break of the new high(which would be buying when price breaks above todays high. THen you can use todays low as your stop point(if price breaks that high tomm). That is my least favorite way, but this is what I call sometimes buying a failed pinbar. So if todays bar is a pinbar, I wouldn't short it, rather look to play a break of the high(a failed pinbar).

Now all that happens is I will keep this in my watchlist. I have a watch list I make and set alerts for areas to watch for priceaction after the break.

Generally though

If I am looking for a breakout + pullback on the weekly. I will use the daily and rarely the 4hr for a trigger point(pa)

If the BO formation is on the daily I will use the daily/4hr and rarely the 1hr

For the 4hr - 4hr/1hr/rarely 30min15min
For the hourly I will use the 1hr/30mins/15min with the rare 5 min.

Great charts Mike! and i like your approach though it's a bit different than mine, what you're looking to do is to wait for price to pull back to the breakout area first and then find a PA to confirm the breakout move...

the problem i see here is that when you see the price breakout of a range or TL sometimes it may never come back, besides when it does not always will there be a PA to confirm it's willingness to contiue the breakout move...

so based on this i get the idea that this is more of a conservative approach and suits the kind of trader you are, such a strategy can some from nowhere else but the treasury of Mike...

My breakout trading focuses more on correct anticpations and getting on the bus early so you get the seat, which obviously is more of an aggressive style of trading, when i have time sometime during the week i'll try to push in a post or two!

Thanks btw for assisting to Forex007, bet you were able to do the job better than any attemot i would have made...lol

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #13,116
  • Aug 25, 2008 1:52pm Aug 25, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting ghous
Thanks btw for assisting to Forex007, bet you were able to do the job better than any attemot i would have made...lol.
As Mike said, "different strokes for different folks" - there is no (clear) right or wrong (apart from some key basics), so your approach is as good (for you) as Mike's for him. I tend to be less conservative in my trading, so I am somewhere between you, Ghous, and Mike
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,117
  • Aug 25, 2008 4:20pm Aug 25, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting mbqb11
"Best piece of advice I can give, is to find ways of trading that you are comfortable with. Test the hell out of it, and make it your own. This will give you the confidence and discipline to trade it through the ups and downs



Mike"
I keep trying to sneak that one in too, but people don't seem to get it. LOL

I guess it'll take too long to get rich that way.

Quoting Forex007
As Mike said, "different strokes for different folks" - there is no (clear) right or wrong (apart from some key basics), so your approach is as good (for you) as Mike's for him. I tend to be less conservative in my trading, so I am somewhere between you, Ghous, and Mike
Amen to Pull-Backs resumed by Price Action.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #13,118
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:29pm Aug 25, 2008 8:29pm
100's of ways to make money, 1000's of way's to lose it. Also remember it all works and none of it works, depends who's looking at it. I trade from the 4hr down to the 1min just depends on how I feel that day. After 10 years of doing this nothing really has changed, from stocks to options to the S&P e-mini it's all just charts. Take the time to learn it and as everyone else said find something that works for you and the biggest thing of all is don't blow out a account trade small and keep it small. Also I hate to say this but a lot of people just will never be able to trade and will go "System" to system and never get it.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #13,119
  • Aug 25, 2008 11:34pm Aug 25, 2008 11:34pm
Here's the next trade I'm set for, might be a little risky but reward looks good. I am bearish Euro now except for this pair and maybe EUR/JPY. Last week there was BUOB on weekly which has retraced quite a bit. I'm looking to get in at 161.48 or so when it hits support on 4 hour chart. Stop is below the weekly swing low.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: echw.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ech4.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #13,120
  • Aug 26, 2008 2:06am Aug 26, 2008 2:06am
Quoting bundyraider
Eur/Jpy Take 2

I didn't take the last one. ( ...through pure a__e. )

This is a numbers game. ...You have to be in it to win it, as they say. (edit: That's the GOOD ones. Not just every PA setup. )
The first one failed, but when a chart tells you again that it wants to change direction , you listen to it. ...You don't run away just because the Bear bullies beat you up the first time. (...hey , I'm getting pretty good with this poetic shasizzle. )

Really, most daily Pins taken in the right spot will work out.
We only need 'most' , coupled with good money management, to win in this business.

The way I'm trading it...

  1. Buy stop 10 pips above the high of the pin. (4-pip spread plus 6 pips buffer). ...I'm not doing anything less than a break trade on this one. The close is a little low-ish and the price bars preceding this pin have created there own little resistance area that I'd rather see broken. Another important obstacle is the daily 365 EMA. A break of the pin would have this baby out of the way too.

  1. First Take-Profit,for me ,will be the 'green' 38.2 fib retracement of the past 6 months price range. 163.01 ...I'll set my alert to a few pips below.

  1. Expected target is the 'yellow/gold' 38.2% fib retracement, which co-insides with the blue resistance lines shown. I'll be watching how price reacts with this. This would have been my first take profit if it weren't for the reaction history to the above mentioned green level.

Other things I'll be watching out for...

I'm watching the 200 EMA as well (red on this chart). If things move a little too slow this may end up being below my first take profit point. I may even revise the first target because of this ema. If it comes down to greet the first 'green' 38.2% in confluence , that may be the end of the trade full stop. If I've taken profit by then, I'll set the remaining position to break even stop-loss and just manage it day by day from then on.

Edit: This could, through correlation effects , help the EurUsd trade.
.

Hello, are you still long on this with a portion of the trade? It seems to me that the pin bar is going to give up.
55 traders viewing now