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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #13,081
  • Aug 24, 2008 9:02pm Aug 24, 2008 9:02pm
I will read and learn. Thanks!
  • #13,082
  • Aug 24, 2008 9:04pm Aug 24, 2008 9:04pm
Quoting mbqb11
PPZ stands for price pivot zone

It is the flip b/w support and resistance.

Start with this post and scroll down

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ne#post1840240

Enjoy it is powerful tool


Mike

Even better, start with this post and scroll down and down and down.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,083
  • Aug 24, 2008 9:24pm Aug 24, 2008 9:24pm
Jaroo, are you still in on that EJ PB? I've been stopped out as I moved my SL to above B/E - I thought that it would go up again I can always join later (via DIBS. for example )
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,084
  • Aug 24, 2008 9:30pm Aug 24, 2008 9:30pm
Quoting jarroo
Nice job 007.

I took 1/2 off and move to b/e. Absolutely, could be a keeper. Weekly PB will be fun to watch next week.
Yes, stopped out at b/e on the 2nd half. Nice trade.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,085
  • Aug 24, 2008 10:16pm Aug 24, 2008 10:16pm
Quoting mbqb11
I think I understand your question. I simply place a pending order once I see PA that I like. If the order isn't triggered within the next bar then I manually cancel it.
this is what i was thinking about ... i've also read where it's not invalidated until it busts out the other end. i wonder if there is a definitive answer on this. i've been setting 24 hour time stops on my orders so far ... or maybe they could be played both ways. let me know what you think. thanks always for all your help and great posts.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #13,086
  • Aug 25, 2008 12:48am Aug 25, 2008 12:48am
Quoting fxgrinder
this is what i was thinking about ... i've also read where it's not invalidated until it busts out the other end. i wonder if there is a definitive answer on this. i've been setting 24 hour time stops on my orders so far ... or maybe they could be played both ways. let me know what you think. thanks always for all your help and great posts.
Coming from Mike it says alot. It is obvious that if a PA set-up, no matter the time frame, is not trigger in the next bar then the probability of that trade is reduced. Not eliminated, but reduced. I've been looking at past set-ups and that seems to be the case. And Mike just helped confim it.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,087
  • Aug 25, 2008 1:47am Aug 25, 2008 1:47am
Quoting jarroo
Yeah, sell stop at 8485

I was watching the same chart too. I was hoping to get in at 38 or 50 retracement, but no chance.
Can I ask you why you sell stop at 8485? Do you treat this particular signal as you would a PB break out? (ie. several pips above the PB's high and put a buy stop)

Also please take a look at the attached chart. It's a possible PB forming in 4 hr in usd/jpy. Whether or not the price at the close of hour confirm it's a PB or not (for argument sake let's say it's a PB). What I'm trying to say, the horizontal line that I drew, would you consider that as a valid PPZ on the 4hr chart?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,088
  • Aug 25, 2008 2:12am Aug 25, 2008 2:12am
Quoting y.caesar
I was watching the same chart too. I was hoping to get in at 38 or 50 retracement, but no chance.
Can I ask you why you sell stop at 8485? Do you treat this particular signal as you would a PB break out? (ie. several pips above the PB's high and put a buy stop)
I always like when Price heads toward a major PPZ. 1.8500 on the Gbp/Usd is a huge PPZ check the monthly chart. I saw this Inside Bar on the 4 hour chart sitting on that level and decided to play it either way with a 10-15 pip on both sides as a "buffer". I took 59 pips on half and put the other half stop loss at 1.8515.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,089
  • Aug 25, 2008 2:12am Aug 25, 2008 2:12am
Quoting jarroo
Coming from Mike it says alot. It is obvious that if a PA set-up, no matter the time frame, is not trigger in the next bar then the probability of that trade is reduced. Not eliminated, but reduced. I've been looking at past set-ups and that seems to be the case. And Mike just helped confim it.
Both Tom DeMark and Martin Pring said that after a valid "signal" (PA or a TL breakout), the price could continue moving in the "wrong" direction for 3-5 bars (and they are talking about daily charts...)
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,090
  • Edited 2:46am Aug 25, 2008 2:18am | Edited 2:46am
Quoting jarroo
I always like when Price heads toward a major PPZ. 1.8500 on the Gbp/Usd is a huge PPZ check the monthly chart. I saw this Inside Bar on the 4 hour chart sitting on that level and decided to play it either way with a 10-15 pip on both sides as a "buffer". I took 59 pips on half and put the other half stop loss at 1.8515.
Jaroo, it never stops amazing me how good your analysis (usually ) is - I passed on that IB as it was close to (but not within) the previous range that lasted for a few days.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,091
  • Aug 25, 2008 2:22am Aug 25, 2008 2:22am
Quoting Forex007
Both Tom DeMark and Martin Pring said that after a valid "signal" (PA or a TL breakout), the price could continue moving in the "wrong" direction for 3-5 bars (and they are talking about daily charts...)
Well like I said, it doesn't eliminated the potential trade it just reduces the probability of success.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,092
  • Aug 25, 2008 2:35am Aug 25, 2008 2:35am
Quoting y.caesar
Also please take a look at the attached chart. It's a possible PB forming in 4 hr in usd/jpy. Whether or not the price at the close of hour confirm it's a PB or not (for argument sake let's say it's a PB). What I'm trying to say, the horizontal line that I drew, would you consider that as a valid PPZ on the 4hr chart?
Before we go to the 4 hour chart let's see what the Weekly and Daily look like.
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,093
  • Aug 25, 2008 3:08am Aug 25, 2008 3:08am
Hi guys,

Do you consider TL breakout as a PA? If so, do you still look for additional confirmation of the trade, or take it "as it happens".

As a side note:

I did some backtesting with H1 and H4. The latter is more reliable and gives good results (I used DeMark rules with some "bits" from Mouteki - who took it from DeMark to start with ).

As for the former (H1), it works better as the basis for M15 countertrading - but that's off the topic I guess.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #13,094
  • Aug 25, 2008 3:22am Aug 25, 2008 3:22am
Quoting jarroo
Before we go to the 4 hour chart let's see what the Weekly and Daily look like.
All I can say is thank you for showing me your systematical approach for reminding me to check out the longer TF. I know that at the end of the day, the longer TF rules over the smaller TF. I used to think that whenever I look at a chart, let's say at this instance a 4hr chart, the S/R that matter are already shown on that TF. So looking back at your posted longer TF charts, I realize that the higher probabilities of a trade to be successful would be if the smaller TF signals form in the longer TF PPZ.

And I have to say the way you took that gbp/usd breakdown trade was just beautiful
  • #13,095
  • Aug 25, 2008 3:30am Aug 25, 2008 3:30am
Quoting y.caesar
All I can say is thank you for showing me your systematical approach for reminding me to check out the longer TF. I know that at the end of the day, the longer TF rules over the smaller TF. I used to think that whenever I look at a chart, let's say at this instance a 4hr chart, the S/R that matter are already shown on that TF. So looking back at your posted longer TF charts, I realize that the higher probabilities of a trade to be successful would be if the smaller TF signals form in the longer TF PPZ.

And I have to say the way you took that gbp/usd breakdown trade was just beautiful
Just takes practise. Looking for PA set-ups off higher time frame PPZs is the way to go. Because Higher Time Frames RULE!
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #13,096
  • Aug 25, 2008 4:05am Aug 25, 2008 4:05am
Quoting jarroo
Just takes practise. Looking for PA set-ups off higher time frame PPZs is the way to go. Because Higher Time Frames RULE!
Ditto
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,097
  • Aug 25, 2008 5:35am Aug 25, 2008 5:35am
for those long on E/J . I see big resistance on 38,2 fibs retracement of the last drop from the 163 high. Any ideas about that? Is it possible more drop to the 50 or 61.8?
  • #13,098
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:01am Aug 25, 2008 8:01am
Quoting Forex007
Hi guys,

Do you consider TL breakout as a PA? If so, do you still look for additional confirmation of the trade, or take it "as it happens".

As a side note:

I did some backtesting with H1 and H4. The latter is more reliable and gives good results (I used DeMark rules with some "bits" from Mouteki - who took it from DeMark to start with ).

As for the former (H1), it works better as the basis for M15 countertrading - but that's off the topic I guess.
Hi Forex007, the most important point abt trading trendline breakouts is the fact that there is no hard and fast rule abt breakouts, although ppl like Demark and others have tried to extract some rules out of these uncertain markets, the raw truth still is that you never actually know when a trendline breaks, sometimes pin bars off these trendlines will fail as the price still makes through, othet times good momentum bars (with little to no tails and a good sized body) will close much below the trendline only to watch the next bar go staright up, and there are numerous times when good PA setups work extremely well, or tails do tell you the way,

i tackle this problem once again with stong emphasise on momentum, again i don't like to restirct myself within specific rules because i believe it is not followed for whom they are actually made. when i see price caught up in a range or are near a trendline, not only will i look for PA setups but also look for momentum generally indicated by candle shapes, sizes and types.

secondly i don't belive in stuff like "don't take a trade unless you see the bar close below" because the fact is a person watching the same trendline drawn on the same pair and tf may still have price many pips away from the TL while on my charts price is sitting on it, i thus will take the trade when and if i get the trigger, and move the trendline a fw pips here and there to fix the gap that may have been created due to disripency in drawing the TL

so to sum it up my trigger is PA yes, but i look for other indications like divergence with my macd and or strong momentum, (which will more often then not pick up for the breakout much before the actual breakout), thirdly make sure you don't ignore tails! they do tell you the way, and you'll realize this when you start looking at the markets as activities of the two main parties, the bulls and the bears. tails around important ppz's, extereme end of ranges and trendlines can really make you big money!

i would love to post a few charts for you but due to time constaints i am unable to do that (will need to edit them and add in some text), if i do get the time during the week (hope so..) i'll throw in a few... stay tuned...

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #13,099
  • Aug 25, 2008 8:05am Aug 25, 2008 8:05am
Quoting eraserhead
for those long on E/J . I see big resistance on 38,2 fibs retracement of the last drop from the 163 high. Any ideas about that? Is it possible more drop to the 50 or 61.8?
i still loook upon it as res from the 161.5 region ppz, but the weekly pin seems far from giving up! it seems it's busy forming the right eye to build into a handosme pin bar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 11 KB
I believe . . .
  • #13,100
  • Edited 10:29am Aug 25, 2008 8:14am | Edited 10:29am
Quoting ghous
i still loook upon it as res from the 161.5 region ppz, but the weekly pin seems far from giving up! it seems it's busy forming the right eye to build into a handosme pin bar
Interesting. What about a nice "add to the position point" at the 50.0 retrace of the 161,5? Seems that the price is actually going there.
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