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  • #23,501
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:03am Aug 25, 2008 9:03am
ok, so it should go down right? Hmmm.....but I wonder if it will spike up before heading down hard?
  • #23,502
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:04am Aug 25, 2008 9:04am
Quoting altrader
ok, so it should go down right? Hmmm.....but I wonder if it will spike up before heading down hard?

well depends on who wins.. nwo the news is out.. the rest of the shorters come.. so if u see the price action.. it will go up down up down ..as it is longers VS shorters.. when one becomes weak.. the breakout begins
  • #23,503
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:07am Aug 25, 2008 9:07am
United States14:00Million Existing Home Sales (JUL)4.91 4.86 5.00 Blue


5United States14:00% Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUL)1.0 -2.6 3.1
  • #23,504
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:07am Aug 25, 2008 9:07am
Quoting trading801
well depends on who wins.. nwo the news is out.. the rest of the shorters come.. so if u see the price action.. it will go up down up down ..as it is longers VS shorters.. when one becomes weak.. the breakout begins
If you have been watching price actions for some time, you will have noticed that prices are not always going where "logically" they should go based on news or what not. Frequently it's because a particular piece of news has already been priced in, and when the news comes out, it doesn't seem to induce the expected effect. This is called "buy the rumor, sell the news".
Expected the unexpected
  • #23,505
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:08am Aug 25, 2008 9:08am
Quoting SunTrader
No, not perspectives. The actually trend. Since 7/15/08 down 1400 pips, since 8/19/08 up 165 pips. If that makes an uptrend to you then OK. To me the numbers, not my perspective say down until and if it moves back up more than a measly 12%.
SunTrader - We've beat this horse to death.

If you think it's up - KEEP BUYING.

The larger the better.
  • #23,506
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:09am Aug 25, 2008 9:09am
Quoting scyang
If you have been watching price actions for some time, you will have noticed that prices are not always going where "logically" they should go based on news or what not. Frequently it's because a particular piece of news has already been priced in, and when the news comes out, it doesn't seem to induce the expected effect. This is called "buy the rumor, sell the news".
true.. perhaps it priced a bad news thats why the up to 1.48

but it is better than expected the news...
  • #23,507
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:09am Aug 25, 2008 9:09am
Overall the New is BAD !

Why ? It only went up a little bit keeping in mind that 25% of all Existing Home Sales were Due to Foreclosures ! Not Good !

The MOST IMPORTANF FACT is INVENTORY went to a ALL TIME HIGH ...

No Bottom Yet !


Bruce
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  • #23,508
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:09am Aug 25, 2008 9:09am
The trend is down. The higher it goes, the better your short position will be.
  • #23,509
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:10am Aug 25, 2008 9:10am
To apply the principle of trading in conjunction with market sentiment you should look at a stock’s price action with the intent of answering two questions. Is the stock trading in a way that demonstrates that its sentiment is bullish, bearish or undecided? And, is there any reason for it to be trading this way (i.e. news)? With answers to these two questions you can begin to gauge the sentiment of the stock. The simple explanation can be found in some common sayings with which you are familiar. For example, "buy the rumor sell the news". Let’s look at an example of this phrase. Often a stock experiences a bullish run, but then a piece of good news is announced and the stock sells off hard, erasing the gains. In this scenario, if you had bought the stock when the news came out you would have lost money. Why does this happen? Simple. The market participants were expecting or knew that there was a chance that good news would come out in the near future. As a result they had good reason to be bullish on the stock’s price and this sentiment drove the price of the stock higher. When news is released traders and investors must decide if the news was as good as expected and then further assess whether there is more potentially good news on the horizon. If they can’t expect further good news then they will become less bullish and take profits. If the news was not as good as they had hoped their sentiment may turn bearish. Any shift in sentiment that would lead traders to become less bullish will create the desire to sell and that will tend to push the price of the stock lower.
Interesting scenario

Tom(uk)
  • #23,510
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:10am Aug 25, 2008 9:10am
Watch the lower trendline, if it breaks we should fall for a while at least, if not all the way...
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #23,511
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:12am Aug 25, 2008 9:12am
Quoting mxb
chill dude we on the same page (lets not argue over choice of words)...im very aware of the trends 7/15....8/19...

good luck shorting today
It is very simple if we agree the trend for the last month is down and and that it needs to move a lot higher in order to call the trend up? BTW I live in Florida I never chill.

Now if someone is trading off the 5 min chart the trend can be called up because all they need to look at is the last x nbrs of hours. Not week/months years. Like I said, it all depends on timeframe.
  • #23,512
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:13am Aug 25, 2008 9:13am
Quoting booktimes
To apply the principle of trading in conjunction with market sentiment you should look at a stock’s price action with the intent of answering two questions. Is the stock trading in a way that demonstrates that its sentiment is bullish, bearish or undecided? And, is there any reason for it to be trading this way (i.e. news)? With answers to these two questions you can begin to gauge the sentiment of the stock. The simple explanation can be found in some common sayings with which you are familiar. For example, "buy the rumor sell the news". Let’s look at an example of this phrase. Often a stock experiences a bullish run, but then a piece of good news is announced and the stock sells off hard, erasing the gains. In this scenario, if you had bought the stock when the news came out you would have lost money. Why does this happen? Simple. The market participants were expecting or knew that there was a chance that good news would come out in the near future. As a result they had good reason to be bullish on the stock’s price and this sentiment drove the price of the stock higher. When news is released traders and investors must decide if the news was as good as expected and then further assess whether there is more potentially good news on the horizon. If they can’t expect further good news then they will become less bullish and take profits. If the news was not as good as they had hoped their sentiment may turn bearish. Any shift in sentiment that would lead traders to become less bullish will create the desire to sell and that will tend to push the price of the stock lower.
Interesting scenario

Tom(uk)

bro so for this example, the market expects bad news.. hence usd weaken still 1.4800 but now it is better hence apparently the traders are suprised and happy and hence turns bull on USD.. am i right?
  • #23,513
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:14am Aug 25, 2008 9:14am
Quoting trading801
this comes from a desperate guy of -160 pips.. LOL

i hope this is enough to kick start a short
i thinh you are just a gambler like i was until 08 08 08.you prayed to the God of pips some few days ago when you were 200 pips down and now you need him again to bring the market to your favor.guy please try using sp.they really come in hand.i learnt my lesson the hard way and i wont want you doing that too.just a friendly advice
  • #23,514
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:14am Aug 25, 2008 9:14am
i think buying or selling at this point is HIGH risk...i will wait... i think i do smell shorting at the horizon
  • #23,515
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:15am Aug 25, 2008 9:15am
Quoting Warren Forex
Overall the New is BAD !

Why ? It only went up a little bit keeping in mind that 25% of all Existing Home Sales were Due to Foreclosures ! Not Good !

The MOST IMPORTANF FACT is INVENTORY went to a ALL TIME HIGH ...

No Bottom Yet !


Bruce

Agreed....digging into the report here while the dust settles so-to-speak.
  • #23,516
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:15am Aug 25, 2008 9:15am
Short from 1.4783. I hope I didn't just make a terrible mistake. Since this whole greenback rally has started I've been having a hard time deciding which of my indicators I can still trust.
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #23,517
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:16am Aug 25, 2008 9:16am
Market Comments
With UK markets closed due to a bank holiday, and with the US July Existing Home Sales the only key market data to be released, the currency markets are taking virtually a day off with the ranges in the major pairs holding firmly with EURUSD sluggishly swinging within the 1.4695-1.48 band, with the USD seemingly unable to add to last Friday's 1.5 figure advance against the euro. Advances in the Asian equities have also failed to excite the European session, with major equity indexes broadly unchanged.
While last week's poor 2Q GDP release from UK along with the disappointing July Retail Sales have kept sterling on the offer through the of Friday, with cable finally pushing through major stops at the break of 1.85, the subsequent technical hammer formation for the day with rejection of further selling just above 1.84 indicate that the markets aren't quite ready to write sterling off altogether quite yet.
A very similar picture prevails prevail in EURGBP, where a daily close above 0.80 now looks to be a key for further upside gains to be sustained.


Case Schiller Tomorrow ... FACTS Not Opinion Here ...

Given this immense debacle, people are feeling the negative pangs of wealth destruction. At the height, $24 trillion in residential real estate wealth was out there. Now, we are seeing estimates at $19 or $20 trillion giving us a destruction of $4 or $5 trillion. To be exact, we can multiply the Case-Shiller decline to the overall peak price:
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/w...se-shiller.jpg
$24 trillion x 18.39% = $4.4 trillion in equity gone
At the peak in July of 2006 the Case-Shiller Index stood at 206.52. Currently it stands at 168.54, a decline of 18.39% from its peak nationwide. So with that, we can multiply the decline to the peak estimate residential wealth and you can see that $4.4 trillion in housing equity is gone. The trend is also heading lower so each subsequent decline is further equity destruction. Keep in mind that the debt remains the same. That is the problem with falling prices. The underlying debt reflects bubble prices and doesn’t adjust but the market value of the asset is falling and falling.
These are 10 reasons why there will be no second half recovery. There are other reasons but these are sufficient to keep us from seeing any major changes for a very long time. Anyone telling you otherwise is probably just trying to sell a book or a seminar.
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  • #23,518
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:18am Aug 25, 2008 9:18am
Quoting acumen
SunTrader - We've beat this horse to death.

If you think it's up - KEEP BUYING.

The larger the better.
I wonder sometimes what posts you are reading. I have never posted (at least I don't think I have) on FF a long or short call. I give my bias on which direction I think the sentiment is strongest.

And I still think it is to the downside. I have felt that for a while. Right now I don't see anything changing for at least another 3-4 trading days and maybe not even then.
  • #23,519
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:18am Aug 25, 2008 9:18am
Quoting oolides
i thinh you are just a gambler like i was until 08 08 08.you prayed to the God of pips some few days ago when you were 200 pips down and now you need him again to bring the market to your favor.guy please try using sp.they really come in hand.i learnt my lesson the hard way and i wont want you doing that too.just a friendly advice

thanks bro.. i am glad you noticed and cared.. well .. i am actually not gambler in the sense.. how should i put it .. ok basically i look at 2 points..

1) fundamentals
2) medium - short term trends..

so 1) to me now US is getting better vs euro so short
2) for past weeks.. short

hence my positions are usually short with HIGH SL like 200 pips to ride out waves.. >> this is because i am still not very adept at identifying entry points.. like that day (-200pips) and today -170pips..

but any bros here will want to correct me with experience? i am always humble and sincere to learn...
  • #23,520
  • Aug 25, 2008 9:22am Aug 25, 2008 9:22am
It doesn't matter whether the news is good, bad or indifferent.

It matters how markets react to it.
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