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  • #23,241
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:03pm Aug 24, 2008 8:03pm
Quoting SunTrader
You realize that the NYMEX crude trade pits open at 9:00am EST ?
8:30 est, <edit> My bad that's gold, I worked in the Gold pits. Carry on.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #23,242
  • Edited 8:06pm Aug 24, 2008 8:03pm | Edited 8:06pm
August 24, 2008

Richard Suttmeier?s Fearless Market Prediction

August 25, 2008, Richard Suttmeier’s Fearless Market Prediction



A Few of Last Week’s Headlines

  1. Bernanke says that the economy too weak and credit conditions too tight to hike rates. Warren Buffet says there’s a reasonable chance for Fannie and Freddie to be totally wiped out. Job layoffs in the US are at a five year high January through July. Hey Hank, where are the 500,000 jobs you promised from the $165 billion Stimulus Plan.
  2. The Dow climbs a Wall of Worry by nearly 200 points on Friday, but closes down 32 points for the week. We are consolidating a Bear Market, that will return, when the Dow has a monthly close below its 120-month simple moving average now at 10,600.

This week’s economic data should continue the weakening trend


· Monday – Existing Home Sales should be at a low 4.8 million annual rate in July. Keep in mind that 15% to 25% of existing home sales are forced by foreclosure or auction.


· Tuesday – Consumer Confidence will continue well below the Recession Warning level of 70, and could be on the cusp of 50. New Home Sales should be a paltry 525,000 annual rate. The FOMC releases its minutes from the August 5 FOMC meeting. “Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and elevated energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.”


· Wednesday – Durable Goods Orders have been holding up and should rise by 0.3% in July. The Treasury auctions $31 billion in new 2-Year notes.


· Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims are now exceed 400,000 per week. Real GDP should show a preliminary reading of +1.9%. The Treasury auctions $21 billion in new 2-Year notes.


· Friday – Personal Income should decline 0.3% in July with spending up 0.3%. Chicago PMI should be around 50. Michigan Consumer Sentiment should end August at a weak 58.

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  • #23,243
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:05pm Aug 24, 2008 8:05pm
OK DT,

But for others who might be unsure -

Directly from NYMEX web site:

Trading Hours (All times are New York time)
http://www.nymex.com/images/spacer.gifOpen outcry trading is conducted from 9:00 AM until 2:30 PM.
  • #23,244
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:10pm Aug 24, 2008 8:10pm
Quoting SunTrader
OK DT,

But for others who might be unsure -

Directly from NYMEX web site:

Trading Hours (All times are New York time)
http://www.nymex.com/images/spacer.gifOpen outcry trading is conducted from 9:00 AM until 2:30 PM.
Yeah I didn't mean to call you out, thats what I get for skimming. Bad habit developed as a poli sci major LMAO
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #23,245
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:11pm Aug 24, 2008 8:11pm
thanks all for your kind advise
  • #23,246
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:14pm Aug 24, 2008 8:14pm
Quoting acumen
This is the EURUSD thread.

If you trade this pair then you shouldn't be trading the Asian session.

What's bullish volume?

There is no volume until the European session starts.
1st of all I do not need you , to tell me what to trade and what not to trade and when to trade it

2ndly all you seem to do is argue with everyone in here and contradict what they say

3rdly I have never actually seen you post anything in here with decent informative content in the post.

if you understand how market makers work and drive price you will understand that Sundays is one of the best times to catch a ride in a sudden move as a major player moves the market on low volume time , it could be opportunity to trap bulls in a down ward trend or a bear trap where they drive price down and then reverse it quickly.

FYI wise guy ... my trade guider software shows the volume today has been higher than Friday's US session . It is not real volume as you would see in stocks , but tick volume.

I guess the 80 pip move this session was a figment of my imagination.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #23,247
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:15pm Aug 24, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting SunTrader
You realize that the NYMEX crude trade pits open at 9:00am EST ?
I know that , but all markets seem interlinked and oil sometimes really gets rocking once the us market opens. It is just my technique. I will try the 9am est and see how that works.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #23,248
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:16pm Aug 24, 2008 8:16pm
IMO good r/r trade

long between 14710-14795 TP1 14820-30 TP2 14940-50
short below 14680 TP1 ~14540 TP2 open.

Any opinions are welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurod.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #23,249
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:19pm Aug 24, 2008 8:19pm
Quoting acumen
This is the EURUSD thread.

If you trade this pair then you shouldn't be trading the Asian session.

What's bullish volume?

There is no volume until the European session starts.
Remember Friday 08/08/08 ? I won't repeat the same mistake twice by going long as it starts retracing supposedly. Remember last week open ? The spike down to near 46 was closed right away. This gap is not in any hurry to be filled, s1 broken and big hourly channel broken, cable broke 85 and it's s2. Nobody stopped this move and nobody is trying to reverse it as it seems. We're in bear market territory, going down another 200 pips on euro and 300+ on cable. Which session after we stayed down here like this doesn't matter. Good luck
Quoting malcolmb14
1st of all I do not need you , to tell me what to trade and what not to trade and when to trade it

2ndly all you seem to do is argue with everyone in here and contradict what they say

3rdly I have never actually seen you post anything in here with decent informative content in the post.
I think you might not be getting anough sleep.. There is no reason whatsoever to attack acumen and he's defenitely one of the best and more experienced posters on this thread.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #23,250
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:26pm Aug 24, 2008 8:26pm
Quoting Jurrasic
Remember Friday 08/08/08 ? I won't repeat the same mistake twice by going long as it starts retracing supposedly. Remember last week open ? The spike down to near 46 was closed right away. This gap is not in any hurry to be filled, s1 broken and big hourly channel broken, cable broke 85 and it's s2. Nobody stopped this move and nobody is trying to reverse it as it seems. We're in bear market territory, going down another 200 pips on euro and 300+ on cable. Which session after we stayed down here like this doesn't matter. Good luck

I think you might not be getting anough sleep.. There is no reason whatsoever to attack acumen and he's defenitely one of the best and more experienced posters on this thread.
He may be ... and there is some truth in what he is saying about trading euro and us sessions.

However I do not like being told what I should and should not do . I also have many years of trading under my belt.

If there is volume coming into the market and you are a breakout trader then a trade is a trade

I typically sit in on the asian and us/euro overlap
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #23,251
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:31pm Aug 24, 2008 8:31pm
slowly but surely, it is creeping up.. thanks to the bros that advised me to SL.

Seems like a good setup for short... what time will vol flush in usually? a bro say after JAP's lunch? lol

i was thinking of short once it reaches 14750... please guide me if i am noobiely wrong again.
  • #23,252
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:33pm Aug 24, 2008 8:33pm
Quoting malcolmb14
This is a bear flag on 10 min charts .. there is NO buying pressure yet

Place stops at where you think your risk management is ok and then let her run

The trend is down...1.4760 was the line in sand for me ... now we have broken the 61.8% fib I think we carry on going down.
This is what you said last week?

This is aimed at new traders .... thanks to Algir for posting these levels

Oil has moved $7 since yesterday ... the USD is getting crushed because of this . THE SAFE TRADE is to wait for the pull backs on eurusd / gbpusd and then take the longs. The move in oil is not done till 124

Changed your mind?

Is it safe yet... to buy I mean?

Oil at 124?

Can I buy now?
  • #23,253
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:37pm Aug 24, 2008 8:37pm
Quoting trading801
slowly but surely, it is creeping up.. thanks to the bros that advised me to SL.

Seems like a good setup for short... what time will vol flush in usually? a bro say after JAP's lunch? lol

i was thinking of short once it reaches 14750... please guide me if i am noobiely wrong again.
You should wait for london session friend & I do not think any wrong if already in short . closely watch without sl now ift will green today if you can tolerate any few pips if go UP .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #23,254
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:39pm Aug 24, 2008 8:39pm
Quoting fontu
You should wait for london session friend & I do not think any wrong if already in short . closely watch without sl now ift will green today if you can tolerate any few pips if go UP .
fontu
green today means? sorry lol
  • #23,255
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:40pm Aug 24, 2008 8:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I know that , but all markets seem interlinked and oil sometimes really gets rocking once the us market opens. It is just my technique. I will try the 9am est and see how that works.
I think it might just be some crude traders waiting out the first 1/2 hour of the pit session. Not much happens during the same 9:00-9:30am est period with the index futures most days. So I'd say stick with what you are doing if it works.

  • #23,256
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:42pm Aug 24, 2008 8:42pm
Quoting trading801
green today means? sorry lol
I mean a positive trade that reach the take profit .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #23,257
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:45pm Aug 24, 2008 8:45pm
Quoting acumen
This is what you said last week?

This is aimed at new traders .... thanks to Algir for posting these levels

Oil has moved $7 since yesterday ... the USD is getting crushed because of this . THE SAFE TRADE is to wait for the pull backs on eurusd / gbpusd and then take the longs. The move in oil is not done till 124

Changed your mind?

Is it safe yet... to buy I mean?

Oil at 124?

Can I buy now?
Ok so you like to argue ....

we are traders not investors ..... markets are dynamic.

If you look at oil chart this might be an ok place to buy ... we are still in the formation of a rounded bottom on the daily till 113.50 ius broken

lets just wait for tomorrow and let the market tell us
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #23,258
  • Edited 8:55pm Aug 24, 2008 8:45pm | Edited 8:55pm
Quoting malcolmb14
1st of all I do not need you , to tell me what to trade and what not to trade and when to trade it

2ndly all you seem to do is argue with everyone in here and contradict what they say

3rdly I have never actually seen you post anything in here with decent informative content in the post.

if you understand how market makers work and drive price you will understand that Sundays is one of the best times to catch a ride in a sudden move as a major player moves the market on low volume time , it could be opportunity to trap bulls in a down ward trend or a bear trap where they drive price down and then reverse it quickly.

FYI wise guy ... my trade guider software shows the volume today has been higher than Friday's US session . It is not real volume as you would see in stocks , but tick volume.

I guess the 80 pip move this session was a figment of my imagination.
I'm certainly not telling you what to do... but I don't want new traders to read your post and believe the Asian session is a good time to trade. It isn't.

Market makers? Dude - this is the currency market. You mean like the bank traders? The London or New York desks? Those guys are 'market makers.'

I'm not a wise guy... I'm Irish.

I don't care what you do but don't post trash novice traders might read and take as fact.
  • #23,259
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:47pm Aug 24, 2008 8:47pm
Quoting acumen
Oil has moved $7 since yesterday ... the USD is getting crushed because of this . THE SAFE TRADE is to wait for the pull backs on eurusd / gbpusd and then take the longs. The move in oil is not done till 124
And the oil daily shows a downwards trend continuation, so what's your point ? It can go to 100 just as and probably more easily according to it's current chart. Don't know what's so magnetic about 124, 104 seems more achievable from here...
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #23,260
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:49pm Aug 24, 2008 8:49pm
Ahem, meanwhile EU is giving back what little it gained so far.
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