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  • #23,061
  • Aug 22, 2008 7:48pm Aug 22, 2008 7:48pm
Quoting seesaw
Pls give me name, address and phone # of your mentor.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #23,062
  • Aug 22, 2008 7:54pm Aug 22, 2008 7:54pm
Quoting PipAV8tor
I don't have my charts open, but I would point out two things. First, it is late on Friday and what happens at the close of the market on this day may be somewhat "false" or skewed. 2nd, it may carry over to the open on Sunday and it may not. I personally watch the open on Sunday night very little. I almost always watch on Monday, but very rarely trade. I wait for the Tues Asian and London sessions because by then, the market typically has a direction. Enjoy your weekend.
I've enjoyed reading your posts today. Good advice.
Ed
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #23,063
  • Aug 22, 2008 8:10pm Aug 22, 2008 8:10pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
I like these words....

"Trade demo as if u r trading LIVE and treat your live trades as you are doing demo"

Have a nice weekend guys...
sonic
From my personal experience, it's impossible to do. The reason is simple - people put so much emphasis on money. When it's real money involved, people feel very differently and that changes your whole outlook and behavior. You can pretend all you want, that the demo account is the real account, but it's just not the same.
Expected the unexpected
  • #23,064
  • Aug 22, 2008 9:43pm Aug 22, 2008 9:43pm
[quote=SpecialEd;2180469]
Quoting Warren Forex
Strategy: [email protected] Stunning recovery today as yesterday"s plunge from 109.90 is more than retraced already. Hourlies are overbought, while dailies are basing out midrange, having corrected recent overbought readings with this week"s pullback. 110.30 and 110.65, the latter the trend high, are the next two hurdles. Prefer buying into an hourly pullback. (RD) 18:49 GMT

Warren, I am pretty new on this site, so maybe I should not say anything, but I think I can look at all these irrelevant, distracting posts objectively. I hope you take my comments as I intend them, sincerely and with respect.

You seem to be an intelligent man, and a whole lot more experienced than I. Therefore, I read just about everything you post. Most of the fundamental news stuff you post, I appreciate. You do get carried away with cut/paste, but I give you credit for finding it, and I'm sure you think you're offering this thread something they might otherwise have missed. I can tolerate or overlook that.

I do wish you would quit trying to prove yourself by asserting your experience and qualifications. Frankly, Warren, it takes too damned much space, and I don't want to read it all the time. From what I've read, you should have enough self-confidence that you should not give a flip what anyone on this or any other thread thinks of you. You're probably never going to meet us, and frankly (again), we're not friends. We're not drinking beers together and sharing details of our respective pasts. We're professionals (or wannabees) trying to learn something that will give us a financial edge against THE MARKET, not other individuals (i.e., ppl).

I am interested in all that you want to say or report about the EUR/USD market. Thanks for the research and advice, and thanks for sharing.

I am not interested in USD/JPY. There's got to be another thread for that, surely. Please stick to the title of this one - EUR/USD.

I am not interested in continuing to rehash your running feud with anyone else. I'm never gonna be a Warren customer so frankly, I take what your detractors say - and what you say in your defense - with a grain of salt. Please be "bigger" than these verbal assailants and ignore them. I'm pretty sure that if you do, they will shut up.

Please sir, focus on what you do best. Keep doing it, but please do it concisely.

Best Regards, With Respect,
Ed in Virginia

P.S. I hope I speak for a bunch of other folks on here, who just want to trade and make money in the EUR/USD market.

I understand and agree with what you have posted.

Occasionaly I post about USD/JPY because at times news about this pair affects EUR/USD ...

Perhaps you may notice that when EUR/USD goes down USD/JPY goes up.

Not always but it does occur. Another reason is that when EUR/USD is going up in calm markets the Carry Trade in Yen comes back on by selling Yen and buying Euro's so USD/JPY goes up and of course it means the Yen loses value. The Yen appreciates in value when it heads towards 100.00

Thank you for your positive post and feel free to say anything you want without fear.

Good Weekend To You ...


Bruce
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  • #23,065
  • Aug 22, 2008 9:49pm Aug 22, 2008 9:49pm
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/lee082208.html

Snippet:

For those holding Freddie since Oct 2007, their stupidity has cost them 95% of their money as the stock has gone from $65 in Oct 2007 to $2.60 today.
I believe the same thing is happening now regarding gold, but in the opposite direction. People are refusing to believe that the dollar has lost its status. Furthermore, they think the Euro is the new reserve currency and that gold is expensive at $800. All those beliefs will be turned upside-down in 2009. When lending giants like Fannie and Freddie go down, and the government having to guarantee trillions of dollars of their collateralized debts at par which are currently selling at steep discounts, there are moral hazards to the extreme. I wrote extensively about this topic last November in an article titled “Subprime Mortgages Lead to Subprime Currency”:


Good Night ... Off to Bed as I have been up since 5:00 AM ...


Bruce
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  • #23,066
  • Aug 22, 2008 9:53pm Aug 22, 2008 9:53pm
http://mises.org/images4/ShanghaiWorldFinancial.jpg

  1. Introduction
  2. Do Skyscrapers Predict?
  3. Table 1: Skyscrapers and Economic Crisis
  4. Figure 1: Skyscrapers and Economic Crisis
  5. Cantillon Effects in Skyscrapers
  6. Cantilloned Buildings and Business Cycles
  7. When the Skyscraper Index Is Wrong
  8. References
  9. Notes

This article originally appeared in the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics vol. 8, no. 1 (Spring 2005).http://mises.org/images/icons/pdf.png An MP3 audio version of this article, read by the author, is available for download.

Introduction

The skyscraper index, created by economist Andrew Lawrence shows a correlation between the construction of the world's tallest building and the business cycle. Is this just a coincidence, or perhaps do skyscrapers cause business cycles? A theoretical foundation of "Cantillon effects" for the skyscraper index is provided here showing how the basic components of skyscraper construction such as technology are related to key theoretical concepts in economics such as the structure of production. The findings, empirical and theoretical, suggest that the business-cycle theory of the Austrian School of economics has much to contribute to our understanding of business cycles, particularly severe ones.

The skyscraper, that unique celebration of secular capitalism and its values, challenges us on every level. It offers unique opportunities for insightful analysis in the broadest terms of 20th-century art, humanity, and history. When criticism becomes captive to centers of power or prevailing theories or fashions, unwilling or unable to probe the process and the results, something important has gone wrong with one of the stabilizing and balancing forces of a mature society. (Huxtable 1992, p. 120)

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  • #23,067
  • Edited 10:00pm Aug 22, 2008 9:59pm | Edited 10:00pm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1219...n_commentaries


Bruce

P.S. Enough Bruce ... Stop Posting Links and Go To Bed .... 11:00 PM 18 Hours is enough ...
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  • #23,068
  • Aug 23, 2008 12:21am Aug 23, 2008 12:21am
Quoting DarkProdigy
Thats everyones sentiment. They trade demo with great success but with real money, theres real emotions involved. I was definitely victim of that, and well known for growing $1,000 mini accounts into $50k within a 1-3 month span. When I went in for real...oh man, the feeling changed so much...i was guarding every penny, blaming brokers for spreads...all sorts of random stuff. Oh...those were the days.

I trade with fundamentals and technical entrys/exits now live, but the feeling is different. What I did was basically save up money that i considered lost. Makes it easy for me to have no emotional ties to it at all and makes trading easier...
I don't agree with you brother
i am trading live
i started with $30 and know i am $1800 its not a span

dont believe me check this out

http://www.poisonfx.net/tradehistory/statement11.pdf

its my live statement still on my way to 100K

i am using high leverage because what i want is too big and i have nothing to loose $30 only
Don't compare your Trades with Others
  • #23,069
  • Edited 9:54am Aug 23, 2008 1:41am | Edited 9:54am
[quote=Warren Forex;2180496]
Quoting SpecialEd


I understand and agree with what you have posted.

Occasionaly I post about USD/JPY because at times news about this pair affects EUR/USD ...

Perhaps you may notice that when EUR/USD goes down USD/JPY goes up.

Not always but it does occur. Another reason is that when EUR/USD is going up in calm markets the Carry Trade in Yen comes back on by selling Yen and buying Euro's so USD/JPY goes up and of course it means the Yen loses value. The Yen appreciates in value when it heads towards 100.00

Thank you for your positive post and feel free to say anything you want without fear.

Good Weekend To You ...


Bruce
Thanks for this post Bruce , I like it . Specially information about carry trades & relation of UJ with EU I never tried or able to understand about.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #23,070
  • Aug 23, 2008 2:27am Aug 23, 2008 2:27am
Quoting DubaiFX
I don't agree with you brother
i am trading live
i started with $30 and know i am $1800 its not a span

dont believe me check this out

http://www.poisonfx.net/tradehistory/statement11.pdf

its my live statement still on my way to 100K

i am using high leverage because what i want is too big and i have nothing to loose $30 only
You have 1800 to lose mate remember that. You really want to lose 1770 and start again that would be crazy IMO.

What leverage are you using to get a mini at 30 on the first trade?
  • #23,071
  • Aug 23, 2008 2:48am Aug 23, 2008 2:48am
Bros what are your positions for monday discuss?

i am inclined to short from my overall feel of the fundamentals .. but it is already rather low... worry of rebounded
  • #23,072
  • Aug 23, 2008 2:55am Aug 23, 2008 2:55am
Quoting trading801
Bros what are your positions for monday discuss?

i am inclined to short from my overall feel of the fundamentals .. but it is already rather low... worry of rebounded
For me this is reversal http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23037
and I expected more then 40 pips up movement.
  • #23,073
  • Aug 23, 2008 5:42am Aug 23, 2008 5:42am
I don't usually post links but this is very interesting twist in freddie and fannie story

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...pensation.html
  • #23,074
  • Aug 23, 2008 6:01am Aug 23, 2008 6:01am
Next week ladies and gentleman without any analytics cr*p from mine.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euweek.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #23,075
  • Aug 23, 2008 6:14am Aug 23, 2008 6:14am
Quoting mikkom
I don't usually post links but this is very interesting twist in freddie and fannie story

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot...pensation.html
thnx for the article. some serious stuff in this if Fannie and freddie fail
  • #23,076
  • Aug 23, 2008 6:25am Aug 23, 2008 6:25am
Quoting 5ysfx
Next week ladies and gentleman without any analytics cr*p from mine.


Thanks for the info. In the less-than-week I have been here, I have to say your chart work/analytics are consistently solid and always informative.

As I said in my intro post a few days back, new to FX market and your posts have been great learning tools for me.

Continued best and success in all your trades.
  • #23,077
  • Edited 6:49am Aug 23, 2008 6:44am | Edited 6:49am
I just posted this on another thread that I started here on Forex Factory at the beginning of 2008.

Since it is from different information sources and I edited it as well I will just post it here as I posted it in The Fundamental USD/JPY Thread.

For everyone both new and experienced and in between ignore these proven rules of trading at your financial peril.

Everytime I have ignored the most important ones I have lost money trading FX ...

It is well worth the time to write the most important rules down by hand or in your computer in order to make it part of your mindset.

Have a Great Weekend ...

Hard Work and Patience ALWAYS pays when you are ready to learn properly your profession. There are no short cuts to winning in FX and in Life.


Bruce

Copy and Paste ...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_new.gif Aug 23, 2008 7:33am (1 min ago)
Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 1,739


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Missing In Action !
It has been awhile since I posted on this thread. I found this morning some rules well established to work in commodity trading. I am reproducing some of the more important ones here to read. Here they are. I have also edited them so it relates to Forex Currency trading.

Gann’s "28 Valuable Rules." It is best that you read these rules once a day before you make a trade.
1. Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than one-tenth of your capital on any one trade.


2. Use stop loss orders. Always protect a trade


3. Never overtrade. This would be violating your capital rules.


4. Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit of 10 PIPS or more, raise your stop loss order so that you will have no loss of capital.

5. Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts and rules.

6. When in doubt, get out and don’t get in when in doubt.

7. Trade only in active markets. Keep out of slow, dead ones.

8. Equal distribution of risk. Trade in two or three different Currency Pairs if possible. Avoid tying up all your capital in any one Currency Pair.

9. Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.

4

10. Don’t close your trades without a good reason. Follow up with a stop loss order to protect your profits.

11. Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades, put some money into a surplus account to be used only in emergency or in times of panic.

12. Never buy or sell just to get a scalping profit.

13. Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make.

14. Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.

15. Avoid taking small profits and big losses.

16. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.

17. Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.

18. Be just as willing to sell short as you are to buy. Let your object be to keep with the trend and make money.

19. Never buy just because the price of a Currency Pair is low or sell short just because the price is high.

20. Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the Currency Pair is very active and has crossed resistance levels before buying more, and until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more.

21. Select the Currency Pairs that show strong uptrend to pyramid on the buying side and the ones that show definite downtrend to sell short.

22. Never hedge. If you are long one Currency Pair and it starts to go down, do not sell another Currency Pair short to hedge it. Get out at the market: Take your loss and wait for another opportunity.

23. Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason, or according to some definite rule; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.

24. Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period of profitable trades.

25. Don’t guess when the market is top. Let the market prove it is top. Don’t guess when the market is bottom. Let the market prove it is bottom. By following definite rules, you can do this.

26. Do not follow another man’s advice unless you know that he knows more than you do.

27. Reduce trading after first loss; never
increase.

28. Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong;
getting in right and out wrong: This is making double mistakes.


Jesse Livermore
Understanding Speculation

I think the most valuable knowledge one can gain regarding trading and markets comes from studying market history, and studying the methods of successful traders of the past.
In the early part of the 20th century, Jesse Livermore was the most successful (and most feared) stock trader on Wall Street. He predicted the stock market crash of 1907 and once made $3 million in a single day. In 1929, Livermore went short several stocks and made $100 million. He was blamed for the stock market crash that year, and solidified his nickname, "The Boy Plunger." Livermore was also a successful commodities trader.

Here are some valuable nuggets I have gleaned from the book, "How to Trade in Stocks" (Traders Press, 2001) by Jesse Livermore (with added material from Richard Smitten). Most of the following nuggets are direct quotes from Livermore:

"All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis."
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

Livermore’s money made in speculation came from "commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start." Don’t hang on to a losing position for very long.
"It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind."
"Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes."
"When a margin call reaches you, close your account. Never meet a margin call. You are on the wrong side of a market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day."
Livermore coined what he called "Pivotal Points" in a market or a stock. Basically, they were (1) price levels at which the stock or market reversed course previously (i.e., previous major tops or bottoms) and (2) psychological price levels (such as 50 or 100, 200, etc.)buy a stock or commodity that saw a price breakout above the Pivotal Point, and sell a stock or commodity that saw a price breakout below a Pivotal Point.
"Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend."
A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong—opinions often are.

Few people succeed in the market because theyhave no patience. They have a strong desire to get rich quickly.
"I absolutely believe that price movement PaTTerns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humans—and human nature never changes."
When you make a trade, "you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade."
"I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I’m concerned it is a full-time job—perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success."
"The big money is made by the sittin’ and the waitin’—not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade.
"
An important point I want to make is that Jesse Livermore’s trading success did not come from any "inside" information or from some huge store of knowledge he had about each and every stock or commodities market he traded. Livermore’s trading success was derived from his understanding of human behavior. He realized early on that markets and stocks can and do change—but people and their behaviors do not. Therein was his formula for trading success—which has lived on and has not changed since Livermore’s heyday in the stock and commodities markets almost a century ago.


Richard Wyckoff
Limiting Risk
Richard D. Wyckoff is another famous trader of the early 20th century. (Many readers ask if I am related to Richard Wyckoff. No, I am not. However, I always tell folks it’s not a bad last name to have in my business.)

I derived much of my information on Richard Wyckoff from two good books: The first is "How I Trade and Invest in Stocks & Bonds," by Wyckoff. This book was first published in 1924 by "The Magazine of Wall Street." The second book is "Charting the Stock Market: The Wyckoff Method," first published in 1986 by Jack Hutson, the publisher of the magazine "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities."

Richard Wyckoff, like Jesse Livermore, was a Wall Street stock trader in the early 1900s. Wyckoff’s first job (at age 15) in 1888 was as a stock runner on Wall Street. By the age of 25, he had his own brokerage office. He also published his own market magazine and advisory newsletter.

Wyckoff’s basic trading methodology was to chart price, volume and their relationship over time. He would then search for "turning points" in the stocks or markets. He also grouped stocks into sectors and then charted the sectors. He called these "wave charts." Wyckoff believed that stock price action consists of waves of buying (or selling) that last just as long as they can attract buyers (or sellers). When that following is exhausted, the wave stops and a counter-wave begins. His theory is not unlike the Elliott Wave theory. Importantly, Wyckoff’s method in determining critical turning points was based not on mathematical formulas, but on investor psychology.
Below are some valuable "nuggets" I gleaned from the two books above. Many of these nuggets are direct quotes from Wyckoff.
"Anyone who buys or sells a stock, a bond or a commodity for profit is speculating if he employs intelligent foresight. If he does not, he is gambling."

Wyckoff’s goals were to select only stocks that move soonest, fastest and farthest in bull or bear markets. He limited losses and let profits run.\

"Stock market technique is not an exact science. Stock (and commodities) prices are made by the minds of men (and women)." Mechanical trading methods or mathematical formulas cannot compete with good human market judgment.

Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position.
Being in the market at all times is not the key to profits. Being in the market when there is a clear, unconfused technical signal and the trader’s judgment is not swayed by emotion was Wyckoff’s method for trading success.
"I have yet to find a man, in or out of Wall Street, who is able to make money in (markets) continuously or uninterruptedly. Like anyone else, I have good and bad periods."
"Success in trading means excess of profits over losses. If anyone tells you they can almost be invariably successful, put him down as trying to impose on your credulity."
"While I have made it a practice to limit my risk in most cases, I can trace most of my principal losses to my failure to place stop orders when the trades were made."
"Whenever a (market) situation is not entirely clear to me, I find I can clarify it by putting down on paper all the facts, classifying them as favorable and unfavorable. In thus writing it down on paper, I not only have time to reason out each point as I go along, but when I get it all down it can be looked over and analyzed to much better advantage."
"People are successful in business because, while they make mistakes at first, they study these mistakes and avoid them in the future. Then by gradually acquiring a knowledge of the basic principles of success, they develop into good business men. But how many apply this rule to investing and trading? Very few do any studying at all. Very few take the subject seriously. They drift into the market, very often get ‘nipped’ as the saying is, avoid it for a while, return from time to time with similar results, then gradually drift away from it, without ever having given themselves a chance to develop into what might be good traders or intelligent investors. This is all wrong. People go seriously into the study of medicine, the law, dentistry, or they take up with strong purpose the business of manufacturing or merchandising. But very few ever go deeply into this vital subject (of trading and investing) which should seriously be undertaken by all.

I hope everyone reads and understands this great knowledge of the past and the present and the future.

__________________
One Of My Favorite Video's on FX Trading !!!
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

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  • #23,078
  • Aug 23, 2008 7:01am Aug 23, 2008 7:01am
i like to read them, but i just can't stand how often they change their opinion


for example about fundementals or technical outlook in EUR/USD. I do understand that in short term it's possible, but in long term?

how do You find them?
  • #23,079
  • Aug 23, 2008 7:10am Aug 23, 2008 7:10am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
You have 1800 to lose mate remember that. You really want to lose 1770 and start again that would be crazy IMO.

What leverage are you using to get a mini at 30 on the first trade?
i started my live account with $30
www.poisonfx.net/tradehistory.zip

yes i know it was small money but i did well
i used 50:1 leverage
and know i am seriously thinking of giving my account some money
and when i will do i will surely use 3:1 leverage not more then that


Leverage Is Poison ~~~~ i love Poison
Don't compare your Trades with Others
  • #23,080
  • Aug 23, 2008 7:17am Aug 23, 2008 7:17am
Quoting toze30
i like to read them, but i just can't stand how often they change their opinion


for example about fundementals or technical outlook in EUR/USD. I do understand that in short term it's possible, but in long term?

how do You find them?
Not only do they change their positions, they also have conflicting opinions on the same page, depending on which analyst wrote which piece. For example, they have a piece that says USDCAD is set to go higher, and at the same time, another says that cable is about to rebound. You know USDCAD and GBPUSD cannot both go up at the same time.
Expected the unexpected
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