any bros on the same trend as me?
as we speak i'm down 40 pips, but leaving the longs in,
as gold/oil high, Bernanke sucks, so we should be ok bro
- #22,883
- Edited 9:49am Aug 22, 2008 9:40am | Edited 9:49am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2006 | 1,802 Posts
Ok lets stick to the thread, he does supply some good links
but i see where you're comin from
If you think that I am wrong then exactly what have I done wrong ? This post is not about you. It is about me and my right to be treated with respect and not have to read abusive material from a misguided individual.
I could always stop posting here but that would just give posters that want to interfere with others right to choose what they want to read no choice.
THIS WILL BE MY LAST WORD EVER ON THIS TOPIC ...
Very DISGUSTED !!!
Bruce
OVER AND OUT !!!
I am finished posting for today. I need a breath of fresh air and get back to more focus on my FX trading that I am doing now. I have Been shorting USD/JPY all morning and getting PIPS as it comes back. EUR/USD is now near Support without watching the lines on the charts go up and down.
Everyone who matters have a Great Weekend !!!
Even You Tulip ... I am not mad at you as you obviously do not understand your actions but it is wrong. Good Trading To You !!!
Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
- #22,884
- Aug 22, 2008 9:41am Aug 22, 2008 9:41am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2008 | 7,691 Posts
Yeah long on both, but dont take me as reliable,
as we speak i'm down 40 pips, but leaving the longs in,
as gold/oil high, Bernanke sucks, so we should be ok bro
- #22,885
- Aug 22, 2008 9:43am Aug 22, 2008 9:43am
The amazing thing is your comment. Do you NOT understand that this information can make you much Dollars if you take the time to understand it. This is what being a fundamental trader is all about. You are talking to an adult here who trades FX for a living. I will post a Snippet Here in the hope you read it and learn rather than be amazed at a chain link fence as to links.
Enjoy ! There Will Be A TEST !!!
The result? Losses are surging at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae bled $2.3 billion, or $2.54 per share, in red ink during the second quarter. That was the fourth straight quarterly loss, and much worse than the 72-cent forecast that analysts were carrying. Freddie Mac lost $821 million, or $1.63 a share. That compared with a profit of $764 million, or $1.02 a share, in the year-earlier period.
Other details weren't pretty. Freddie Mac's credit loss provision surged to $2.63 billion from $469 million a year earlier. The company also revealed that it had roughly 22,000 foreclosed homes on its books. That was the most in the almost four decades it has been operating.
Fannie Mae's credit losses jumped 66% to $5.3 billion. The company said it will cease buying Alt-A loans and slashed its dividend by 86% to preserve capital.
Investors are responding by running for the hills. Not only are they dumping many of their existing stock and bond positions, but they're also demanding that Fannie and Freddie pay up to borrow NEW money. One example: Freddie Mac had to fork over 1.13 percentage points in excess yield (over Treasuries with a similar maturity) in a five-year note sale earlier this week. That was up from 69 basis points in May and the highest in at least a decade, according to Bloomberg.
If you recall, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson tried to assuage these kinds of fears a few weeks ago by obtaining the authority to buy an unspecified amount of equity in the GSEs. He also was granted the right to provide the GSEs with an unlimited credit line from the government.
Paulson suggested at the time that the mere existence of this authority would obviate the need to actually use it. This allowed the administration to suggest that the cost to taxpayers would be limited or even nonexistent.
But the market just isn't buying it anymore. Investors are voting with their pocketbooks. They're rendering a simple verdict — namely, that the GSEs probably don't have enough capital to weather the mortgage crisis and cover all the losses they're facing. So they're going to need government support.
What is the ultimate outcome here? That depends on the credit markets. If Fannie and Freddie can keep raising money, even at more expensive levels, then they can drag this thing out for a while. But if debt and stock buyers completely step away, forget it. Who's going to give Fannie and Freddie money to keep operating in that event? The government — or more accurately, taxpayers like you and I!
Frankly, several indicators I monitor are signaling that something is rotten in the state of Denmark. I already mentioned that spreads on Fannie and Freddie debt over Treasuries are widening out. I could also point out that financial stocks are rolling over again ... that a measure of market risk called swap spreads is flashing "red" ... or that Treasury prices are rising sharply again. These all suggest bond market players are piling into "safe haven" assets and fleeing risk.
What This Means for You and Me
For the housing market and the economy as a whole, this GSE crisis is yet another hot poker in the eye. Fannie and Freddie (along with the FHA) have become essentially the only game in town when it comes to the mortgage market.
Private market players on Wall Street have all but stopped buying and packaging subprime or Alt-A mortgages into bonds, and there's little demand from end investors for that paper anyway. Meanwhile, the major banks have neither the appetite nor the capital on hand to lard their balance sheets up with conventional mortgages.
If Fannie and Freddie have to slash their mortgage guarantee operations, or shrink the size of their loan portfolios, to preserve capital, what's going to happen? The cost of home mortgages on Main Street U.S.A. will go up.
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1056/Bernanke-Fed.jpgDespite clear signals that the Fed has no intention of raising rates, mortgage rates remain stubbornly high.
Heck, it already is. Despite the lousy economy and clear signals from the Federal Reserve that it has no intention whatsoever of raising the rates it controls directly, mortgage rates remain stubbornly high. A 30-year fixed rate loan goes for just under 6.5% right now. That's not far from the multi-year high of 6.86% in mid-2006.
Bottom line: Mortgage credit will likely get pricier for some borrowers, and be cut off completely for others.
When that dynamic starts to change, I'll do my best to let you know. But until then, I'm going to reiterate what I've been saying for a long time now ... and throw something else into the mix:
What a load of B.S. Short sellers didn't make banks and brokers originate, buy, bundle, trade, and invest in all these crappy mortgages and mortgage securities. Short sellers didn't force lenders to make stupid leveraged buyout loans or reckless commercial real estate mortgages.
- Drown out Wall Street's siren song. Lash yourself to the mast if you need to. Do whatever it takes to avoid sinking your money into the financial sector.
- Play it safe when it comes to your own fixed-income investments — in other words, stick with short-term Treasuries rather than mortgage bonds, junk bonds, and the like.
- Don't fall for the trite argument I'm starting to hear. It posits that the reason the financial stocks are falling is because of some vast conspiracy among short sellers to drive these companies out of business.
And short-sellers most certainly did NOT go out in front of the public and repeatedly — REPEATEDLY — say they were done taking losses and didn't need more capital ... only to announce more losses and raise more capital a few months later.
The mess the financial industry is in is entirely one of its OWN making. This effort by some in Congress and the regulatory community to redirect the focus onto some nameless, faceless cabal of meanie hedge fund managers is patently ridiculous.
And by all means, keep your eye on Fannie and Freddie. They could really hold the key to the next big move in the markets.
Until next time,
You do have some informative links & i appreciate that, that said
i do believe in having time to trade as well
regards kev
- #22,887
- Aug 22, 2008 9:47am Aug 22, 2008 9:47am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2008 | 7,691 Posts
Yeah long on both, but dont take me as reliable,
as we speak i'm down 40 pips, but leaving the longs in,
as gold/oil high, Bernanke sucks, so we should be ok bro
- #22,890
- Aug 22, 2008 9:47am Aug 22, 2008 9:47am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,722 Posts
Up or down, gimme a ticket
the God of pips is good to me today.. saved me from my -200pips position.. hope we can continue this way
;Bernanke doesn't seem to make any impression.
TGIF, and have a nice week-end everyone.
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
- #22,896
- Aug 22, 2008 9:51am Aug 22, 2008 9:51am
- Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,722 Posts
Up or down, gimme a ticket
- #22,898
- Aug 22, 2008 9:52am Aug 22, 2008 9:52am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #22,899
- Aug 22, 2008 9:53am Aug 22, 2008 9:53am
- | Commercial User | Joined Aug 2008 | 7,691 Posts
And I like tulips ok except when he picks on Warren.
Have a good weekend all,
Ed
