EURUSD

Strategy: [email protected] Price rallied to retest the 10-day MA which oincides with the high from last Friday around 1.4830. This level held and we opted to flat the failure for a profit on the long trade. Daily trend studies are bouncing from oversold levels and risk remains for further gains here as well. Will rebuy dips intraday. (AS) 09:48 GMT

Benchmarks for Day ...

Dow Futures Down 53 Oil Up $1.44 to $117.00 US Gold Up $8.90 to $825.20

2 Year US Bond Yield at 2.25% and 10 Year US Bond Yield at 3.80%

The Spread is 155 Basis Points ...

US Dollar Index Link:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2

Note: I am shorting EUR/USD near 1.4800

Please Make Your Own Decisions ... Possible Market Mover at 8:30 AM

New Jobless Claims ! High Number OVER 475,000 will send Dow down

The Money is parked in the US Bonds especially the 2 Year Bonds and when they are sold watch where the money is flowing to by reviewing these numbers set as the Benchmark at 6:30 AM

Have A Good Trading Day !!!

Further Update At 6:50 AM

Poor German PMI data forced a slide back into the 1.4790"s but Euro Zone PMI was marginally better than expected so the Euro attempted to recover. But selling into the another 1.48-failure has kept risks skewed to the downside. Ahead of the North American open and a US Investment bank and a UK clearer have slammed EUR/USD with downside stops helping fuel the descent into the 1.4740"s. Option dealers note the proximity of the price to the 1.4750 expiries ...

Option Information !


10:48 FX OPTIONS: Morning Review: USD/JPY Vols Higher London, August 21. Vols along the USD/JPY curve have marginally extended the highs posted in late Asia amid the spot break sub 109.50 to 108.65. 1 month atmf reached 10.6, 2 month paid 10.55 and 3 month 10.45. Size US name seller 26 Nov 106.50 JPY calls at 11.0 (Tokyo cut) on USD 700mln , with plenty of interest to purchase. 1 week 109.50 JPY puts were lifted at 10.5 in USD 100mln as spot slipped sub 109.00. Good size Expiries at 109.00, 109.20, 109.35 and 109.75 and 110.00 today. Early demand for EUR/USD gamma as spot made a new weekly high at 1.4832 early on, but the setback sub 1.4800 has seen offers return. 1 week atmf paid 10.7 and given 10.6. 1 month atmf matching Wed"s 10.15 low. Risk reversals have come off along the curve today - big seller 6 month 25 delta at 0.45 EUR puts, leaving the 1 month at 0.5 (mid) from highs at 0.75 earlier this week. Expiry at 1.4750. Vols in Cable and EUR/GBP remain offered since sales yesterday and option expiries in the former are due at 1.8650, 1.8705 and 1.8710 today. Vols along the EUR/CHF curve dropped their 5.0 handle this week and remain offered. Big trade 18 Sept 1.5850 at 6.6 on EUR 500mln . Vols in AUD/USD are off lows with spot trading back under 0.8700. 1 month atmf up to 11.9 from 11.7 in Asia. [email protected].


Bruce

Went long @ .4776 TP 20+ SL 15

have I agreement of all you traders that we r at the end of the 4th Elliot's Wave of growth??

my opinion, the end of the 4th wave is at 4315, if break than 3850...

of course, its possible they do just a target of double top... for the record, this is the 4th wave by the definition... top of the 1st wave, I thing, is 3657... this MUST BE NOT broken if is 6032 top of the 3th wave...

my question is: do you have some other opinions, or am I wrong and do you think is that the end of droping U/E??

Thank you

P.S. sorry if I ask something you discuss, I am new one on this forum...

simple breakout setup with direction lines (dash yellow lines)
long in favour
bought some near 50 (3H 14ema)
oil is up gold is up despite euro drop a little
usd index broke range structure

TP is cyan line should be kissed tommorow.

Not an EW specialist but here is graph from another EW guru.
Hope this works because first time I have uploaded graph.

Thanks... for the first time, outstanding..)

it's a little bit blur... hmm

Go here and you can see original - it will be clearer:
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...alyst-599.html

long @ 1.4780 SL=20p

4850 seems a possibility?

I'm looking at 48.40

i came back late.look like i v already missed the party.is it stillbsafe to enter long considering the news in 30mins time

Oh.. very nice, it's much better...

Thank you again...

Why don't you wait for the jobless claims data? If it's very good you can enter a long position at lower prices.

Ok, back in the game, made a bit on this bull run. Good calls for longs so far 5ysfx, but my mid-term analysis shows me the opposite. Too risky to say that now, so I'll avoid disclosing details, but let's just say I personaly will be looking to short in one hour from now, unless - it ends up as a bearish candle already. And about tomorrow's run, I have a feeling it'll be in the opposite direction actually, this includes making a new low... Have been wrong plenty of times in this ranging market this week though, so not advising to give my advice much weight in your dicision making people. Unless of course you see 3-4 sizable bearish hourly candles starting at an hour from now..

EDIT: That's 2 hours from the original post actually, around 14:00 GMT.

yeah you're right to target 48.40 first.

I was tring to think about psyche levels though. Stuff that ends in 50 or 00 is something that I"m playing with at the moment. It's really interesting.

take right now as an example. If it breaks the 4800 level going down then I'm getting ready to go short.

I closed long position with 40 pip profit. Looking for another long entry @ .4810 with TP at .4840.

Mike

probably will retest lows today before heading higher.

let me guess 17 GMT eur/usd quoted 14862

numbers are bad it will drop

here we go again.downward swing.i am trying to ride with caution.