EURUSD

we are getting a pennant on the rsi on the 60 min . A bullish divergence and a possible bull flag ... granted not a true bull flag. Something has to give on the rsi in the next 12 hours as the tip of the pennant is being approached.

I think the fate of eurusd will hinge on oil tomorrow.

take 1500 account .... trade 7% of account with average 25 pips per day.

in 19 months you have 1.2 million


36 months ???? it is an insane amount of money....

disclaimer .. I am not EVEN close to 1.2 million ... but if I ever get there I will gladly post my account statements and write a book ...lol

Come on people, this thread should be about analysis and productive information. Talking how many pips you've made and how successful you are should be confined to a journal.

The price is having great difficulties breaking the weekly resistance turned support (green line). This pair has not had to encounter such a key level for a long time.

More times than not, when a price is hanging around a key level like this, it will break the other way.

There is however very little room to the upside. The 1.4950/60 area (red line) is the next major resistance area.

I feel strongly about this particular post that I just read so I am taking the liberty to repost it here entirely.

I tend to trade this way as from time to time. I have drawdowns waiting for a key data release to come out. I also trade intraday as most of you seem to do by reading the posts on this thread.

If you do not agree that is fine. I support this point of view in order to have longer term success. Now the more experienced traders here are probably able to intraday trade with a winning record but it is harder for sure.

I would be interested to hear your comments about this post.

Here it is...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_old.gif Apr 29, 2007 11:29am
http://www.forexfactory.com/customav...tar18061_9.gifNewstraderFX
Senior Member
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 2,536
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/im_yahoo.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Why Trading Forex is So Difficult - Long Term vs. Short Term
There are tons of reasons but I'd like to talk about two that I think cover a lot of ground.

Most traders seem to be very short term "swing" or intra-day traders looking to pick up a few pips and move on. What makes this do difficult is that trying to accurately predict the little 20-30 pip blips and bleeps over and over again on a consistent basis with a long term profit is something I consider to be nearly impossible for the vast majority of traders to do. You'll have some winning and losing streaks but, overall, if you manage to even keep your head barely above water you're probably way ahead of the game.

Most of these very short term traders rely on the technical indicators to set up their trades. Many have "backtested" a system, but I think backtesting is a huge waste of time. To really test a system you need to back your charts up as far as they'll go then slowly move things forward, entering and exiting trades as you go. And if you really want to have a good test, start with $100 and burn it if you lose it. Now do some more testing the same way.

Most trading "systems' are variations of MA crossover systems. Trade "when the little hand is on the 2 and the big hand is on the...". Yes in a long term trend they look OK, but see the above then tell me if they really work. They can't tell you when profits are maxed and they can't keep you out of choppy markets, which is when you'll be giving back all the profits made when you were lucky enough to catch a trend.

Very few traders are long term and there are some very good reasons why. Longer term trading requires a very good knowledge of fundamentals and economics. It takes time to digest all this and most traders probably find it very boring and difficult to follow but, what really makes this type of trading so difficult is that in order to stay in these trades you'll need to be able to ride out the inevitable ups and downs that occur as a trend progresses. There's much less "action" here because longer term trends don't get set up every day (or even every week). These kinds of trades don't appeal to the gamblers.

All this being said, I really believe the long term trader has a much better chance of being profitable. I'll explain this by setting up a few bets on the NY Yankees.

Everyone knows the Yankees are a very good team. Does that mean they'll win the world series every year? No, but here's my long term bet:

I'm gonna bet that the Yankees are gonna win more games then they'll lose this year. That's it. I only have one bet the whole season. Boring, really. What's worse is that they've lost 7 out of their last 8 and they're below .500 for the year so far. I'm losing pips and I gotta stay in and ride it out. Not easy.

Here's the Yankee bet that's like trading those short term blips and bleeps:

I'm gonna bet the Yankees score in this inning. Hey, they scored in the 2 previous innings. Alex Rodriguez is coming up, the short term MA of runs scored by the Yankees has crossed over the long term MA of runs given up by the opposing pitcher...

There's a lot more fun in betting this way. You're gonna have 8-9 bets/day for 162 days. Plenty of action, as long as your money holds out.

I guess i'm a boring trader. Hope I didn't bore you too much.

If longer term trading interests you and you want some help with fundamental analysis, I have several other threads that will help. Just do a search.
Last edited by NewstraderFX, Apr 29, 2007 12:23pm

What makes you think that I am not a very successful trader? Could be that I am a kazillionaire that is just bored to tears with spending money and come here to taunt you.

I don't have an ego that needs stroking (unlike you).

Would you like a prediction from me on what the E/U is going to do the next few days..? LOL

Best regards,

Bristol

PS Here is a fun little link with more info about you....


http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgboa...;f=16;t=006895

I couldn't agree more with the post about long term and short term trading. Trading smaller movements is just noise. Noise that is created to get you in on the wrong side of the trade. When you have a market like Forex that trends so well why wouldn’t you want to take advantage of the large swings? How else will you be able to let the profit run?



The more trades one takes increases the risk and the number of decisions that have to be made. The more decisions that have to be made tends to cloud the mind. A confused mind freezes in the heat of battle. After a while you can't tell which way is up or down. I've found that it's best to take a big step back and look at the big picture. This will help you position yourself with the longer term trend and pull bigger moves out with less risk and a whole lot less time in front of the charts. After all, there is life after trading.

i like your frog.

Hourly resistance levels have formed at 1.4750, 1.4760 and 1.4770 and key resistance has formed at 1.4810. A break above 1.4810 targets 1.4950. Minor support has formed around 1.4700 while key support is found at yesterday"s low at 1.4673. Traders expect a quiet session today ahead of European PMI data later today.
[email protected]

Should have just copy pasted the whole link, would blend in better.

In before someone argues that that's not him. "oh hey prove that thats him" Wow so many warren forex kiddies out there in the world, all copypasting.

Good stuff.

About 35 Minutes from now might give us a clue or not ...

They are still long at 1.4775 !

Bullish reversal day Tuesday triggered the current long, with prices holding 1.4675 overnight on the dip. The huge decline in prices from 1.6040 to 1.4630 remains vulnerable to retracement, with the standard minimum one, 38.2%, our target. Daily studies look to be forming a base at oversold levels, we will tighten the stop on a 1.4830 break. (ams) 23:06 GMT
end

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080820/...pU2WgCNTKs0NUE


Bruce

Trading smaller movements is just noise.

Markets are fractal. Whether the time period is 1 second or 50 years. Patterns exist that can be exploited. Noise is what the inexperienced eye sees.

Forex that trends so well why wouldn’t you want to take advantage of the large swings?

Another FX fallacy. Currency markets don't trend more than other markets.

The more trades one takes increases the risk and the number of decisions that have to be made.

Nonsense. There are only two types of traders. Trained and untrained. If you're trained and you're confused you're on the sidelines. If not - you're playing a game of probabilities.

How else will you be able to let the profit run?

When you're letting those profits run you are also letting those losses run. The larger the time frame, the larger the stop... the greater the draw down.

This will help you position yourself with the longer term trend and pull bigger moves out with less risk and a whole lot less time in front of the charts.

The longer you spend in front of your charts the easier it is to understand the nuances of the pair you're trading.

Sending EUR/USD Up ...

We will see ...

00:01 USD/JPY: Still Stuck In Range, Option Expiries, Orders Tokyo, August 21. USD/JPY remained range-bound overnight, holding between 109.72-110.28 between the New York and London sessions. The pair traded a somewhat lower 109.62-91 for most of Asian trading yesterday, rising slightly to 110.15 by the end of the Tokyo day. Though on the soggy side this morning at 109.70/79 currently (it has been as low as 109.65/70), the downside looks to be well supported with bidding interest still eyed in the 109.50-60 window. Some trader stops are eyed on a break below but more bids are seen to trail lower, notably from Japanese importers who, for the most part, have raised their bid-levels to 109.00 or just below. Topside, offering interest remains heavy still, progressively stronger above 110.00 and especially from 110.50. Japanese exporters are tipped here alongside option players defending presumed option barriers at 110.75, 110.85, 111.00 and 111.30. Stops are seen above each of these levels. Some trader stops may be seen above 110.30 as well. [email protected]

Bruce

http://i36.tinypic.com/15qdw1c.gif

fxterrapin, please do not post such large charts

Charts should be 600x600 or less.

: Grinding Higher As USD Under Pressure In Asia Sydney, August 21: The USD is broadly lower in Asia this morning and the EUR/USD is grinding through resistance between 1.4750/75, as Asian names and model funds have been the main buyers. A break above hourly resistance at 1.4775 targets key resistance at 1.4810 and stops are eyed above that level. A break above 1.4810 would suggest that the recent consolidation phase has ended and a correction higher is underway with a break above 1.4830 seen as confirming that to be the case. The EUR/USD trades 1.4770/75. [email protected]

Sorry, I usually do, but got lazy on this one...

Here is a 1-2-3 buy formation on a 15 min chart

Just trade between the fib levels , if we break 61.8 we go to 78.6 at 1.4810 , but it is to late to get into this trade due to the position of the rsi in the overbought territory.

The entry for this trade would have been the shallow bull flag and test of 38.2 % fib at 1.4740 , just above the 50 sma on the 15 min

who ever says indicators do not work I will disagree with them 100 % of the time

why do indicators work .. .well that is simple. Computers make indicators work , When there is a moving average cross over there are 1000's of computers all firing off trades at that very moment pushing up or down the price.

01:00 EUR/USD: Targeting Resistance At 1.4810 As EUR/JPY Supports Sydney, August 21: The EUR is moving higher across the board with the EUR/JPY breaking higher and helping to push the EUR/USD above hourly resistance at 1.4775. The next level of resistance is found between 1.4805/10 with stops eyed above the 1.4810 level. The EUR/USD has been grinding higher all morning after closing the NY session with a bid tone due to a higher close on oil and another fall in US yields. The EUR/USD has traded to 1.4785 and is now trading 1.4773/78. -- [email protected]