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  • #21,981
  • Aug 20, 2008 10:49am Aug 20, 2008 10:49am
Quoting laza
Compare the charts of oil and eur/usd, to see corellation.
http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/4...ndcrudeyf3.jpg
  • #21,982
  • Aug 20, 2008 10:53am Aug 20, 2008 10:53am
17:14 EUR/USD: The Get Up and Go, Got Up and Left - Looking For Clues New York, August 20th. Well the market has slipped back into a disinterested sideways chop, having bounced nicely off the lower Bollinger band at 1.4675, spot eked out a 1.4735 top, and then fizzled out. Lack of momentum has driven the pair lower reluctantly because traders are really looking for a better level to sell; or as an experienced trader described it the other day - a higher platform to dive from. The oil spurt and slide was a nasty bear squeeze, pulled out the few brave shorts with vulnerable positions, only leaving the guys that are comfortably short in the 1.4950-00 area. The disappointing oil price action looks ominous, and seems to indicate a real test of that crucial $110.00/111.50 area is coming - and with it, the algos will be selling Euros.
The longer we don't get a decent bounce, the longer the tech traders eyeing the massive 1.60 plus double top will be itching to sell. The only thing deferring a real downside test is the fact that daily RSI on EUR/USD is still a paltry 21.75 and hasn't been above 25.0 (Wilder's oversold level) since Aug 8. Aggressive traders use 20.0, and if the Euro don't bounce soon, they'll test it just to see what it's got; last at 1.4688. [email protected] /rd
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  • #21,983
  • Aug 20, 2008 10:55am Aug 20, 2008 10:55am
Hope this can clear up things
First graph pros are seeing
Second graph impulsive and momentum traders are sweating
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  • #21,984
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:02am Aug 20, 2008 11:02am
for those of you trading EU; divergence is bullish of the 1H
  • #21,985
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:07am Aug 20, 2008 11:07am
Quoting laza
Compare the charts of oil and eur/usd, to see corellation.
http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/336/oil2wp0.jpg
  • #21,986
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:07am Aug 20, 2008 11:07am
We are sitting at the psych level of .4700. Keep in mind the 00 are the most powerful because the black boxes key off these levels.

The bulls we able to muster up one good day this week... and that may be it if we don't see some upward momentum by tomorrow's EURO session.

Many were fooled by yesterday's bounce and were caught anticipating the next move up.

Unfortunately for the bulls and the novices the CTAs are long the dollar and beat back any advance at .4800. It's important to realize that ALL of the retail traders combined account for about 14% of all volume in the currency market. You don't count. You are along for the ride. If you want to ride along you better know who's driving.

This pair is due for a retrace - markets aren't linear - but picking a bottom has sent a lot of people back to their day jobs.

The overall trend remains bearish but this week we are ranging with a bias to the south.
  • #21,987
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:08am Aug 20, 2008 11:08am
I forsee a bullish tomorrow as today's low area has been tested for the past few days....


Goodnight fellow traders and see you tomorrow ; till then happy pippin
  • #21,988
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:12am Aug 20, 2008 11:12am
Quoting FXExpert
Hope this can clear up things
First graph pros are seeing
Second graph impulsive and momentum traders are sweating
How can you even look at the chart with so many indicator windows?

Price action is king, if you don't have a feel for the chart, it's like trading blind;
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #21,989
  • Edited 6:45pm Aug 20, 2008 11:18am | Edited 6:45pm
Currently long here, I think a break above 1.4760, and 1.4805 is pretty bullish, as this would suggest a retrace upto around 1.50 is on the cards. If that resistance holds, then the trend would suggest to watch out below as a break of 1.4630 should take us down to the trendline @ ~1.45.
Good Trading.

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/3...200808azd9.jpg
  • #21,990
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:19am Aug 20, 2008 11:19am
Thanks,WhipSawFX!
I think last hours crude oil inventories(oil price) has defined movement in euro and cable.
  • #21,991
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:30am Aug 20, 2008 11:30am
Quoting slide
How can you even look at the chart with so many indicator windows?

Price action is king, if you don't have a feel for the chart, it's like trading blind;
Well , as you can see , I use oscilators not technical indicators , if you don't know , bulls , bears , trend , and the force indicators are very important , and I like very much candles too , they show exactly the emotion of traders.
But we can't predict the unpredictable.

I dare you to try to trade with only the graph without candles , without nothing , without money managment , and no discipline , just feeling.You need to have feeling yes , but you still need to know what is going on , and a plan is nothing wihtout proper risk managment and proper discipline.
  • #21,992
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:31am Aug 20, 2008 11:31am
At the Daily pivot now 1.473x

adding short here...
  • #21,993
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:47am Aug 20, 2008 11:47am
Quoting Warren Forex
Now We Determine Which Trend ?

Tick Trend

30 Second Trend

1 Minute Trend

5 Minute Trend

15 Minute Trend

30 Minute Trend

1 Hour Trend

4 Hour Trend

Daily Trend

Weekly Trend

Monthly Trend

Yearly Trend

I explain it this way. Throw a ROCK into a Pond or River or Lake !

The FIRST RIPPLES are the Tick Trend ...

Then The 30 Second Trend

Then a Boat passes by and the 1 Minute Trend changes...

My Thoughts on Trends !!!

Trade Counter Trend on Longer Time Frames as In Top and Bottom of Bollingers ! I do that but ONLY going with the Longer Trend which is the one I choose decides my strategy.

I Hope this sheds some light for some on Trends !!!

Bruce

What about the next 4h trend bro

Grasp all lose all
  • #21,994
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:54am Aug 20, 2008 11:54am
Quoting acumen
We are sitting at the psych level of .4700. Keep in mind the 00 are the most powerful because the black boxes key off these levels.

The bulls we able to muster up one good day this week... and that may be it if we don't see some upward momentum by tomorrow's EURO session.

Many were fooled by yesterday's bounce and were caught anticipating the next move up.

Unfortunately for the bulls and the novices the CTAs are long the dollar and beat back any advance at .4800. It's important to realize that ALL of the retail traders combined account for about 14% of all volume in the currency market. You don't count. You are along for the ride. If you want to ride along you better know who's driving.

This pair is due for a retrace - markets aren't linear - but picking a bottom has sent a lot of people back to their day jobs.

The overall trend remains bearish but this week we are ranging with a bias to the south.

Please tell me exactly what time frame trend
Jesus Christ is my only Lord !
  • #21,995
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:59am Aug 20, 2008 11:59am
Shorted the 1HR UTL...didnt think it would reach it but it did...oh well...
Attached Image
  • #21,996
  • Aug 20, 2008 11:59am Aug 20, 2008 11:59am
I'm a buyer @ 1.4680 with SL 1.4640 my target 1.5000, pair went down today testing support @ 1.466's and I'm waiting for a retracement to 1.5 near to 38% fibo.
  • #21,997
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:04pm Aug 20, 2008 12:04pm
OIl and euro are directly linked it seems .... when oil moves so does eurusd ..

so for those trying to work out direction of eurusd here is my take on the oil chart

This to me , and proven today when oil dropped 116 to 112.8 and rebounded on steady buying pressure to 115 zone again ( that is equivalent to a 500 pip round trip) , is a the start of a bullish rounded bottom .

I bought oil 113.40 today and am holding to 120.20 . Moved stop to break even already. ....a no stress trade

The EU has a bullish div on the 60 min rsi. This has yet to be broken to the downside, and as long as this bullish divergence remains there is risk to shorts on swing trades in my mind ( day trading short is ok as it was today)

I think we are seeing a bullish 1-2-3 buy set up here with the 61.8 fe at 1.4770. A break of this will open up the 138 fe at 1.4950 zone

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #21,998
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:09pm Aug 20, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting Teefoo

What about the next 4h trend bro


What Is It ? I Am Not Trading EUR/USD until it nears 1.4800 and then I will short it unless it takes me out over 1.4825 (15 PIPS Above Weekly Pivot)

Have A Nice Day ... Thanks For The Post !


Bruce

P.S. One more point about my analogy ... The further out the RIPPLE gets the less force or NOISE there is so the Trend Is Clearer !!!

Comments ?
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  • #21,999
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:10pm Aug 20, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting pino2
I'm a buyer @ 1.4680 with SL 1.4640 my target 1.5000, pair went down today testing support @ 1.466's and I'm waiting for a retracement to 1.5 near to 38% fibo.

That's a long run;


All I saw was that price was rejected at 100SMA on 15 min chart, which was also only crossed briefly in the morning, i.e. rejected;

Should that line resist another attempt, and UJ get above the 109.90, I think we will have a reinforcement of the downward trend;


Short @ 1.4745, with stops in place;
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #22,000
  • Aug 20, 2008 12:11pm Aug 20, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting pino2
I'm a buyer @ 1.4680 with SL 1.4640 my target 1.5000, pair went down today testing support @ 1.466's and I'm waiting for a retracement to 1.5 near to 38% fibo.
My trade is sort of close to yours as well -- Looking to bid between 1.4650-70 with stops at 1.4625/30. Looking for the next 5 waves up from there.

GL
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
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