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  • #21,861
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:04am Aug 20, 2008 7:04am
Quoting acumen
.4880 first or .4700?
dont worry we will

Fake breakout near 148 has pushed the price to lower TL.
3H momentum and stochs still bullish and uptrend is intact..
We just load our boats and will reach my TP at 4950 probably.

So i was wrong i admit to it.

Move down then up no big difference to me anyway.
  • #21,862
  • Edited 7:10am Aug 20, 2008 7:07am | Edited 7:10am
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...nusecon119.xml

Snippet:




The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
Data compiled by Lombard Street Research shows that the M3 ''broad money" aggregates fell by almost $50bn (£26.8bn) in July, the biggest one-month fall since modern records began in 1959.
"Monthly data for July show that the broad money growth has almost collapsed," said Gabriel Stein, the group's leading monetary economist.


On a three-month basis, the M3 growth rate has fallen from almost 19pc earlier this year to just 2.1pc (annualised) for the period from May to July. This is below the rate of inflation, implying a shrinkage in real terms.
The growth in bank loans has turned negative to a halt since March.
More by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
More on banking "It's obviously worrying. People either can't borrow, or don't want to borrow even if they can," said Mr Stein.
Monetarists say it is the sharpness of the drop that is most disturbing, rather than the absolute level. Moves of this speed are extremely rare.
The overall debt burden in the US economy is currently at record levels, raising concerns that a recession - if it occurs - could set off a sharp downward spiral.
ge in real terms.The growth in bank loans has turned negative to a halt since March.
More by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
More on banking "It's obviously worrying. People either can't borrow, or don't want to borrow even if they can," said Mr Stein.
Monetarists say it is the sharpness of the drop that is most disturbing, rather than the absolute level. Moves of this speed are extremely rare.
The overall debt burden in the US economy is currently at record levels, raising concerns that a recession - if it occurs - could set off a sharp downward spiral.


Bruce
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  • #21,863
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:09am Aug 20, 2008 7:09am
Quoting Warren Forex
The 1.4800 is a double 00 and 1.4810 is a Weekly Pivot !

Regardless we are nowhere 1.4800 and who knows if we will be. No real new data out today. Tomorrow is New Jobless Claims and I am thing 475,000 but no data to think that at the moment. Will look for events on tap for today and post it on this post shortly.

The Day Ahead !!!

http://www.actionforex.com/latest-ne...2008081956958/


Bruce
Market mover today for oil/equities will be at 10:35AM EST -- EIA numbers. If there is larger draw on either crude or gasoline, look for profit taking in the dollar.
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
  • #21,864
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:12am Aug 20, 2008 7:12am
Quoting kodie2006
Market mover today for oil/equities will be at 10:35AM EST -- EIA numbers. If there is larger draw on either crude or gasoline, look for profit taking in the dollar.

I'm really starting to wonder if we will have any rally to 48.75 or 49 as people are predicting. Every rally has run out steam and been shorted.
  • #21,865
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:14am Aug 20, 2008 7:14am
Quoting 5ysfx
dont worry we will

Fake breakout near 148 has pushed the price to lower TL.
3H momentum and stochs still bullish and uptrend is intact..
We just load our boats and will reach my TP at 4950 probably.

So i was wrong i admit to it.

Move down then up no big difference to me anyway.
Bullish ? Uptrend ? 4950 ? What possible reason do you have to believe that ? Lower TL of what btw ?
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #21,866
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:17am Aug 20, 2008 7:17am
Quoting seesaw
I'm really starting to wonder if we will have any rally to 48.75 or 49 as people are predicting. Every rally has run out steam and been shorted.
Time will tell
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
  • #21,867
  • Edited 7:22am Aug 20, 2008 7:20am | Edited 7:22am
Not sure if the bull has that much steam.
Expected the unexpected
  • #21,868
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:24am Aug 20, 2008 7:24am
I thought I was going to lose about 40 pips yesterday as I shorted it during the massive upswing. Fortunately I had some patience and ended up making 20 pips this morning. I probably could have made more, as this things seems like it is on the way down again, but I don't have time to watch it
  • #21,869
  • Edited 7:42am Aug 20, 2008 7:31am | Edited 7:42am
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


I want to explain to everyone but especially to new FX traders and those that rely heavily on the charts why it is important to read the information that I post here.

I read through thousands of articles during the course of a month. Each day I read at least 25 to 50 articles from ALL points of view. The important ones I post here so everyone can read it if they want.

I have had excellent success trading in this style. If it works for me it can work for you. I am doing a lot of the work in finding the information so all you need to do is read it and understand it. If you do not understand just ask and someone here will explain it.

The Wrap Up that I am posting now is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT to read and understand.

As important to winning is the Technical Side the Fundamental is clearly essential in order to get YOUR EDGE !!!

Most of us read the news or hear it all day from CNBC or some expert. Unfortunately most of these experts are relying on faulty data and refuse to be critical of it. It is rather incredible to me that I NEVER hear anyone coming on CNBC to tell why Gold is going UP or who REALLY causes Monetary Inflation and why.

I never finished High School however I learned all my skills by being involved from being a Controller of a large Corporation to running my own management company. The point is if you take the time, I am sure most of you can understand what is posted here.

The reason to know it and understand it is to know when the information that you think is real is NOT in some cases.

This misleading information changes REALITY to a FALSE Perception as WE all saw in the last two weeks.

YES the economies are slowing in other lands BUT who knows how BAD it will really get SADLY in the USA !!!

READ the Report Posted and You Will GET your Edge ...

Then when a New Data Report comes out you will not be surprised like the market always is when it is bad. What if the New Jobless claims on Thursday really hits 475,000 ?

The Dow will CRATER and USD/JPY will go down and most likely EUR/USD will go up.

That is why trading as it shows in the Video on FTP along with proper Money Management is the Way to being a Winner in Forex !!!


Good Trading To All !!!


Bruce

Snippet:

Folks now I know why it happened. This is my opinion and I know in my heart that I am right.

It is actually scary to read this snippet that follows. You all have the ability to do your own research.

Have A Great Day !!!

For now, the problem at hand remains the Housing Crisis and the Banking–Credit Crisis, but in our view, as time passes, the odds will continue to grow that all of these problems morph into an even more serious Currency Crisis. In this vein, we view the current strength in the US Dollar as ultra transitory, and opening the door for the Federal Reserve to begin its next wave of interest rate cuts aimed at supporting the banking system and Wall Street. As more defaults are seen in coming months, the Fed in our view will have little choice but to begin monetizing these problems and creating fresh doses of digital dollars, all out of thin air. For Helicopter Ben, the new Super-Duper Helo is about ready to lift off, with one mission and one mission only -- paper over all of the bad debts and keep the system from bursting at the seams. For the US Dollar, the path of least resistance will once again be a relentless slide to new lows, this time likely accompanied by rising long-term interest rates as foreign capital abandons the long ensconced patterns of mercantilism and vendor finance. The torpedo explosions now resonating throughout the bulkheads of the sinking GSE’s cannot be ignored, as the unwinding of derivative positions at these institutions could well be the trigger event to place foreign capital into full retreat. With balance sheet impairment and collapse, will follow debt downgrades and the beginning of a potential exodus – a run from US GSE Agency paper. Fingers have been plugging up the damn thus far, but the pressure behind the walls appears ready to burst. For those who think the markets have been volatile in the last few weeks, get ready, cause we believe you haven’t seen anything yet.
That’s all for now,

{Promotion Removed}
  • #21,870
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:32am Aug 20, 2008 7:32am
Quoting kodie2006
Time will tell
If he's basing his analysis on your recent calls then he's got a good point.

If I recall you said this week was an uptrend.

So - is consolidation and uptrend?

Is a new low indicative of an uptrend.

I believe you said time will tell the last time and it has told us you were wrong.

It does appear as if we are building a base but so far there's nothing to indicate this is even a strong bounce.
  • #21,871
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:36am Aug 20, 2008 7:36am
Quoting acumen
If he's basing his analysis on your recent calls then he's got a good point.

If I recall you said this week was an uptrend.

So - is consolidation and uptrend?

Is a new low indicative of an uptrend.

I believe you said time will tell the last time and it has told us you were wrong.

It does appear as if we are building a base but so far there's nothing to indicate this is even a strong bounce.
I have been saying for the past week we are headed toward 1.4850-4920 area before next leg down. We will consolidate in the meantime. Let's see what EIA reports this morning for further s/t clues.
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
  • #21,872
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:44am Aug 20, 2008 7:44am
Hmm.. This reminds me, I said before the start of the week we'll be down close to 46, then up towards 48 and then down towards 45 or even 4450. We've more or less had that, about the first night I talked about a pull back too. So.... Main thing is still the second part of what I said, none of this matters much - trade what you see at the time, guessing ahead the second move to come is a gamble in my opinion.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #21,873
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:46am Aug 20, 2008 7:46am
Quoting Jurrasic
Hmm.. This reminds me, I said before the start of the week we'll be down close to 46, then up towards 48 and then down towards 45 or even 4450. We've more or less had that, about the first night I talked about a pull back too. So.... Main thing is still the second part of what I said, none of this matters much - trade what you see at the time, guessing ahead the second move to come is a gamble in my opinion.

As I see it, you have better odds playing roulette.

Good call!
  • #21,874
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:46am Aug 20, 2008 7:46am
Quoting kodie2006
I have been saying for the past week we are headed toward 1.4850-4920 area before next leg down. We will consolidate in the meantime. Let's see what EIA reports this morning for further s/t clues.
.4800 does appear to be a 'line in the sand'

It is being protected so a break there should blow out some stops and move the pair higher.

The Oil jump has been attributed to weather but It needs a reason to bounce around before heading south.
  • #21,875
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:48am Aug 20, 2008 7:48am
if you ask me bros.. although i am noob .. nothing matters.. its just catching the trend... so far all the charts candles fibos etc dont work..

1) if you predict it correct. it is because it happens to be like this

2) if you dont, you will find 101 reaons why not. Fact is, it happens to be not.

comments?
  • #21,876
  • Aug 20, 2008 7:57am Aug 20, 2008 7:57am
Quoting trading801
if you ask me bros.. although i am noob .. nothing matters.. its just catching the trend... so far all the charts candles fibos etc dont work..

1) if you predict it correct. it is because it happens to be like this

2) if you dont, you will find 101 reaons why not. Fact is, it happens to be not.

comments?
This pair is particularly difficult to trade right now. It has defied interpretation, expectation. DailyFx has been pounding a retrace to 52 now for days.

I personally would stay out of trading this until some really clear signals are established. I am shorting every rally because the trend is clearly bearish.
  • #21,877
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:09am Aug 20, 2008 8:09am
Quoting Jurrasic
Bullish ? Uptrend ? 4950 ? What possible reason do you have to believe that ? Lower TL of what btw ?
If ppl think that eu is still short in nearterm then i am 100% sure of opposite direction
This uptrend will be great mistery to u and will shows up at the end of rally if u didnt see it already.
U just observed a bullish flag.
Remember more short they will make then we(bull camp) quicker will reach our TP ;D

I am not a believerone i just trade what i see....alwayz

I will reconisder to reverse my longs when time will comes.
  • #21,878
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:22am Aug 20, 2008 8:22am
Quoting trading801
if you ask me bros.. although i am noob .. nothing matters.. its just catching the trend... so far all the charts candles fibos etc dont work..

1) if you predict it correct. it is because it happens to be like this

2) if you dont, you will find 101 reaons why not. Fact is, it happens to be not.

comments?
YOU ARE RIGHT SOME TRADERS BELIEVE THAT......AND I RESPECT THEIR DECISIONS. OR THEIER WAY OF THINKING.

A TRADER MUST HAVE A SYSTEM AND FIBOS AND CANDLESTICK FORMATIONS/PIVOT POINTS ECT....HAVE WORKED FOR ME....NOT ALL THE TIME BUT, MUST OF THE TIME THEY DO.

other wise how would you know, around what area to look for an entry point with a blank chart...
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #21,879
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:24am Aug 20, 2008 8:24am
Quoting 5ysfx
If ppl think that eu is still short in nearterm then i am 100% sure of opposite direction
This uptrend will be great mistery to u and will shows up at the end of rally if u didnt see it already.
U just observed a bullish flag.
Remember more short they will make then we(bull camp) quicker will reach our TP ;D

I am not a believerone i just trade what i see....alwayz

I will reconisder to reverse my longs when time will comes.
Are you suggesting that a great reversal is underway at this point, and you see it?
  • #21,880
  • Aug 20, 2008 8:29am Aug 20, 2008 8:29am
13:14 US TECHS: S&P Giving Up Its Pre-open Gains Boston, August 20. The boost received from the firm fiscal third quarter earnings and upbeat guidance on the current quarter's earnings from Hewlett-Packard has faded, with S&P futures moving back to unchanged after having been up 6-1/2 points. European bourses are mixed to higher today. Japan was lower but China rallied on hopes of a stimulus package being introduced. The US is poised for less information as compared to Tuesday, when bearish PPI, housing starts, defensive comments from various Fed Presidents and concerns that "the worst is yet to come" (voiced by the IMF's
former chief economist) all weighed heavily on the domestic market.

As noted previously, the August 11 failure to eclipse the June 26 range was
a key event, where a large-range session occurred on high volume. 50%
retracements of May-July range were also missed slightly higher just past 1320 Sep. The sense that the market is being traded but not bought and held is pervasive. Retracement targets of range set in July-August (to date) are at 1256.80 and 1243.50. Daily chart supports are at 1260 Sep, then 1252-53. Resistance starts at 1274, then 1278.50-1280.00 and 1285.
[email protected]


Oil Inventory at 10:35 AM


Bruce
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