EURUSD

1.4700000000000000 arrggh

Good morning all -- Looks like my 1.4700 limit I was talking about last night just got nabbed. I missed my second half position at 1.4685, but that's okay. Looking to sell at the top of the range.

once it can break thru 1.47, i hope it goes downnnnnn

I think that's more likely than the other way round.

Not no more. +0.50

No -- my limit is long at 1.4700 (1/2 position) and second half is at 1.4685. Stop fighting the s/t bounce we are seeing.

oil 115

lol You're fighting the trend.. sounds much more risky to me.

No I am not fighting the trend -- this is a whole new week. We are traders here. Last two weeks we saw dollar buying. Now we will see dollar selling. Just accumulate above 1.4660 and have stops at 1.4600 and under.

hmmmmmm trade with the trend?

bro why do u think it is LONG?

hmmm.... ok dude, good luck with that.
I'd expect 45 to come before any major (above 200 pips) retracements, but trade what you see..

Long term, trend is down, obviously. Short term trend is up. Like I said, check out Daily chart, and then place your stops at 1.4600 and below. You will be fine.

Are we looking at the same charts?

This is a few Euro traders trying to shake out the weak hands.

It's Monday.

Low volume.

The trend on this pair is DOWN.

here is my chart it fails to break the upper line of the pitchfork on 15M Tf. Lets see if it can break or hold the trend

I'm not sure about the short term trend being up anymore.

Look out Crude is making a reversal back down.

We know the trend for the week. Last week Asia was the buyer of dollars and Europe sold them right back. This week it looks like Asia will be selling their dollars back and Europe is buying them. Everyone needs to focus on the flow of funds and who has been buying/selling them. It is simply an exchange of hands.

dont listen to em champ, just add more and more longs! LOL

have pending short at 1.4697... under the tough support 1.47

I know this gentleman and he knows his business however the following exerpt from his editorial forms the basis of his views.

Exerpt:

Now that the underlying view of the market has changed what is the future of the euro? Mr. Trichet’s warning may well come to pass, we may see at least two quarters of negative growth in the Eurozone. If US growth remains moderate, above 1.0%, then the euro will suffer by comparison. What portion of the US second quarter GDP was supported by Federal stimulus checks is hard to tell. But as long as the US remains positive and the EMU does not, the euro will fall.

My opinion is opposite from the writers based on other information he is not factoring in. The same markets that according to him had it so wrong now have it so right.

I think not. The only change is the PERCEPTION based on REAL recent facts.

When the other shoe drops in the USA and the FED cuts to 1.75% and the ECB holds then it was ALL NOISE.

We both are going to see the TRUTH within the next six months and then we will know. Not one person has that crystal ball. Of course all bets are off on both sides if War breaks out in the Middle East other than knowing Oil and Gold will GO UP !!!

That's my opinion and I am sticking to it. You well may be right but that still remains to be seen. Being aware of both possibilities lets you trade without any extra bias.

That is why I constantly read both points of view and as new information comes out I constantly review and look for a fundamental change.

A PERCEPTION change is my FX trading EDGE knowing the PERCEPTION is correct short term but FALSE long term.

Let us see if 4Cast is correct at 1:00 PM EST when their call is for the NAHB number to go to an all time LOW at 15 VS 16 last month down from 18 the previous two months.


Bruce