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  • #20,941
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:08am Aug 17, 2008 11:08am
Quoting Jurrasic
This week.. A possible bounce off 46 to 475-48 and back down to 445-45 by the end of the week, which could then be a bottom for a big retracement/reversal later on. Ah predictions... who cares I trade intraday, unless there's a very clear chance of catching a big trend, which is not the case for next week as it seems. Good luck
Agree sir.
  • #20,942
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:18am Aug 17, 2008 11:18am
http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/3908/5454454fb5.gif
  • #20,943
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:20am Aug 17, 2008 11:20am
I was waiting for a positive gap this weekend but we are in almost the same than friday close, that shows the strong correction that suffers the EUR.
Monday we don’t see high impact news for this pair but I’m prepared for everything now.

http://www.tenfore.com/markets.asp?symbol=EURUSDLITEx
  • #20,944
  • Edited 11:57am Aug 17, 2008 11:30am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting kodie2006
You know that China has halted a lot of factories and construction building for the olympics because of pollution. What happens once olympics are done? You don't think China will go back to normal oil consumption?
They were also stockpiling a lot of fuel so they would not be caught short while the Olympics were happening.

As well as a lot of the construction was related to the Olympics.

Once "normal" growth restarts then "normal" fuel consumption will resume. But the world economy now is a lot different than the world economy was 6 months ago.

So I think $147 was the top in crude for this year and maybe next as well. New highs won't happen at least till 2010 IMHO.
  • #20,945
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:33am Aug 17, 2008 11:33am
Quoting SunTrader
I live by the credo:

Opinions are like a--holes. Everyone has one.

+ + +

But ultimately the markets don't care what one individual's opinion is.

Bill Gross, Warren Buffett and George Soros et al know that when they are wrong, which happens to the best of them every so often, that they don't fight the prevailing sentiment.

And the sentiment at the moment is US$ bullish. It may, repeat, may change back to bearish soon and keep in mind those guys are long term (years) players. But really, how many here on FF are in it long term.

Oh and in case many haven't noticed the dollar index hit a 7 month high Friday and is not far off a 10 month high!!!!!

So save the links to the doom and gloom "all the snoozws thats fit to print"/blog.



  • #20,946
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:36am Aug 17, 2008 11:36am
Quoting SunTrader
They were also stockpiling a lot of fuel so they would not be caught short while the Olympics were happening.

As well as a lot of the construction was related to the Oylmpics.

Once "normal" growth restarts then "normal" fuel consumption will resume. But the world economy now is a lot different than the world economy was 6 months ago.

So I think $147 was the top in crude for this year and maybe next as well. New highs won't happen at least till 2010 IMHO.
Totally agree -- The top in oil I think is in for the year, HOWEVER, with that said, ANY type of major geo-politcal event or signs of demand destruction not as bad as people think, we could possibly retest those highs.
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
  • #20,947
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:36am Aug 17, 2008 11:36am
Quoting SunTrader
They were also stockpiling a lot of fuel so they would not be caught short while the Olympics were happening.

As well as a lot of the construction was related to the Oylmpics.

Once "normal" growth restarts then "normal" fuel consumption will resume. But the world economy now is a lot different than the world economy was 6 months ago.

So I think $147 was the top in crude for this year and maybe next as well. New highs won't happen at least till 2010 IMHO.
That article Seesaw posted several pages back should play out in the coming months.

If any of you missed the post I urge you to go back and give it a second read.

Oil is a true bubble and barring any unforeseen event - $147 is the high this year.

Mike
  • #20,948
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:38am Aug 17, 2008 11:38am
I haven't used the ignore feature in a while but the poster who insists on mile-long diatribes mostly consisting of ego-driven drivel and blog links garbage is the proud receipient. Guess who?

I think the page count will drop exponentially and recommend it to anyone else who feels reading his posts are an almost complete waste of time. That is unless you are a sucker waiting to be fleeced.

  • #20,949
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:42am Aug 17, 2008 11:42am
Quoting SunTrader
I haven't used the ignore feature in a while but the poster who insists on mile-long diatribes mostly consisting of ego-driven drivel and blog links garbage is the proud receipient. Guess who?

I think the page count will drop exponentially and recommend it to anyone else who feels reading his posts are an almost complete waste of time. That is unless you are a sucker waiting to be fleeced.

I'm ignoring right along with you. Talk about blather.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #20,950
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:56am Aug 17, 2008 11:56am
Quoting cobraforex
I was waiting for a positive gap this weekend but we are in almost the same than friday close, that shows the strong correction that suffers the EUR.
Monday we don’t see high impact news for this pair but I’m prepared for everything now.

http://www.tenfore.com/markets.asp?symbol=EURUSDLITEx
The WORST ever was 16 last month. A first from the last two 16 prints...

Stay Tuned ! Who Knows it could be 15 or if it is 18 The Markets would JUMP all over it saying Housing Has Hit Bottom !!! Happy Days are Here Again...


Bruce
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  • #20,951
  • Aug 17, 2008 11:58am Aug 17, 2008 11:58am
Posted On: Friday, August 15, 2008, 12:37:00 PM EST
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
The Olympic Medal For Gold Price Indecisiveness
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif



Dear Friends,

  1. Goldman gets an Olympic gold medal for lowering their gold target for 2008. This is now a world record three changes within 12 month. I am waiting for the fourth change which will be back to an estimated four figures.
  2. The USA and Poland decide to really get Putin angry. It would seem that this might be asking for a major confrontation almost immediately.
  3. Pakistan is getting hotter by the day which will require a Coalition of the Willing to once again remove the nuclear hardware as the Taliban working with the Pakistan Army and Intelligence increase their control.
  4. Everything is just dandy in US economics as an increase in automobile manufacturing is reported, regardless of the fact they cannot sell them. It is always nice to see the dealer's lots filled.
  5. Fannie and Freddie, who are under critical financial strain, get the go ahead to back and buy more mortgages. They therefore get to securitize more debt instruments, even the huge but scary no paperwork Alt A types.
  6. JP Morgan has its debt downgraded as there is no loosening of credit conditions.
  7. Moody fired a significant number of top executives over miscalculation of ratings. You can be sure that ratings for many financial entities will now tank as they should have already
  8. A major reason for the follow through weakness of the euro is an assumption of increased interest differentials favoring the dollar over the euro because of assumed inflation fighting on the part of the US Fed as the US economy improves. There are multiple and critical holes in that reasoning which I will cover today on www.JSMineset.com.

You are witnessing violence in the gold market that is but a starter lesson. This violence has as its basis the first major coordinated currency intervention in the euro. The dollar as a mirror image of the euro rose with absolutely no economic basis. Gold fell as it is an inverse currency of the US dollar. Certain hedge funds went broke on other items. They were holding gold and the last of that was thrown into the market to sell after cash gold broke $800. Margined gold holders went in mass into negative cash positions which resulted in them being sold out last US evening as every commodity house now operates in the 24 hour market with computer margin real time valuations. All the gold and commodity bears are being dragged out for media exposure because it fits the agenda of the moment.
This is the prime example (as I told you a thousand times!) any margin in gold anything is a financial death wish.
As gold hit its lows last evening over $40 off I am told the Chinese entered the cash market to take the layoff in cash gold off the bankrupt hedge funds and negative value sellouts in the paper market.
You have seen massive involuntary liquidation last US evening. That type of a situation is common to lows. The bull market in gold will not be broken because fundamentally the problems will not obey and go away.

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  • #20,952
  • Aug 17, 2008 12:01pm Aug 17, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I'm ignoring right along with you. Talk about blather.
Yeah, I count 8 posts deleted all before 12 noon.

But there are actually people complementing, agreeing and encouraging him. WTF.



Edit: 2 more added. Dia...... of the mouth
  • #20,953
  • Edited 12:38pm Aug 17, 2008 12:36pm | Edited 12:38pm
From James Turk of GATA and independent consultant and analyst.

I have been reading him since 1999. Enjoy !!!

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary-print.html


Bruce

If the price of Gold recovers over $900 and above it will bring EUR/USD up as well. When Gold owned in Euro's is sold the money goes into US Dollars.

Snippet:

Lastly, I append current charts of gold and silver in terms of US dollars and euros. These charts put this week's big price drops into perspective. In short, we've seen drops like this before in this bull market.
Importantly, the precious metals remain within the clear uptrends delineated on the following charts. For the past twelve months ending Friday, August 15th, gold is up 17.5% and 7.8% against the US dollar and euro respectively. Silver, however, during the past twelve months is down -6.2% against the euro, but up 2.3% against the US dollar. And while silver's performance may look bad, it is worthwhile keeping in mind that the Dow Jones Industrial Average during this same period is down -9.3%.
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  • #20,954
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:21pm Aug 17, 2008 1:21pm
05:17 EUR Outlook For The Week - Commodities An EZ Data In Focus Sydney, August 17:

Review The unwinding of "decoupling" strategies was the main theme
again last week with long-term investors flushing out of long commodity and
short USD positions taking the EUR/USD down to levels not seen since late
February. EZ economic data didn"t surprise to the weak side as it has in
previous weeks, but the fact that EZ GDP was negative in Q2 bolstered the view that the European economy is at an earlier stage of the economic malaise that plagued the US economy over the past two years. The Goldman report on Thursday stating that the USD had bottomed followed by the sell off in gold, oil and other commodities on Friday ensured that the EUR/USD closed the week on a weak note.

Preview There is not a lot of US data out in the week ahead so the main focus will be on oil and other commodities again this week. EZ data includes German ZEW, European PMI and EZ industrial Orders. The market is decidedly bearish towards the EUR/USD, but if the longer-term longs are finished paring back the EUR/USD could consolidate or correct, as the short-term players are now short the EUR/USD. The IMM data excluding MXN released on Friday showed that the spec accounts were net/net long close to 120 k contracts as of Tuesday and if anything the USD buying accelerated towards the end of the week. The downward momentum of the EUR/USD trend lower is very strong so picking a bottom is not advised with the next level of solid support not found until 1.4360.

Key EZ data in the week ahead
18Aug 09:00 EUR Trade Balance
19Aug 06:00 GER PPI
19Aug 09:00 GER ZEW Current
21Aug 08:00 EUR Manuf. PMI Flash
21Aug 08:00 EUR Services PMI Flash
21Aug 08:00 EUR Compound PMI Flash
22Aug 08:00 EUR Current Account
22Aug 09:00 EUR Ind. Orders

Key US data in the week ahead
18Aug 13:00 NAHB Index
19Aug 08:30 Housing Starts
19Aug 08:30 Building Permits
19Aug 08:30 PPI
21Aug 10:00 Leading Indicators

Technical View There really isn"t any solid technical support for the EUR/USD
until major support around 1.4360. This level is both the 2008 low and the 38.2 fibo of the entire uptrend that started at 1.1640 in December 2005 and ended at 1.6038 in July this year. The EUR/USD has made lower weekly highs and lows for the past four weeks so last week"s 1.5083 high is key resistance. A break above Friday"s high around 1.4810 is needed to relieve the downward pressure. --

[email protected]
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  • #20,955
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:22pm Aug 17, 2008 1:22pm
Please read this article.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...65ABarrel.aspx

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday that oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell by an average 800,000 barrels per day compared with the same period a year ago -- the biggest volume decline in 26 years.
  • #20,956
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:30pm Aug 17, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting acumen
Please read this article.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...65ABarrel.aspx

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday that oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell by an average 800,000 barrels per day compared with the same period a year ago -- the biggest volume decline in 26 years.
Hehe -- and what about China? What about India? You know their demand increased the first half of 2008 and will continue to increase, especially with oil almost 30% off it's highs. The weak demand from the US is picked up from emerging countries.
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
  • #20,957
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:39pm Aug 17, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting kodie2006
Hehe -- and what about China? What about India? You know their demand increased the first half of 2008 and will continue to increase, especially with oil almost 30% off it's highs. The weak demand from the US is picked up from emerging countries.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/en...il-consumption

Yeah... China and India combined don't use half of what the US does.
  • #20,958
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:46pm Aug 17, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting kodie2006
Hehe -- and what about China? What about India? You know their demand increased the first half of 2008 and will continue to increase, especially with oil almost 30% off it's highs. The weak demand from the US is picked up from emerging countries.

05:54 OPEC May Cut Output Next Month - Wall Street Journal Sydney, August 17: According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran"s OPEC governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said Saturday that OPEC could decide to roll over or cut crude oil production from existing levels when the group meets in early September in Vienna. He told Dow Jones that "the market is oversupplied by at least 1 million barrels a day. If OPEC would like to remove this additional oil out of the market, then OPEC has to cut some production." [email protected]
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  • #20,959
  • Aug 17, 2008 1:54pm Aug 17, 2008 1:54pm
Whether you accept the information or not just in case it is true or mostly true you might want to read it. You can never have too much information. You can always throw out what you do not want in case it is opposite from what you believe.

There is a saying "Ignorance Is Bliss"

Link:

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/wag_the_dog.php

The Title Is:

WAG THE DOG:
HOW TO CONCEAL MASSIVE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

Ellen Brown, August 14th, 2008
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/wag_the_dog.php



Bruce
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  • #20,960
  • Aug 17, 2008 2:14pm Aug 17, 2008 2:14pm
Do we gap up or down today?
Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
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