Actually 4 trades(This will be long
)
. It's always tempting to tweak something here and there but my advice for what it's worth is don't change a thing until you have a few months minimum worth of live testing under your belt. It's only then you can have a pretty good idea of how it is performing.
Well, all I can say is OUCH. The rest of my current trades are... LOSING! Not a great start to this week, but I've come to terms with the losses.
Apologies if this has been addressed somewhere already, but what time periods do you guys usually use when viewing your charts using this method? 3 month, 1 month, 1 week?
This is all new to me so your patience and help is appreciated.
. I just think: "Something's wrong. The thing cannot be so simple".Hi, everybody!
I've across an interesting thought.
BB Method by Kevin is the real thing, isn't it? But...
Its simplicity makes me have some doubt about it. I guess this is because I'm a human being, and human beings are prone to complicate simple things. And that wish comes on a subconscious level (mine, at least)
And another point. We've got the method for free. Surely, Kevin is a great guy, whose generousity is unlimited (another thanks, friend!). But as it comes, so it goes, if I'm not mistaken. We've paid nothing but have got a workable and profitable TS. We've got disbalance. And it interferes with the usage of the method.
This is a bit of self-psychoanalysis and if it bothers you, ignore it. I try to put my thoughts together and to bring them into a right direction and I don't want to lose only because of my dubious feelings.
Maybe someone of you had success in curbing negative emotions? Share your experience, please.
Shard,
You'll be using daily candles for your trade signals.
Here's a link to Kevin's BB Method rules: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...56&postcount=1
Check out Kevin's other thread too at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...to_threadtools
where the basics of the strategy is discussed.
Hang in there Kevin
Days like this are sent to test you - if you are confident in your system and it has proved itself long term, then don't deviate from it at all. Trust me, I know
Good luck with your method and keep a tight reign on your money management and you will be just fine.
Kind Regards
Steve
Hi, everybody!
I've across an interesting thought.
BB Method by Kevin is the real thing, isn't it? But...
Its simplicity makes me have some doubt about it. I guess this is because I'm a human being, and human beings are prone to complicate simple things. And that wish comes on a subconscious level (mine, at least) . I just think: "Something's wrong. The thing cannot be so simple".
And another point. We've got the method for free. Surely, Kevin is a great guy, whose generousity is unlimited (another thanks, friend!). But as it comes, so it goes, if I'm not mistaken. We've paid nothing but have got a workable and profitable TS. We've got disbalance. And it interferes with the usage of the method.
This is a bit of self-psychoanalysis and if it bothers you, ignore it. I try to put my thoughts together and to bring them into a right direction and I don't want to lose only because of my dubious feelings.
Maybe someone of you had success in curbing negative emotions? Share your experience, please.
And if you get that urge to thank me again, why don't you thank the statistical geniuses that have REALLY made my method here.
Hey steviet and others,
Thanks for the words of encouragement! As of now, I am still up in account balance from when I started, so it isn't so bad losing profit that I made last week. Although, I would consider this a bit of an eye opener. I am now using 4% risk per trade vs 5%. I figure 25 chances sounds better than 20. Also, this will allow me to take more trades in different pairs, thus diversifying instead of being "maxed out".
Thanks,
Kevin
Bodyn,
Great post! I think you're right about my method being very simple. However, if you think of the statistical framework that guides the idea, it becomes a whole lot more complex. Essentially, many minds far greater than my own came up with a statistical principle that has a hand in almost all data we see. It involved standard deviations and the mean. Thankfully, I didn't have to go through all the creative processes of coming up with intense theories, but rather had the luxury of just implementing a principle preconceived before me. I believe in this method. Why? Because it is based upon ideas that MAKE SENSE. I also like how this method can more or less tell things in a percentage situation.
Let's take a look at a man named Chebyshev. Chebyshev came up with a theorem(God knows how) that states that a value has a certain % chance or probability of being within k standard deviations from the mean. Basically, that chance equals 1-1/(k^2).
EX Chebyshev's Theorem can be utilized for the following values of k:
k = 1.5 1 - (1 / (1.5^2)) = 0.5556 of all observations fall within 1.5s of m.
k = 2.0 1 - (1 / (2.0^2)) = 0.7500 of all observations fall within 2.0s of m.
k = 2.5 1 - (1 / (2.5^2)) = 0.8400 of all observations fall within 2.5s of m.
k = 3.0 1 - (1 / (3.0^2)) = 0.8889 of all observations fall within 3.0s of m.
k = 3.5 1 - (1/ (3.5^2)) = 0.9183 of all observations fall within 3.0s of m.
k = 4.0 1 - (1/ (4.0^2)) = 0.9375 of all observations fall within 3.0s of m.
So basically, by putting Bollinger Bands that graphically depict these rules, we take trades that are going against the predetermined probabilities. For instance, when a price moves out past the 3 standard deviation line, there is only a 11.2%(1-.8889) chance that this can happen, making it a good opportunity to go the other way on a trade.
And your other point regarding me. I am a 19 year old that would love to be rich by charging people money. But I am also a believer in karma, and what goes around will come around. So, have a few pips on me my friend, and maybe you can return the favor some day. If not, oh well
Sorry for the long response with potentially more information than you would like to know. I just want you all to know that I BELIEVE in this method, and I CANNOT see it failing. With that being said, GOOD LUCK!
One last thing,
Entered short USD/CHF
Trade #13
Sell USD/CHF
Date: 2/13/07
Price: 1.2467
Lots: 1
Reason:
Price closed in main channel today. SMA is FLAT so would have been 2 lots. However, price has crossed the SMA(where we would have TP on lot #1), so I just went with one lot. 84 pips S/L used and TP will await bottom channel touch
Best wishes,
Kevin
