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  • #20,861
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:01pm Aug 15, 2008 4:01pm
Quoting Warren Forex
17:49 EUR/USD: Meandering Despite Fed Comments New York, August 15th. Despite the fact that Chicago Fed president Evans sees less risk of a "severe downturn"; and inflation expectations are "extremely elevated", EUR/USD is meandering along in a 1.4660/80 sideways chop. Granted the direction has a downside bias, and a fresh session low has been recorded, but extreme oversold conditions on daily studies are deterring follow through. RSI is at 16.4, the oversold 5 and 20-day M/A lower Bollinger band oversold indicators are at 1.4650 and 60. It's been a big week and no one wants to get caught short at the bottom. Spot last 1.4663. [email protected]
The EURO has been overbought for 1 year...now it drops for 2 weeks and all of a sudden it's OVERSOLD???

Take a look at a daily chart: it's a parabolic, unhealthy upmove...when any market makes a big parabolic move, when it turns it tends to retrace most of it if not all of it.

Same with oil, same with gold. Same with ANYTHING.

If you've been around long enough, you should know that fighting a trend is the biggest mistake you can make as a trader.

Think of all the dollar bulls who've been shorting this pair until a month ago???

God knows how many accounts were blown up just because the idiotic trader wouldn't buy euros and go with the flow.

Now the US dollar is pushing down and making new lows every day, and this pair is oversold...LMAO...

It's just trending down, forget about it being oversold.

It will retrace at some point, maybe on Monday or maybe not until it touches 1.30 or 1.15...WHO KNOWS ANYWAYS???

Always be open to anything. Trading is not about making predictions, but about reacting QUICKLY to what the market is telling us.

I personally consider last week as one of the most important weeks in the history of this pair. This week was just a weaker continuation of what happened last week, validating last week's downturn.

I don't really care about what caused this fall, be it central bankers or institutionals or hedge funds.

The charts never lie. All you need to know is in there.
  • #20,862
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:07pm Aug 15, 2008 4:07pm
By the way, take a look at a monthly chart of this pair.

Look at the move from end of 98 thru end of 00. That looked a bit parabolic to the downside, didn't it?

What happened when EURUSD broke out to the upside?

It produced another BIG PARABOLIC move. it went from below 0.90 to over 1.60 in the last 8 years.

How can it be oversold?

Don't be surprised if you see this pair trading back at 1.25 in 1-2 years or even less.
  • #20,863
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:30pm Aug 15, 2008 4:30pm
You guys are too funny. EU drops 1380 pips off the high in 1 months time and everybody is trying to scalp a couple of points in the last hour of the end of the trading week on options expiration day in the dead of the summer.

R/R 101 out the window.
  • #20,864
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:03pm Aug 15, 2008 6:03pm
Possible move for week 08/16/08

EUR/USD

1.5200 High
1.4200 Low

500 for the week
  • #20,865
  • Edited 11:55pm Aug 15, 2008 6:12pm | Edited 11:55pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
By the way, take a look at a monthly chart of this pair.

Look at the move from end of 98 thru end of 00. That looked a bit parabolic to the downside, didn't it?

What happened when EURUSD broke out to the upside?

It produced another BIG PARABOLIC move. it went from below 0.90 to over 1.60 in the last 8 years.

How can it be oversold?

Don't be surprised if you see this pair trading back at 1.25 in 1-2 years or even less.
I agree with 90% of what you stated. However you made the point that I see as a fundamental FX trader. Things are now more in line with reality. The sell off while painful for many around the world on the opposite side of the trade against the US Dollar sets things up to resume.

As a fundamental trader let me tell you what the charts cannot. We do not agree however we need not agree since the market will supply the proof in the future.

Here is my call based on my known FACTS !

The charts are only facts in where they are today. They cannot PREDICT the future. The FUNDAMENTALS always do.

I was ahead of the curve one year ago as were many other Contrarians.

99% of them 10 times more knowledgeable than I.

The facts say the following.

(1) Gold will go over $1000 US

(2) Oil will remain over $110.00 US

(3) The US Dollar Index will go below 72 again.

(4) The US Housing Market has not reached the bottom.

(5) The worst of the banking crisis is not over.

(6) The USA is in recession.

(7) Inflation will continue to go up.

(8) The FED will most likely NOT RAISE.

(9) When September comes trends will resume after this sell off.

(10) This is a preview of the future.

I hope these facts allow you and everyone here to become rich.

I am blessed and I am already rich and hence there is the HOLY GRAIL of Forex.

Become rich as a human being without the need or greed or fear of money and you are rich even if you have little actual money. Apply those principles honestly and without harming others and all your dreams will be realized.

Have a Great Weekend...


Bruce

A Link:

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/M...5-2008_COT.pdf


We are now at the EXTREME in the FTP Formula

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!
{Promotion Removed}
  • #20,866
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:14pm Aug 15, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
The EURO has been overbought for 1 year...now it drops for 2 weeks and all of a sudden it's OVERSOLD???

Take a look at a daily chart: it's a parabolic, unhealthy upmove...when any market makes a big parabolic move, when it turns it tends to retrace most of it if not all of it.

Same with oil, same with gold. Same with ANYTHING.

If you've been around long enough, you should know that fighting a trend is the biggest mistake you can make as a trader.

Think of all the dollar bulls who've been shorting this pair until a month ago???

God knows how many accounts were blown up just because the idiotic trader wouldn't buy euros and go with the flow.

Now the US dollar is pushing down and making new lows every day, and this pair is oversold...LMAO...

It's just trending down, forget about it being oversold.

It will retrace at some point, maybe on Monday or maybe not until it touches 1.30 or 1.15...WHO KNOWS ANYWAYS???

Always be open to anything. Trading is not about making predictions, but about reacting QUICKLY to what the market is telling us.

I personally consider last week as one of the most important weeks in the history of this pair. This week was just a weaker continuation of what happened last week, validating last week's downturn.

I don't really care about what caused this fall, be it central bankers or institutionals or hedge funds.

The charts never lie. All you need to know is in there.
Bordering on great!!!
  • #20,867
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:20pm Aug 15, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting SunTrader
You guys are too funny. EU drops 1380 pips off the high in 1 months time and everybody is trying to scalp a couple of points in the last hour of the end of the trading week on options expiration day in the dead of the summer.

R/R 101 out the window.
I love the Truth ! How true your post is ! Have A Great Weekend. See you Sunday. FTP will become clearer soon. Fundamentals + Technicals + PERCEPTION !

The PERCEPTION is 100% wrong and as REALITY prevails the Charts will show the way and show US the Money. The only barometer of winning in Forex is how much more do you have than when you started.

You might be wiser, more knowledgeable but are you ahead or behind after each year of FX trading ?

Each of you has their own answer !!!


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #20,868
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:27pm Aug 15, 2008 6:27pm
Quoting amed12
Possible move for week 08/16/08

EUR/USD

1.5200 High
1.4200 Low

500 for the week
It is quite possible for 1.5200 to be reached ! My bottom is 1.4600 without charts. As US Dollars are sold and Euro's bought to send EUR/USD to 1.5200 if it does happen ? I see USD/JPY at 108.00 as the sale of US Dollars will raise the value of the Yen as the Carry Trade purchases are settled.

Usually EUR/USD going up helps USD/JPY to go down. The only wild card is the Dow since if the Dow goes UP then EUR/JPY goes UP as they Sell Yen and Buy Euro !

Any feedback on my post is welcome.


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #20,869
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:29pm Aug 15, 2008 6:29pm
Quoting acumen
Who thinks this is the bottom?

Who's going to step up to the plate here.

Come on... don't be shy.

I'm sure no one will say anything mean.

Yep absolutely acumen, we are all very excited. I have cancelled all our short and opened, huge longs. We are all so confident and my team have just started planning Mediterranean Cruises for the upcoming season. One of my team has ordered a new Porche with our, soon to arrive, winnings. It is all very exciting.

My team are just delirous with excitement.

Santa Clause feels that this is the most exciting time, it's like Christmas has come early. He so enjoys being in my team here.

The easter bunny is also quite happy with his position so in addition to going long on the EU he has gone for massive shorts on the CHF and UJ.

The Tooth Fairy has stopped delivering coins to spoilt children as she feels that the money is far better invested in Long EU, what did those kids ever do for her anyway?

Even Eboneza Scrooge is even dusting off the safe deposit box so he can get rid of all the sins of Christmas Past and make a killing on the new Long to prepare for Christmas Future.

I am still waiting for an order from Bugs Bunny but for some reason he seems less confident, at least that is what I think he means when he continually asks "Whats Up"

So the entire Phoenix team is prepared for the exciting LONG week to come. Gee I hope you are right and no one says anything mean.

Have a good weekend guys.

Phoenix.
  • #20,870
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:29pm Aug 15, 2008 6:29pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
The EURO has been overbought for 1 year...now it drops for 2 weeks and all of a sudden it's OVERSOLD???

Take a look at a daily chart: it's a parabolic, unhealthy upmove...when any market makes a big parabolic move, when it turns it tends to retrace most of it if not all of it.

Same with oil, same with gold. Same with ANYTHING.

If you've been around long enough, you should know that fighting a trend is the biggest mistake you can make as a trader.

Think of all the dollar bulls who've been shorting this pair until a month ago???

God knows how many accounts were blown up just because the idiotic trader wouldn't buy euros and go with the flow.

Now the US dollar is pushing down and making new lows every day, and this pair is oversold...LMAO...

It's just trending down, forget about it being oversold.

It will retrace at some point, maybe on Monday or maybe not until it touches 1.30 or 1.15...WHO KNOWS ANYWAYS???

Always be open to anything. Trading is not about making predictions, but about reacting QUICKLY to what the market is telling us.

I personally consider last week as one of the most important weeks in the history of this pair. This week was just a weaker continuation of what happened last week, validating last week's downturn.

I don't really care about what caused this fall, be it central bankers or institutionals or hedge funds.

The charts never lie. All you need to know is in there.
Best post to summarize the current situation of this pair;

Also I would stress, as much as the trend is your best friend, not being able to spot and accept the trend reverse is your killer; just stay away from this pair if you cannot resist temptation to go long for a quick buck;

I can easily see room for another 300 pips down, and then, if it doesn't rebound but breaks down the 1.43, get set for a biiiig ride to the next major support below 1.30; Problem with EURUSD is that due to this "parabolic, unhealthy" growth as stated above, it has no resistance to act as support on way down.

How long it may take for this scenario I cannot tell, but this is what the chart shows, and this has been one of the most disciplined pairs to go by the book.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0815_04pm_est.gif Size: 11 KB
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #20,871
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:32pm Aug 15, 2008 6:32pm
Quoting FX Phoenix
Yep absolutely acumen, we are all very excited. I have cancelled all our short and opened, huge longs. We are all so confident and my team have just started planning Mediterranean Cruises for the upcoming season. One of my team has ordered a new Porche with our, soon to arrive, winnings. It is all very exciting.

My team are just delirous with excitement.

Santa Clause feels that this is the most exciting time, it's like Christmas has come early. He so enjoys being in my team here.

The easter bunny is also quite happy with his position so in addition to going long on the EU he has gone for massive shorts on the CHF and UJ.

The Tooth Fairy has stopped delivering coins to spoilt children as she feels that the money is far better invested in Long EU, what did those kids ever do for her anyway?

Even Eboneza Scrooge is even dusting off the safe deposit box so he can get rid of all the sins of Christmas Past and make a killing on the new Long to prepare for Christmas Future.

I am still waiting for an order from Bugs Bunny but for some reason he seems less confident, at least that is what I think he means when he continually asks "Whats Up"

So the entire Phoenix team is prepared for the exciting LONG week to come. Gee I hope you are right and no one says anything mean.

Have a good weekend guys.

Phoenix.
I was just getting a feel for the thread.
  • #20,872
  • Aug 15, 2008 6:44pm Aug 15, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting acumen
I was just getting a feel for the thread.
I have learnt over the last week that I can't compare trading skillsets yet with the bulk of the guys here so I thought I would bring in some smiles.

Cheers
Phoenix
  • #20,873
  • Aug 15, 2008 7:04pm Aug 15, 2008 7:04pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I love the Truth !

Bruce
You're kidding right? You love the truth.

Jack Nicholson / Few Good Men - "You can't handle the truth!".
  • #20,874
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:29pm Aug 15, 2008 8:29pm
Quoting acumen
Who thinks this is the bottom?

Who's going to step up to the plate here.

Come on... don't be shy.

I'm sure no one will say anything mean.

The bottom is coming!!!

Just don't ask when

Could be Monday, or could be in 10 years time.

Just remember I told you so!

  • #20,875
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:48pm Aug 15, 2008 8:48pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
The bottom is coming!!!

Just don't ask when

Could be Monday, or could be in 10 years time.

Just remember I told you so!

Pippin ain't easy, but it sho is fun!
  • #20,876
  • Aug 15, 2008 9:10pm Aug 15, 2008 9:10pm
Where to next?

If the price breaks this level, we may see 1.44.

If 1.44 breaks we may see below 1.40.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #20,877
  • Aug 15, 2008 9:25pm Aug 15, 2008 9:25pm
Quoting acumen
Some might argue that one.
Long term secular trend is clearly up. See monthly chart in previous post.
  • #20,878
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:45pm Aug 15, 2008 11:45pm
Quoting SunTrader
You're kidding right? You love the truth.

Jack Nicholson / Few Good Men - "You can't handle the truth!".
I am a student of the Torah !!!

The Torah is about the TRUTH !!!

G-D Bless !


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #20,879
  • Aug 15, 2008 11:59pm Aug 15, 2008 11:59pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I agree with 90% of what you stated. However you made the point that I see as a fundamental FX trader. Things are now more in line with reality. The sell off while painful for many around the world on the opposite side of the trade against the US Dollar sets things up to resume.

As a fundamental trader let me tell you what the charts cannot. We do not agree however we need not agree since the market will supply the proof in the future.

Here is my call based on my known FACTS !

The charts are only facts in where they are today. They cannot PREDICT the future. The FUNDAMENTALS always do.

I was ahead of the curve one year ago as were many other Contrarians.

99% of them 10 times more knowledgeable than I.

The facts say the following.

(1) Gold will go over $1000 US

(2) Oil will remain over $110.00 US

(3) The US Dollar Index will go below 72 again.

(4) The US Housing Market has not reached the bottom.

(5) The worst of the banking crisis is not over.

(6) The USA is in recession.

(7) Inflation will continue to go up.

(8) The FED will most likely NOT RAISE.

(9) When September comes trends will resume after this sell off.

(10) This is a preview of the future.

I hope these facts allow you and everyone here to become rich.

I am blessed and I am already rich and hence there is the HOLY GRAIL of Forex.

Become rich as a human being without the need or greed or fear of money and you are rich even if you have little actual money. Apply those principles honestly and without harming others and all your dreams will be realized.

Have a Great Weekend...


Bruce

A Link:

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/M...5-2008_COT.pdf


We are now at the EXTREME in the FTP Formula

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!

We are near a turning point. Look at the video. The PERCEPTION is at the HIGH so now the Fundamentals take over and the Charts soon will confirm it.

I am on record even if not one person agrees. The masses are never right before a change. That is Human Nature !!!

Time For Bed !!!

Peace Happiness and Wealth !!!


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #20,880
  • Edited 12:52am Aug 16, 2008 12:46am | Edited 12:52am
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0815.html

Snippet:

“Last week, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had just announced record losses, and so had most reporting corporations. Unemployment was mounting, the foreclosure crisis was deepening, state budgets were in shambles, and massive bailouts were everywhere. Investors had every reason to expect the dollar and the stock market to plummet, and gold and oil to shoot up. Strangely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 300 points, the dollar strengthened, and gold and oil were crushed. What happened?…
It hardly took psychic powers to see that the Plunge Protection Team had come to the rescue…
Central Banks manipulate currencies in concert, by secret agreements directed from Europe. Gold is also manipulated, by massive selling of central bank reserves. Oil and any other game these Big Money Boys want to play can be manipulated as well. But markets can be manipulated by only so much and for only so long without fixing the underlying problem. There is more bad news coming down the pike, news of such magnitude that no amount of ordinary manipulation is liable to conceal it….
What to do? War and threats of war have been used historically to distract the population and deflect public scrutiny from economic calamity. AS the scheme was summed up in the trailer to the 1997 movie “Wag the Dog” – “there’s a crisis in the White House, and to save the election, they’d have to fake a war.”
{Promotion Removed}
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