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  • #321
  • Aug 14, 2008 3:12pm Aug 14, 2008 3:12pm
Quoting Plutonite
I'm sorry, but since we are calling BS, it's only fair that I point out the "Encyclopedia of Chart patterns" sounds like it's talking out of its butt. I don't have the book....
It must be tough to criticize something you've never read. Your concerns are addressed in the book and until igrok publishes his version, the book I referenced is well respected amongst market technicians.

Igrok said the diamond has a 90% chance of continuation and no one questions that. I quote a respected source and it's BS?
  • #322
  • Aug 14, 2008 3:40pm Aug 14, 2008 3:40pm
Quoting philmcgrew
It must be tough to criticize something you've never read. Your concerns are addressed in the book and until igrok publishes his version, the book I referenced is well respected amongst market technicians.

Igrok said the diamond has a 90% chance of continuation and no one questions that. I quote a respected source and it's BS?
I have this book and have found enough BS in there among, perhaps, some usable stuff for novices. My own research shows that whether a diamond will become a reversal or a continuation formation depends on its particular shape and the sequences of the moves inside the pattern and thus can be projected in advance. But anyways, it seems that at least I was right about the direction of today and let's see whether I'm right about the intraweek target or not. The charity window is now officially closed and I'm out of here. Cheers.
  • #323
  • Edited 4:02pm Aug 14, 2008 3:44pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting philmcgrew
It must be tough to criticize something you've never read.
Which is precisely why I am asking you to clarify! In fact, I specifically noted the fact that criticizing a book is hard without having it, if you read my post. I even said "bear with me"! What I am criticizing is the statement you made, for the benefit of us all. An objective and informed man like yourself won't be offended by that I hope

And I am calling both numbers BS, with due respects to the "experts" of course, who must be making billions of dollars trading with a 73% certainty off a machine-identifiable pattern. Please try to answer my question with regards to what exactly they mean. I honestly want to know, and you already know how much I respect and admire your writing.

EDIT: I also thought I'd add that I don't really think the majority of "technical analysts" provide any measure of academic worth at all to research. I spent the better part of 9 months reading works in the Journal of Finance, as well as publications in my own field of computer science with applications to finance. The best and most recognized literature is that which is perfectly clear about the realism of the claims with respect to testing scenarios, and the attention they gave to every step of their methodology. The encyclopedia may be very helpful, but quotes like the one in question are certainly not.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #324
  • Edited 6:31pm Aug 14, 2008 6:07pm | Edited 6:31pm
I can't believe that this is turning out to be nothing more than a simple post-contest against Bulkowski's great work regarding TA.

"there is no peer-reviewed statistical evidence, anywhere in academia or the public domain, that demonstrates patterns doing anything above 50%"

You/they gotta be kidding ? But then, who cares what any academics might say. They can continue to disprove/work against so many (markets)theory they can get their dirty hands on, while different price-patterns have been traded longer than 99.9% of any FF participants have (ever) lived.

"I also thought I'd add that I don't really think the majority of "technical analysts" provide any measure of academic worth at all to research"

I fail to understand what your concept of "majority of technical analysts" would mean. The majority of any profession would be called "amateurish" by those few who are in the "top niche" anyway.

I've seen some post from you that is worth reading but I fail to understand the value of those few sentence you bring up here, just to declare that I come in peace
Measure twice, cut once
  • #325
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:30pm Aug 14, 2008 6:30pm
Quoting SeekingLight
I agree with this line of thought.

Lately(last, oh, 12+ months) it seems just about ANYONE who has even a fidget of clue and dares poke their head "outside" at all, simply gets snapped and shot at on FF, leading to some people(imho rightfully) just thinking "Well, I certainly don't need this and YOU - but some of you could have used some of me".
Disrespect permeates.

I was afraid this would happen and over the years it seems it just gets worse. Maybe I just grew to expect too much of people(taking things serious instead of as a forum game) after seeing how it CAN be different.

Igrok - don't take 'em seriously and keep doing your thing in the usual hangout.

Some things are just not worth bothering about.

Things always feed back. If all you get for trying to help or participate is negativity or instant dismissal, then that simply ceases. We all get what we want out of things, and if people prefer FunFactory(some posts are strongly reminiscent of a day in Kindergarten rather than of a professional exchange of opinion) instead of ForexFactory that's what they will create.
And if the only reward for effort is ridicule, well, there's not as big a required masochist around who'll go for that long term.

It sometimes seems we progressively and consistently work towards kicking out those that actually have items of value, but can't stop growing the numbers of those with "gimme gimme" attitudes, "kewl" posts, mighty morphing troll powers and immense prowess...on demo.
IMHO that's neither in the spirit of a topic oriented forum(FF in general), nor in the spirit of something that's ironically even supposed to be it's upper echelon(1kT).
It's more than a bit...ridiculous at times.

Especially when I read that some folks don't even care to even try to post here anymore because they know the type of responses they will get about something they've done for a living for x years now.

Again - we'll get what we ask for with our behavior in toto.
I recall an event which could be described with some of the sentences you use above when James16 stepped outside he's "cave" and got hammered on by another trader with 10+ years experience. It was pretty ridiculous to read, which I'm sure you read too. In the end, both was "cool" enough to (somehow) shake hands, if I recall that event correctly.

The points is, which you also state in different words, is that FF don't contain so many experienced and successful traders that many (newbs?) want to believe and I think it's in every participants interestto keep those few with valuable experience who is kind enough to share their ideas and even systems with young folks, for free here at FF, along as possible.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #326
  • Aug 15, 2008 4:58am Aug 15, 2008 4:58am
lighten up guys! geesh
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #327
  • Aug 15, 2008 8:44am Aug 15, 2008 8:44am
Quick sell off the Paris open.

followed up by a choppy range. new test to the low coming in. will be interesting to see what happens at the low.

if it makes fresh lower ground tonight. really cements this as a agressive down trend.

Is the Bear here? I think so.

I am and have been for 3 months a USD bull..............
  • #328
  • Edited 10:38pm Aug 15, 2008 12:03pm | Edited 10:38pm
EU follows the exact trade pattern as discussed in this post earlier.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=304

We head down to 4356 support now.

I will discuss GU if requested.

***edited because the the font was too big.
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  • #329
  • Last Post: Dec 9, 2008 3:15pm Dec 9, 2008 3:15pm
On August forth.. the day before the EUR started moving down HARD..
DRT was noted saying..

Quoting DownRiverTrader
I know the general view has changed on the EURO, but I think it is heading up. At least I would say that there is so much indecision in the market(s) that we are not heading down hard. Clear as mud.

heh.. I've no doubt made bad calls myself when i do pick a direction.. I just thought this one was pretty good heh.. on a Epic Burn kinda level.. heh..
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