Long-term and short-term analysis of EUR/JPY. Please explain what you feel EUR/JPY will do in the not so distant future..
Well, for my first post here I might as well get the worst over and make a fool of myself
The brief part - I am still looking for the pair to get down into the mid 140's. Whether that is do-able given the expected stiffening resistance expected once USD/JPY crosses 110 remains to be seen; if Eur/Usd starts heading to 140, then it'll require a rethink, to say the least (145 would require eur/usd at 1.32 if USD/JPY can be held at 110 by the MoF/BoJ ; if the USD/JPY can be pushed down to the 105 level then Eur/Usd can pretty much stay where it is). Right now my primary guidance is coming off the trendline from the last little high before the fall and the height of the first bounce (in the charts below), supplemented by a LSQ 1 STD channel from the last little high
A peculiar technical aspect....
One of the things that fascinates me is what is known in modelling as "regime changes"; where the behaviour of the market (in this case) changes suddenly, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. In ASW it's rather like the analysis of "track segmentation" for evasive targets; it's similar to the "punctuated equilibrium" aspect of evolutionary theory. Except that in ccy pairs the punctuation can as easily lead back to a longer term regime as to a newer one. (It's also similar to the little musical jokes played by Beethoven and Mozart, but that's wandering too far afield..)
In the Eur/JPY, I noticed (looking at the weeklies) a number of areas where the behaviour - in terms of the trend rate and the wavelength of variance - a number of segments - where behaviour seems consistent for awhile, and then shifts into another regime. Several primary ones are shown on the first plot, as short trendlines with one std plotted alongside.
The curious thing is what happens when one extends these; they seem to provide good guidance w/r to the current plunge. The results are shown in the second plot. I've attached these rather than included them, hopefully they won't be too wide.
And it all may be just coincidence....
The brief part - I am still looking for the pair to get down into the mid 140's. Whether that is do-able given the expected stiffening resistance expected once USD/JPY crosses 110 remains to be seen; if Eur/Usd starts heading to 140, then it'll require a rethink, to say the least
(145 would require eur/usd at 1.32 if USD/JPY can be held at 110 by the MoF/BoJ ; if the USD/JPY can be pushed down to the 105 level then Eur/Usd can pretty much stay where it is). Right now my primary guidance is coming off the trendline from the last little high before the fall and the height of the first bounce (in the charts below), supplemented by a LSQ 1 STD channel from the last little highA peculiar technical aspect....
One of the things that fascinates me is what is known in modelling as "regime changes"; where the behaviour of the market (in this case) changes suddenly, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. In ASW it's rather like the analysis of "track segmentation" for evasive targets; it's similar to the "punctuated equilibrium" aspect of evolutionary theory. Except that in ccy pairs the punctuation can as easily lead back to a longer term regime as to a newer one. (It's also similar to the little musical jokes played by Beethoven and Mozart, but that's wandering too far afield..)
In the Eur/JPY, I noticed (looking at the weeklies) a number of areas where the behaviour - in terms of the trend rate and the wavelength of variance - a number of segments - where behaviour seems consistent for awhile, and then shifts into another regime. Several primary ones are shown on the first plot, as short trendlines with one std plotted alongside.
The curious thing is what happens when one extends these; they seem to provide good guidance w/r to the current plunge. The results are shown in the second plot. I've attached these rather than included them, hopefully they won't be too wide.
And it all may be just coincidence....
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Thanks for your analysis guys!
Ken,
I personally don't use fibs, but I appreciate hearing your input. Please continue to update us as you see fit.
Thanks,
Kevin
Halifax,
Interesting chart... And no need to post a disclaimer about you being wrong. We could all be wrong. Losing is OK with me, are you ok with it
?
I do think 140 is pretty extreme, unless you mean 145 by mid 140's, which PERSONALLY I still think is a bit liberal. UNLESS, strong support at 151.38 is broken(Indicated below in green horizontal line), I'm not going to be so quick to say short. You may be right, but for now, I'm going to see what happens when/if it gets to 151.38.
I derived the 151.38 from the Chikou Span which is the light blue line, and where it reached a support point(where it touches the green horizontal support line) creating a trough.
Appreciate your analysis Keep it up!
Ken,
I personally don't use fibs, but I appreciate hearing your input. Please continue to update us as you see fit.
Thanks,
Kevin
Halifax,
Interesting chart... And no need to post a disclaimer about you being wrong. We could all be wrong. Losing is OK with me, are you ok with it
?I do think 140 is pretty extreme, unless you mean 145 by mid 140's, which PERSONALLY I still think is a bit liberal. UNLESS, strong support at 151.38 is broken(Indicated below in green horizontal line), I'm not going to be so quick to say short. You may be right, but for now, I'm going to see what happens when/if it gets to 151.38.
I derived the 151.38 from the Chikou Span which is the light blue line, and where it reached a support point(where it touches the green horizontal support line) creating a trough.
Appreciate your analysis
Keep it up!
Of course it's a bit liberal, I'm Canadian But 147 by the end of October would be pleasant enough .....
But yes it is extreme, so it's basically one step at a time, there's a number of key support points to get through, particularly those set by daily lows over thelast month, and the Feb/March low..
But 147 by the end of October would be pleasant enough .....But yes it is extreme, so it's basically one step at a time, there's a number of key support points to get through, particularly those set by daily lows over thelast month, and the Feb/March low..
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Of course it's a bit liberal, I'm Canadian
But yes it is extreme, so it's basically one step at a time, there's a number of key support points to get through, particularly those set by daily lows over thelast month, and the Feb/March low..
I wish you luck, I'll probably be with you, but I like to see it first before I believe it.As for now, it looks to be a decent time to take longs for short-term only. I personally entered a bit too early at 155.75, but expect to make pips in a bit.
- Bullish Kumo(green cloud)
- Chikou Span(light blue line) above price
- Bounce(ish) off the Kijun-sen(Red Line)
EDIT: 2 pips locked in, will let it ride until it says "I'm going down, Kevin", currently up 16
EDIT #2: Here's my chart a couple hours later... I usually move my S/L along with the peaks and valleys of the chikou span(light blue line), and add 4 pips or so just for safety cushion(I like to breathe). I usually get a bunch of small winners, but when I bank, it's pretty good. Right now I'm up 28 pips, with 16 locked in.
LAST EDIT: TRADE stopped out at 156.00 for 25 pips
EUR/JPY TRADE REVIEW
Trailing stop triggered on short from 156.81 @ 156.41 just barely! After 2 tries at 156.17.
Only to see Target @ 156.17 breached about 13 minutes later
( see 5 min close up chart )
Did I move my T/S to close?? It was at 156.51.
Was there a better location...maybe the 21ema area?
I did not have PP's on the chart, came across the set up....Not totally Prepared?
Should I be satisfied that I had read the News article, and checked the eur/jpy...saw the opp. and captured what I did.?
Fxj
P.S. added Horizontal yellow lines to denote trade area, as original disappear when trade was closed. Vertical Lines denote time span of trade.
UPDATE: Just noticed I did not capture the entire pic I thought I had....see post 9 for the 15 min trade. The 5 min only shows the end.....Thought I got it all for a closer look on the 5.
Trailing stop triggered on short from 156.81 @ 156.41 just barely! After 2 tries at 156.17.
Only to see Target @ 156.17 breached about 13 minutes later
( see 5 min close up chart )
Did I move my T/S to close?? It was at 156.51.
Was there a better location...maybe the 21ema area?
I did not have PP's on the chart, came across the set up....Not totally Prepared?
Should I be satisfied that I had read the News article, and checked the eur/jpy...saw the opp. and captured what I did.?
FxjP.S. added Horizontal yellow lines to denote trade area, as original disappear when trade was closed. Vertical Lines denote time span of trade.
UPDATE: Just noticed I did not capture the entire pic I thought I had....see post 9 for the 15 min trade. The 5 min only shows the end.....Thought I got it all for a closer look on the 5.
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
- | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
....
Why 157.20.... ? Due to the reversal bar (Pin) and doji?
UPDATE: I'm Good....saw your chart ( 4hr ) more closely..... shorted the 61.8 with a trendline test, correct?
Had I used this analysis.....I'd have not shorted til 156.48.
Not saying one is better than other....just maybe one is more prone to a small scalp????????
Raczek...Thanx....No doji on 4hr, I was referring to my 15 min chart.....Though I am glad I could see your logic in your trade by myself. THX again!
Did you by chance have a limit order placed there, or was it a market order you took?
Fxj
Not saying one is better than other....just maybe one is more prone to a small scalp????????
Raczek...Thanx....No doji on 4hr, I was referring to my 15 min chart.....Though I am glad I could see your logic in your trade by myself. THX again!
Did you by chance have a limit order placed there, or was it a market order you took?
Fxj
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
- | Commercial Member | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
Had I used this analysis.....I'd have not shorted til 156.48.
Not saying one is better than other....just maybe one is more prone to a small scalp????????
Raczek...Thanx....No doji on 4hr, I was referring to my 15 min chart.....Though I am glad I could see your logic in your trade by myself. THX again!
Did you by chance have a limit order placed there, or was it a market order you took?
Fxj
I had a limit buy set for gb/chf (posted in my journal last night) at 2.4010 but it was never triggered.
- Joined Dec 2006 | Status: call me Kevin | 1,263 Posts
Nice shorts gentlemen. Jarhead, pips are better than no pips. Enjoying the analysis; feel free to keep it up whenever you can!
For the short-term, I am thinking a Long may be in order with a T/P of ~157.25. I think this is strong resistance here.
Reasons for Long:
. Enjoying the analysis; feel free to keep it up whenever you can!For the short-term, I am thinking a Long may be in order with a T/P of ~157.25. I think this is strong resistance here.
Reasons for Long:
- Tenkan-Sen above Kijoun-Sen(Blue line above red line)
- Green Kumo in the future
- Chikou Span above price
- Price is above kumo
I will wait for a bounce off either the Kijun-sen(red) or Tenkan-sen(blue).
This opportunity is void if Kijun-sen is broken.
- Joined May 2005 | Status: Member | 1,494 Posts
My approach to this pair is a bit different from whats been posted so far. I don't take many trades any more. The rolling top is one of my favorite formations. I shorted Friday AM and am holding. Something I have learned is that once my capital is protected (i'm at breakeven +16 pips to cover swap) I can wait for the trade to play out. As you can see I got in at what I thought was a bit early on 8/28 - was stopped out at BE + interest covered. 2nd trade. After it went 70 or so pips I figured it would retrace and so took a small profit. On this 3rd trade I believe I am in at the right time and will not be closing until receive a signal that the downtrend is over. (Or I get stopped out again)
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
