No Brainer Trades

Quoting Iron-man

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My phillosophy in trading matches my phillosophy in life. I have two plans available to me at all times. One plan for when things go right and one plan for when things go wrong. No system is perfect, including S/R trading but the guidlines are simple and easy to follow and with patience yield a pretty good equity curve.

There are two markets out there we must contend with, the ranging market and the trending market. Now this is why I say you don't need indicators. If we say I am trading a range bound market then we can get out the stochastics and the MACD and buy and sell the oversold and over bought conditions. The result will be many small winners and when price breaks out you will get a big loser that (more times than not) wipes out your previous 10-20 winners. Not to mention what the whole ordeal does to you psychologically in terms of future trading. If we trade the trend then we get out the moving averages, maybe throw in some Bollinger Bands and we wait for price to tag the opposite band and then go with the MA's as long as price is above them or below them depending on trend direction. The result will be a lot of small annoying losses and eventually a big pay off if you stay with it.

But waiting for confirmation on indicators is like waiting for a connecting flight at O'Hare Airport. Maybe it's on time and maybe it's not. (maybe it's cancelled) I like how Billy Ray puts it. "WHile other people are deciding if the trade is a good one, I'm already up 20 pips."

A quick look at a 4 hr chart will tell you what kind of market you are in and thus the two plan philosophy.

If it is ranging then I can play a few bounces with tight stops.

If it is trending then I look at where price is and look for a good level for price to pull back to and get with the trend. We tend to address larger trades here but if you have read BRV's post on scalping it is very good for intraday trading.

I have used just about every indicator out there (and here's a dirty little secret from the vaults of trading history that the Guru's won't tell you) Everything works in a trend. Bull and bear markets are very forgiving. What's drawdown really mean if you are with the trend? Assuming you didn't over leverage youself.

But C-note, I'm not here to convert anyone. I assume that is done when people choose to stay with the thread. I am here because I agree with the philosophy of the thread, and because helping people appeals to my humanitarian nature.

I hate to see anyone lead astray by these self-appointed guru's that would relieve innocent people of their hard earned money (money that they could buy food with or even trade with) in return for some supposed turn-key-indicator-ladden-get-rich-quick system.

So if it seems I have overstated my response to your staement, I apologize. My feeling is that one indicator leads to another and to another. It's like offering someone a plate of cookies where only a small amount of dog poop fell in the mix before baking. It probaly cooked out and I doubt you would taste it at all. So who want's a cookie?

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Quoting c-note

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you missed the whole point .s/r levels used with an indicator that is fully understood can be a big help. how ever I don't want to waste any more time on this subject on this thread.

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Quoting Iron-man

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Because I do it!

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Quoting ocelot

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The eurusd broke below 1.4815 and almost immediately retested that level where it turned to resistance. I did not short it there because price had not gone far enough away yet though as of this writing it has. I'm tempted to now take a short if it goes up and hits 1.4815 again but the way the market has been acting this past week makes me reticent. Thoughts from anyone?

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Quoting Iron-man

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There are reports of a large pool of buyers at 1.4700. So I would be inclined to fade a rally from there. Possibly 1.4760-76 area. But Friday markets can be nuts and sometimes the best move is to fade Friday's move on Sunday. We will see.

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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I like a bounce of GU at 1.8516

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Quoting Grath

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I am learning from this thread, but so new to this that terminology has me confused. Hate to ask, but... what does 'fade a rally from there' mean? Is that to close or partially close a position?

'Fading Friday's move on Sunday' ?

Thanks.
David

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Quoting CindyXXXX

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I like a bounce of GU at 1.8516

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Quoting SmokeyMcPip

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Great call CindyXXXX!

If it claws its way back up there then this level looks like an obvious level to go short again to me - 1.8612 is the weekly 61.8 fibo level and 1.8617 is where the last bounce up kicked off. Although I guess given its the end of the week and option ex day anyting can happen...

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Quoting SmokeyMcPip

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Evidently a spectacularly rubbish call. Apologies for that one!

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Quoting finswin56

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I'd hang in there for a bit. It's right at the really critical point right now, and oil is still heavy. A lot depends on the TIC report, but this could easily get you out at BE or better.

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Quoting SmokeyMcPip

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Cheers Finswin. Sadly I'd just gone in at 8612 with a 40 pip stop, so its dead already. Short and sweet (or is that bitter).

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Quoting Greenhaze

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Bought G/U @ 1.8532. Maybe this will be the long awaited retracement. The higest up momentum since this massive drop, possible PB on daily. Next week could be Dolar negative.

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Quoting SABTrader

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right now theres a perfect doji on the GU weekly chart @ 1.8665.
i know the week is only 90% mature but loking very bullish now.

coincidently the same on the AU @ 0.8685
steve

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