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  • #2,861
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:05pm Aug 14, 2008 6:05pm
Quoting lemmingboiv2
Isnt it weird that not sucking as bad as you thought you were going to is considered "good" news in todays financial times?

I know I have used this before but its kind of like being the Kansas City Royals. . . . . "Come see us this year. . . sure we will finish in last place but at least we wont lose 100 games. . . "

Not exactly an inspirational sales pitch for the global economic outlook. . . Which is why I say Bring on a Depression now lets deflate this silly worldwide bubble [of course shorting indexes the whole way] and get prices and expectations back to reality!
lol, I've had the same thought many times.

It brings up a good point though. If you look at the 15M chart of EUR/USD when German GDP numbers came out (better than expected) you'll see a quick surge. But then it seems that reality struck and the bigger money saw the data for what it was, proof that a recession was quickly striking the Eurozone's most important economy.

Normally I would find better than expected, but still bad numbers to be good for a currency in that the expected numbers should have been priced in. However, that just doesn't seem to be the case and makes a strong argument for this pair to go down even more.
Just wait until the UK actually stops with the hawkish rhetoric...
  • #2,862
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:09pm Aug 14, 2008 6:09pm
Quoting finswin56
which really is the point of contention tomorrow with options expiration. I have no idea what's going to happen there, just wish I did.

Today's prices totally fooled me. After yesterday's rise in oil, I expected to finally test former support around $120 and have a great short spot. Somehow it just went straight back down and took the EUR/USD with it. All after better than expected (although still negative) GDP numbers. But, I'm looking at that same 1.475x area too.
I'm still keeping my short position and adding to it on any bounces. This is the Titanic with this pair. Where do you see support for this evening on EUR/ USD?
  • #2,863
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:41pm Aug 14, 2008 6:41pm
Hello! No much experience here but I see a lot of support levels down to 1.4350. This is what I see:

1.4750, 1.4650, 1.4610-1.4600, 1.4575, 1.4525, 1.4500, 1.4490, 1.4460-1.4455, 1.4420, 1.4375, 1.4350, 1.4325.

I hope the experts can refine this "little" list.

Cheers.

Rafa.

Quoting seesaw
I'm still keeping my short position and adding to it on any bounces. This is the Titanic with this pair. Where do you see support for this evening on EUR/ USD?
  • #2,864
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:44pm Aug 14, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting tommyd
o.k.
How do you know?
Because I do it!
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,865
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:55pm Aug 14, 2008 6:55pm
Quoting seesaw
I'm still keeping my short position and adding to it on any bounces. This is the Titanic with this pair. Where do you see support for this evening on EUR/ USD?
I'm not really sure. IIRC, there is a theory that would put this around 1.4500 area. We had what is now a clear double top, and then broke through a strong level of support. The range between was in the ballpark of 750 pips. Supposedly, we should see an initial drop around that amount. I haven't done this long enough to say how accurate this is, but that would put it around 1.4500. I do see some pretty good former support levels fromt 1.4525-1.4450 which would coincide with that 750ish range. 1.4300 does appear to the be strongest level, but we may need a bigger corrective wave to eventually get there. I've learne the hard way to keep a small piece open, but I will certaily collect heavy profits around 1.4500.
  • #2,866
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:03pm Aug 14, 2008 7:03pm
Hi,

And the star award for the "why wasn't my entry just a little bit lower goes to....? Would of been a nice add on, talk about close.
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  • #2,867
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:10pm Aug 14, 2008 7:10pm
Quoting finswin56
I'm seeing 15th?
Nice Calendar, do you have a link? (forward thinking towards 2009...)
  • #2,868
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:13pm Aug 14, 2008 7:13pm
Quoting metalorn
Hello! No much experience here but I see a lot of support levels down to 1.4350. This is what I see:

1.4750, 1.4650, 1.4610-1.4600, 1.4575, 1.4525, 1.4500, 1.4490, 1.4460-1.4455, 1.4420, 1.4375, 1.4350, 1.4325.

I hope the experts can refine this "little" list.

Cheers.

Rafa.
Thanks Rafa
  • #2,869
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:15pm Aug 14, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting finswin56
I'm not really sure. IIRC, there is a theory that would put this around 1.4500 area. We had what is now a clear double top, and then broke through a strong level of support. The range between was in the ballpark of 750 pips. Supposedly, we should see an initial drop around that amount. I haven't done this long enough to say how accurate this is, but that would put it around 1.4500. I do see some pretty good former support levels fromt 1.4525-1.4450 which would coincide with that 750ish range. 1.4300 does appear to the be strongest level, but we may need a bigger corrective wave to eventually get there. I've learne the hard way to keep a small piece open, but I will certaily collect heavy profits around 1.4500.
Well, I wasn't even thinkin 1.45 at this point. We will need a couple of waves and bounces back (but they have been extremely feeble, we have had virtually no rally to speak of).

I'm thinking 4470 but 45 is good for me in the near short term. But I'm seeing a good support level this evening at 4760. It may break tomorrow with oil options expiration
  • #2,870
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:16pm Aug 14, 2008 7:16pm
Quoting fxid10t
Nice Calendar, do you have a link? (forward thinking towards 2009...)
yo!
http://www.theocc.com/publications/xcal/xcal2009.pdf
  • #2,871
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:20pm Aug 14, 2008 7:20pm
Quoting seesaw
Well, I wasn't even thinkin 1.45 at this point. We will need a couple of waves and bounces back (but they have been extremely feeble, we have had virtually no rally to speak of).

I'm thinking 4470 but 45 is good for me in the near short term. But I'm seeing a good support level this evening at 4760. It may break tomorrow with oil options expiration
No doubt. 4760 is exactly what I've had marked for a while now. Tomorrow (I technically today) is exactly the kind of day that could blitz right through that level. I'm thinking a lot will depend on where we are when the TIC report is released. I'm not so sure how that one will turn out.
  • #2,872
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:24pm Aug 14, 2008 7:24pm
Quoting lemmingboiv2
Iron-man I always wondered. . . So I love to trade AUD/JPY, do you (specifically) draw it on the previous uptrend for the daily or the 4 hr? Do you give any credence to the downtrend fibo? Or since we do not know how far the downtrend will go we cannot possibly use those levels with reliability?

[Great horizontal R level coming up on that pair at 96.354]

Also I know BRV uses Oanda, but they do not have weekley or monthly charts. . . . Which leads me to ask the question how long does historical signifigance remain signifigant? 2 Years? 10?

While I am not at the skill level to do this for a living (or a bankroll), I will say this system has begun to give me a nice stream of income on the side.

If anyone reading this still wants to hold on to your indicators, thats cool its your trade and your money. . . . I just ask that we not distract from this thread with them and focus on what really matters. . . . .$$$

Let me see if I can get everything covered here. I believe you are asking about fibs first of all and the answer is yes I draw them on the higher Time Frames, daily and 4hour and it is opposite the current trend in the TF where I draw it. There is almost always a reaction in the 50, 61.8 and 76.4% areas. (76.4) is the money line for the GBP and where you can get a descent reversal) When I posted the down trend for GBPUSD for August I posted one contrarian trade in the 1.9532 area and it was based on the 76.4 fib on the last move up on the 4 hr. That was a 60 pip trade against the trend with the possiblility of reversal (there's always a chance) but when price stalled I took my profits because I was against the trend. When price broke lower I posted 1.9520 to sell and get with the trend. I haven't posted a trade since because the downtrend has pretty much been a runaway. As far as drawing them with the current trend, it's a tracking tool for pullbacks at best but you can do that with simple S&R lines along the way. Such as I have demonstrated in the past on a 5M chart.

How long are lines good for? This one we have went over before but it bears repeating. There are two areas that have signifigance. The recent past and the distant past. By recent, I am usually looking from two days ago to a week or two and then on the the larger TF such as monthly and weekly look for the swings. Especially a spike. (They are good for scalping and good for trading longer term) Now as far as recent price action I will look at less than two days ago if price is a runaway like it has been on GU and GJ. But for the average non August (or February or December) markets I try to give it 2 to 3 days. If you want charts for longer Time Frame try www.NorthFinace.com or www.WHCmarket.com they are free MT4 (I have tried expensive charting packes and found MT4 is just fine for profitable trading) demos with no expiration and they have FX, Crude oil, Gold and the Indexes. So if you like Oanda (and many people do) you can use their platform and these MT4 charts. That's what Billy Ray does and it's what I do (though I trade with FXCM) Oanda has better spreads, FXCM has better leverage and they both offer research from www.IFRmarkets.com which is some of the best independent research I have found. I would rather just write my broker a check than trade off their in house research. (if feels more like a donation that way) So Lemming, I hope that helps. Slow and steady wins this race. Guard your equity. Because at the end of the day, it's all you have.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,873
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:26pm Aug 14, 2008 7:26pm
Quoting finswin56
yo!
http://www.theocc.com/publications/xcal/xcal2009.pdf

Thanks!
  • #2,874
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:32pm Aug 14, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting Iron-man
Let me see if I can get everything covered here. I believe you are asking about fibs first of all and the answer is yes I draw them on the higher Time Frames, daily and 4hour and it is opposite the current trend in the TF where I draw it. There is almost always a reaction in the 50, 61.8 and 76.4% areas. (76.4) is the money line for the GBP and where you can get a descent reversal) When I posted the down trend for GBPUSD for August I posted one contrarian trade in the 1.9532 area and it was based on the 76.4 fib on the last move up on the 4 hr. That was a 60 pip trade against the trend with the possiblility of reversal (there's always a chance) but when price stalled I took my profits because I was against the trend. When price broke lower I posted 1.9520 to sell and get with the trend. I haven't posted a trade since because the downtrend has pretty much been a runaway. As far as drawing them with the current trend, it's a tracking tool for pullbacks at best but you can do that with simple S&R lines along the way. Such as I have demonstrated in the past on a 5M chart.

How long are lines good for? This one we have went over before but it bears repeating. There are two areas that have signifigance. The recent past and the distant past. By recent, I am usually looking from two days ago to a week or two and then on the the larger TF such as monthly and weekly look for the swings. Especially a spike. (They are good for scalping and good for trading longer term) Now as far as recent price action I will look at less than two days ago if price is a runaway like it has been on GU and GJ. But for the average non August (or February or December) markets I try to give it 2 to 3 days. If you want charts for longer Time Frame try www.NorthFinace.com or www.WHCmarket.com they are free MT4 (I have tried expensive charting packes and found MT4 is just fine for profitable trading) demos with no expiration and they have FX, Crude oil, Gold and the Indexes. So if you like Oanda (and many people do) you can use their platform and these MT4 charts. That's what Billy Ray does and it's what I do (though I trade with FXCM) Oanda has better spreads, FXCM has better leverage and they both offer research from www.IFRmarkets.com which is some of the best independent research I have found. I would rather just write my broker a check than trade off their in house research. (if feels more like a donation that way) So Lemming, I hope that helps. Slow and steady wins this race. Guard your equity. Because at the end of the day, it's all you have.
Two words ironman

Boo Ya

Thanks!
  • #2,875
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:50pm Aug 14, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting lemmingboiv2
Two words ironman

Boo Ya

Thanks!
ditto...

I like oanda's tighter spreads and 5 second charts, really picked apart S/R earlier this week. I like ibfx MT4 cause I can hedge, selling the highs, holding one open w/breakeven stop, buy the lows, hold one open w/breakeven stop, until the range breaks... and it is easy to trade S/R with MT4 mobile
  • #2,876
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:15pm Aug 14, 2008 8:15pm
Quoting c-note
I agree that indicators do not need to be discussed on this thread, but 1 or 2 indicators that are fully understood can be very helpfull. S/R levels are not jnfallible as price can blow right thru them and form new s/r levels.
My phillosophy in trading matches my phillosophy in life. I have two plans available to me at all times. One plan for when things go right and one plan for when things go wrong. No system is perfect, including S/R trading but the guidlines are simple and easy to follow and with patience yield a pretty good equity curve.

There are two markets out there we must contend with, the ranging market and the trending market. Now this is why I say you don't need indicators. If we say I am trading a range bound market then we can get out the stochastics and the MACD and buy and sell the oversold and over bought conditions. The result will be many small winners and when price breaks out you will get a big loser that (more times than not) wipes out your previous 10-20 winners. Not to mention what the whole ordeal does to you psychologically in terms of future trading. If we trade the trend then we get out the moving averages, maybe throw in some Bollinger Bands and we wait for price to tag the opposite band and then go with the MA's as long as price is above them or below them depending on trend direction. The result will be a lot of small annoying losses and eventually a big pay off if you stay with it.

But waiting for confirmation on indicators is like waiting for a connecting flight at O'Hare Airport. Maybe it's on time and maybe it's not. (maybe it's cancelled) I like how Billy Ray puts it. "WHile other people are deciding if the trade is a good one, I'm already up 20 pips."

A quick look at a 4 hr chart will tell you what kind of market you are in and thus the two plan philosophy.

If it is ranging then I can play a few bounces with tight stops.

If it is trending then I look at where price is and look for a good level for price to pull back to and get with the trend. We tend to address larger trades here but if you have read BRV's post on scalping it is very good for intraday trading.

I have used just about every indicator out there (and here's a dirty little secret from the vaults of trading history that the Guru's won't tell you) Everything works in a trend. Bull and bear markets are very forgiving. What's drawdown really mean if you are with the trend? Assuming you didn't over leverage youself.

But C-note, I'm not here to convert anyone. I assume that is done when people choose to stay with the thread. I am here because I agree with the philosophy of the thread, and because helping people appeals to my humanitarian nature.

I hate to see anyone lead astray by these self-appointed guru's that would relieve innocent people of their hard earned money (money that they could buy food with or even trade with) in return for some supposed turn-key-indicator-ladden-get-rich-quick system.

So if it seems I have overstated my response to your staement, I apologize. My feeling is that one indicator leads to another and to another. It's like offering someone a plate of cookies where only a small amount of dog poop fell in the mix before baking. It probaly cooked out and I doubt you would taste it at all. So who want's a cookie?
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,877
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:16pm Aug 14, 2008 8:16pm
There goes that range bounce off 1.4755. . . . You will get another shot after it comes back off 1.4825 ish
  • #2,878
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:29pm Aug 14, 2008 8:29pm
Quoting triphop
My trading's come on leaps and bounds since studying this method, but I got a question with the exits.

Take the attached as an example.

I went short at 1.6220 EURCHF - and there was a spot on pip reversal down to 1.6183. I took off half the trade at 20 pips - all good and set the other half SL to B/E.

With the other half, I've left it on and watch it return to my entry and stop out there. It happens, no problem, but in the absence of other big S&R levels to exit the second half at, is this - in the long run - the most profitable way of managing trades? Those who've been trading like this for a long time - interested to hear what you reckon? Would you have let the 2nd half stop out too?
The reason that rule came to be was to protect equity but still give you a chance at a break out trade. The best of both worlds so to speak. I took a counter trend trade on USDCAD at 1.0710 the other day and covered half at +57 the other half went to +88 and then returned to BE and stopped out. Of course you can always re-evaluate when price reaches that level again if you feel it is worth re-entry. I had a pound sell trade back at 2.0016 that was like that. It paid 42 pips where I covered half and then stopped out at break even. Then price stalled around 2.0028 and I re-entered at 2.0019 and it fell 200 pips. Better to do it that way than sacrifice all your profits on the first trade. And better to protect your equity than get caught in a reversal.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,879
  • Aug 14, 2008 8:36pm Aug 14, 2008 8:36pm
Quoting len979
Wow. Another classic chart on eur/usd. Nice bear flag continuation pattern. I grabbed a tiny short @ 1.4825 and have now set stop to breakeven .... up +30 as I post this. I wonder if 1.4350 is gonna hold.
Edit: I think there's very good support at 1.4350 as it's 38.2% fib on weekly. I'm gonna open a fairly large position there
Evidently there were stops and sells below 1.4780 I have been treading lightly this week since I am now flat on all GBP and Euro sells. More downside potential (especially since I cashed out!) but I am watching for a turn.
Energy and persistence conquer all things! Ben Franklin
  • #2,880
  • Aug 14, 2008 9:00pm Aug 14, 2008 9:00pm
Quoting Iron-man
Evidently there were stops and sells below 1.4780 I have been treading lightly this week since I am now flat on all GBP and Euro sells. More downside potential (especially since I cashed out!) but I am watching for a turn.

hmmm 1.4787 immediate support now turned into resistance ?

i pray for enlightment
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
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