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  • #2,841
  • Aug 14, 2008 10:32am Aug 14, 2008 10:32am
Quoting lemmingboiv2
EUR/USD has been in between 1.4935 and 1.4832 bouncing off one then the other. . . . its no 200+ pip move but I have been playing it and doing quite well. . . why wait for the upside/downside when money is to be made now?
nice job lemming. I don't trade the short term sideways markets very well.
  • #2,842
  • Aug 14, 2008 10:37am Aug 14, 2008 10:37am
Quoting djambazov84
Lol, you are asking the same question in another thread. The same exact one.

?!?
Yes, I posted that on this thread first. Then I went to another thread and posted it because I found the exact same behaviour. It's like "1984". I guess some people will always be treated as "proles".
"War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength."
  • #2,843
  • Aug 14, 2008 11:11am Aug 14, 2008 11:11am
Quoting urchman
Those words is what i refer to as a classic no brainer tots that still makes me grind my teeth and say "HOW DID HE HIT THOSE PIPS?" Please lemmingboiv2 need u 2 share more light on how i can profit from those 'sideways?' market.PLEASSSSE

Really its just horizontal S&R lines that would normally make up a range I would be watching for a BRV No Brainer bounce (Very strong signifigance. . . . look at nov 2007-feb 2008 on the daily) However with the strength of the downtrend I was loathe to "shoot for the moon" so And this one just happened to continue bouncing inbetween the two ranges. . . . It gave a pretty strong signal on the 4 hr within the first day it was in this tight zone as to where its range was going to be (Look at the 8/11 16:00 and the 8/12 4:00 Bar) so I just set my buy and sell orders as appropriate with a modified stop loss. . . . half the normal 150 for profit half the normal 40 for stops. . . . .

This is the essence of BRVs system

Allthough it just violated my lower bound with a strong move @4842 like I expected (Because as BRV says a S&R is only good for a few bounces ESPECIALLY on such a short time frame......Plus oil is flat and S&P are up)



So look for a strong rejection low once this move finishes and trade the range......... so long as it lines up with historical S&R



[ And hopefully you have a larger overall downtrend sell from once this trend established itself for the big picture profit]

+Lemming
  • #2,844
  • Aug 14, 2008 11:15am Aug 14, 2008 11:15am
My trading's come on leaps and bounds since studying this method, but I got a question with the exits.

Take the attached as an example.

I went short at 1.6220 EURCHF - and there was a spot on pip reversal down to 1.6183. I took off half the trade at 20 pips - all good and set the other half SL to B/E.

With the other half, I've left it on and watch it return to my entry and stop out there. It happens, no problem, but in the absence of other big S&R levels to exit the second half at, is this - in the long run - the most profitable way of managing trades? Those who've been trading like this for a long time - interested to hear what you reckon? Would you have let the 2nd half stop out too?
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  • #2,845
  • Aug 14, 2008 11:18am Aug 14, 2008 11:18am
eur/usd looks set to break minor support at 1.4815. Next stop could be 1.4350's. It's formed a nice bear flag on 4hr chart.
  • #2,846
  • Edited 12:13pm Aug 14, 2008 11:40am | Edited 12:13pm
NZD/USD is at .6969... its going to move... the question is which direction is going from here?

i went long @ .6981
Just focus on the pips. The rest is insignificant.
  • #2,847
  • Aug 14, 2008 11:45am Aug 14, 2008 11:45am
Wow. Another classic chart on eur/usd. Nice bear flag continuation pattern. I grabbed a tiny short @ 1.4825 and have now set stop to breakeven .... up +30 as I post this. I wonder if 1.4350 is gonna hold.
Edit: I think there's very good support at 1.4350 as it's 38.2% fib on weekly. I'm gonna open a fairly large position there
  • #2,848
  • Aug 14, 2008 11:49am Aug 14, 2008 11:49am
Quoting len979
eur/usd looks set to break minor support at 1.4815. Next stop could be 1.4350's. It's formed a nice bear flag on 4hr chart.
Are you going to wait for some consolidation below that level then try to play it as resistance?
  • #2,849
  • Aug 14, 2008 11:56am Aug 14, 2008 11:56am
Quoting Gregus83
Are you going to wait for some consolidation below that level then try to play it as resistance?
Yeah. I usually wait for breakouts/breakdowns to be confirmed before I start to play in the direction of the trend. The problem with that strategy is most times, especially when the trend is strong there might not be any bounces... That's why I opened that tiny short at 1.4825.
  • #2,850
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:00pm Aug 14, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting len979
Wow. Another classic chart on eur/usd. Nice bear flag continuation pattern. I grabbed a tiny short @ 1.4825 and have now set stop to breakeven .... up +30 as I post this. I wonder if 1.4350 is gonna hold.
Edit: I think there's very good support at 1.4350 as it's 38.2% fib on weekly. I'm gonna open a fairly large position there
I agree for the most part. It may get to that 1.4350 area, but I think it will take some time. For now, I'm just hoping for a pull back to 1.4815ish to get a nice short position. I've got a small piece around 1.4800 because the first run didn't allow for many pull backs.
  • #2,851
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:07pm Aug 14, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting finswin56
I agree for the most part. It may get to that 1.4350 area, but I think it will take some time. For now, I'm just hoping for a pull back to 1.4815ish to get a nice short position. I've got a small piece around 1.4800 because the first run didn't allow for many pull backs.
well that was quick. Hit 1.4815 and shot back down 10 pips immediately. Now let's see if there's conviction in this down move. I wouldn't be surprised to see it struggle with the 1.5780/50 range as that held the top of many days from Nov through Feb. Should be interesting to watch. I really didn't think we'd get a new move down until next week. August really is odd.

Tomorrow should be treacherous. Options expiration plus a European holiday.
  • #2,852
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:18pm Aug 14, 2008 12:18pm
Quoting manistra
What do you think about current market indecision ? (EURUSD)
I think we may have upside break soon (upper TL under pressure )
If it breaks, I think it will not be long lasting break. After intense EUR selloff last days i really doubt that lowest point will not be tested again in near future.

(This is NOT No brainer trade, of course, I am only posting this to share my thoughts with you and see your opinion)
I am happy this played out for most part. Now waiting for another test of lowest low, and then hopefully reversal from around level 1.4750 back to 1.4900
  • #2,853
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:36pm Aug 14, 2008 12:36pm
Quoting finswin56
Tomorrow should be treacherous. Options expiration plus a European holiday.
I thought the options expiration was on the 21st this month?
Time hides Nothing
  • #2,854
  • Aug 14, 2008 12:54pm Aug 14, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
I thought the options expiration was on the 21st this month?
I'm seeing 15th?
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  • #2,855
  • Aug 14, 2008 1:18pm Aug 14, 2008 1:18pm
Dear Thread,

As an oblique aside to this thread and in the continuing search for consistent profitability, why couldn't one trade not just the S/R levels but also take breakouts of points that are 'used and abused'? In short, what constitutes 'used and abused' that one could fee comfortable taking BOs?

Cheers,

Lenoxer
  • #2,856
  • Aug 14, 2008 2:37pm Aug 14, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting Lenoxer
Dear Thread,

As an oblique aside to this thread and in the continuing search for consistent profitability, why couldn't one trade not just the S/R levels but also take breakouts of points that are 'used and abused'? In short, what constitutes 'used and abused' that one could fee comfortable taking BOs?

Cheers,

Lenoxer
This is BRV's explanation:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1265
Gone to a better place
  • #2,857
  • Aug 14, 2008 3:08pm Aug 14, 2008 3:08pm
Quoting pipeye
Not only is it a nice number to go long, but it has a beautiful pattern to back it up!
Hmm. How many times can this H & S test the neckline? That's the question. Similar pattern of S & R on AUD USD.
Gone to a better place
  • #2,858
  • Aug 14, 2008 3:12pm Aug 14, 2008 3:12pm
Im (carefully) eyeing 1.4753 as the lower bound for the latest level of S and 1.4842 for R on this slooooooowwwwwww decent towards 1.43 could grind out 2-3 bounces. . .

Of course a news item or wild commodity or equity swing could quickly decimate that S. . . .Which is why I said I am eyeing it "carefully" with mad crazy tight stops
  • #2,859
  • Aug 14, 2008 3:16pm Aug 14, 2008 3:16pm
Quoting lemmingboiv2
Im (carefully) eyeing 1.4753 as the lower bound for the latest level of S and 1.4842 for R on this slooooooowwwwwww decent towards 1.43 could grind out 2-3 bounces. . .

Of course a news item or wild commodity or equity swing could quickly decimate that S. . . .Which is why I said I am eyeing it "carefully" with mad crazy tight stops
which really is the point of contention tomorrow with options expiration. I have no idea what's going to happen there, just wish I did.

Today's prices totally fooled me. After yesterday's rise in oil, I expected to finally test former support around $120 and have a great short spot. Somehow it just went straight back down and took the EUR/USD with it. All after better than expected (although still negative) GDP numbers. But, I'm looking at that same 1.475x area too.
  • #2,860
  • Aug 14, 2008 3:25pm Aug 14, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting finswin56
... All after better than expected (although still negative) GDP numbers. .
Isnt it weird that not sucking as bad as you thought you were going to is considered "good" news in todays financial times?

I know I have used this before but its kind of like being the Kansas City Royals. . . . . "Come see us this year. . . sure we will finish in last place but at least we wont lose 100 games. . . "

Not exactly an inspirational sales pitch for the global economic outlook. . . Which is why I say Bring on a Depression now lets deflate this silly worldwide bubble [of course shorting indexes the whole way] and get prices and expectations back to reality!
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