EURUSD

lol

Well, I took a partial short at 4787. It was right on the money. It may go higher in which case I will add to my short, but I doubt it.

4751 is S1 pivot and lowerr bb on 20m... might hang out for a breather, rolling downhill is hard work if you're a pip

short triggered...

No Link ... Snippet:

THE INCREDIBLE USDOLLAR BOUNCE
The USDollar has reacted powerfully from three important factors: 1) false USEconomic growth reports, 2) new weakness in Europe echoed by the EuroCentral Bank, and 3) a selloff from a frenzied crude oil price. The August Hat Trick Letter analyzes these items one at a time. An effective backroom force was also utilized by the central banker brethren, who find themselves desperately on the defensive to avoid systemic breakdown and bank system implosion. WHAT DID CENTRAL BANKERS DO??? The foreign central bankers actually doubled their pace of interventions to purchase USTreasury Bonds in US Federal Reserve custodial accounts, which broke the upside resistance. The last three weeks ending early August had twice the pace of USTBond purchases than the previous twelve months. Details are in the August report.
Is it unpatriotic to point out the grotesque economic growth lies and blatant intervention to corrupt free markets? Nowadays, yes, it seems. The newly defined patriot uses lies, covers lies, and criticizes those who expose lies. Such people wear brown shirts underneath their collared dress shirts, a joke that probably only 2% to 5% of Americans comprehend. Hint: see Nazi and nickname "brown shirt” movement in 1928 Germany. The USTBond is the vehicle for US$ support and movement. Clearly, the central banks are intervening to push the USDollar up, perhaps realizing with technical assistance from Treasury Secy Paulson that the DX index was vulnerable to a huge sudden rise.
The EuroCentral Bank was plain and clear. The ECB is not in a position to hike the official interest rate. They confirmed the economic slowdown that is spreading across the European Union. The euro fell right away, and powerfully so. My analysis a month ago was clear, that the ECB was not going to continue on rate hikes, and would probably reverse those rate cuts. Now my thinking is more akin to believing that the ECB wanted to engineer a top of the euro, so it could reverse from speculative gravity. Details of the disaster unfolding in Europe, centered in Spain perhaps, in the August report.
The last powerful factor was the selloff in the crude oil market. As the crude oil price falls, typically the USDollar strengthens. Demand for energy commodities generally are down in the Untied States. The Beijing Olympics seem to have caused a hiatus in energy imports to the Middle Kingdom. The result was a profound fall in the oil price, one fully warned and forecasted here, signaled by the XLE energy stock index. As the crude oil price fell from the 140s to the 110s, the USDollar was again bolstered. The problem zones like now Georgia in SouthWest Asia also create a global shock toward instability. My view is that a possible second front has opened in the Global Energy War, catching the depleted US Military and lame duck president off guard. Depletion of major oil fields continues. Mexico is now a net importer of crude oil? Gotta check that story which crossed my desk. Nigeria will surely continue as a national thug center, thugs in power, thugs armed at bandits, and thugs cutting deals with them. Crude oil output is not stable, regardless of the region globally. Even the Saudis are playing shell games, talking about output, not being clear as to sour crude versus sweet crude, even as their major Ghawar is in its 8-th inning out of nine.
The USDollar, via its DX index, has filled in a technical thin region between 73.5 and 76.5, and did so fast. Notice how in early June another milder but powerful surge was executed, again when the financial system seemed crippled. What has ensued actually makes possible the next serious decline in coming months. Notice the crystal clear symmetry in the chart, as the rise was as sudden as the fall. That spells instability for an easily occurring correction back down again. The US$ DX index has benefited not from inherent strength, but from relative weakness being realized in the euro. The British pound has also suffered steep declines, as forecasted here in the last several private reports. Even the Canadian Dollar has fallen. The Competing Currency Wars are at work, overtime. The USDollar is not gaining strength at all. It looks incredibly vulnerable. What has changed is that the US$ alternatives have vanished quickly.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...p_image003.jpg

Its moving a lot for the japanese session, it did this last week before the huge move down.

Thank you for the very informative copy pasted article.

Honestly I've never seen a pair go straight down without any retracement, this pair is totally SCREWED. Wow. I thought 50 was a good stop but it keeps going and going and...

After reading several back post, I am curious when Warren will ever admit that the eur is going to start dropping.....just my observation. Don't know how many days it has to decline to be considered in a downtrend?...

Just my curiousity at work?????

Oh well look to see you all around 4630-50 tomorrow....have a good night..

And thanks for the interesting thoughts and advice.. has been a very fun thread to follow these last few days..

Happy and safe trading to all..

Troy...

Without quoting warrens article, and adding another yard to this thread, I noticed the comment inserted in to the chart "reversal engineered to be sure..."

Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't all reversals engineered? I've never yet heard of one referred to as an act of God or nature. Someone somewhere, or a bunch of someones with a lot of scratch decided to do something different for awhile.

If in observing the results of those decisions, I perceive the right thing at the right time and take the right action, the crumbs they drop are my profit. If I'm wrong on any of those points, it's very, very simple, I become liquidity.

"I Am TRADER! Hear Me Roar!!" Not.

No Sir.

I gave up trying to trade more than one pair a long time ago.

When you concentrate on one pair for long enough you can begin to pick up the nuances that I honestly believe give the trader an edge.

I only trade the EURUSD because of the liquidity.

NOOOOOO that reply was a mistake.

Get ready to see a post the size of a novel

Actually it needs to go down to parity at 1.17 before it can truly be considered a downtrend.

I totally agree about the nuances, thanks.

I think in 1.4771 or 1.4648 is reverse to Eu, because with murrey math is bottom trading range to EU

look my picture

what do u think ?

Short squeeze will take it to 1.4950 next week IMO.

This has been one of the jokes on the thread since the EUROs demise.

It will happen but I doubt any time in the near future.

I think we've given up calling bottoms here.

I'm hoping for a nice retrace to .4800 so I can sell it during the EURO session.

CTA's call Friday 'follow through Friday' for a reason.

Ask yourself - What would act as a catalyst to move this pair up on a Friday?

There's a lot of News during the US session tomorrow.

If any of it shows a modicum of US strength don't blink - this pair will be at .4700 or lower.

Its my opinion, because im looking Eu in bottom trading range with murrey level, let see

Stop to long the eur and short it until 1.4400 at least... it is now obvious to every smart trader that this is not going to stop there it's a free fall and you need to get in if you want to make money in my opinion.

Friday is options expiration day, so it might be choppy.