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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #4,841
  • Aug 14, 2008 4:20pm Aug 14, 2008 4:20pm
When should I exit a Trade?

A Profitable Trade should net you (IMO) 80% of the Maximum Profit you had in the Trade.
It works for me.
When I figured this out, the tough part was seeing it Turn and generate fictitional Additional Profits After I had left the Trade.
On average, I look to Gain Approximately 60% of the Move.
20% for confirmation to Enter & 20% from extreme to exit.
check your Charts and tell me you would be disappointed with 60% of the move.
{I understand this conflicts with the Stop & Reverse that has been discussed here. That is Not a Style that suits me.}

A Losing Trade should cost you The Lesser of 0.75% of Account / Believed S/R. (Discretion Advised when both are in close proximity.)

{Havent bust an account in (now) more than 30 years}
  • #4,842
  • Edited 5:31pm Aug 14, 2008 4:32pm | Edited 5:31pm
Quote
I don't think Forex007 is trying to alter the system, I think he is discussing MM and that is something that wasn't really discussed by PC, other than getting to the free trade and let it run, and the question here as I understand it is how to manage the runner


There is so many chances that I could be wrong about this, after all I have never bought Forex007 lunch.

Maybee I went to far.. but the thoughts were flowing so I took the opportunity to address a major issue I have seen so many fall into in this business. You give them a perfectly good system then the system gets changed into something that does not work. Remember the Turtles' experiment? The bet was simple. Could the students could follow a working, poven method?


Please accept my appoligies Forex007.

I do assume the best of you.


Dale
  • #4,843
  • Aug 14, 2008 5:04pm Aug 14, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting Dale
There is so many chances that I could be wrong about this, after all I have never bought Forex007 lunch.

Maybee I went to far.. but the thoughts were flowing so I took the opportunity to address a major issue I have seen so many fall into in this business, you give them a perfectly good system the system gets changed into something that does not work. Remember the Turtle experiment? The bet was simlple. Could the students could follow a working, poven method?


Please accept my appoligies Forex007.

I do assume the best of you.


Dale
I understand exactly what you mean and your point is a valid one. And it's probably why the fail % is so high...
  • #4,844
  • Aug 14, 2008 5:53pm Aug 14, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting Dale
There is so many chances that I could be wrong about this, after all I have never bought Forex007 lunch.

Maybee I went to far.. but the thoughts were flowing so I took the opportunity to address a major issue I have seen so many fall into in this business. You give them a perfectly good system then the system gets changed into something that does not work. Remember the Turtles' experiment? The bet was simple. Could the students could follow a working, poven method?


Please accept my appoligies Forex007.

I do assume the best of you.


Dale
Exactly... I agree with you that tons of these good systems get so complex, yet they still don't give people the desired results so they just change it more. In the end half the time the 'new' system isn't half as good as the first.
  • #4,845
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:18pm Aug 14, 2008 6:18pm
Quoting Dale
There is so many chances that I could be wrong about this, after all I have never bought Forex007 lunch.

Maybee I went to far.. but the thoughts were flowing so I took the opportunity to address a major issue I have seen so many fall into in this business. You give them a perfectly good system then the system gets changed into something that does not work. Remember the Turtles' experiment? The bet was simple. Could the students could follow a working, poven method?


Please accept my appoligies Forex007.

I do assume the best of you.


Dale
No hard feelings, guys! You are a great bunch of people here (even my wife envies me a bit )

I saw your point, Dale. I DID try to "improve" DIBS in the past (didn't work well ). I now (mostly) stick to the basic rules...

NAL's comment was valid too - I did indeed simply want to discuss a better MM approach to DIBS. E.g. Jaroo is experimenting with stop-reverse - it's not part of the "original" system, but works (for some people, in some cases).

P.S. I am thinking of changing my "identity" here - Forex007 was chosen as a random "quick thought" as I didn't know what FF was about (and whether I would be around for long). But this is definitely off the topic
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,846
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:25pm Aug 14, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting Bemac
When should I exit a Trade?

A Profitable Trade should net you (IMO) 80% of the Maximum Profit you had in the Trade.
It works for me.
When I figured this out, the tough part was seeing it Turn and generate fictitional Additional Profits After I had left the Trade.
On average, I look to Gain Approximately 60% of the Move.
20% for confirmation to Enter & 20% from extreme to exit.
check your Charts and tell me you would be disappointed with 60% of the move.
{I understand this conflicts with the Stop & Reverse that has been discussed here. That is Not a Style that suits me.}

A Losing Trade should cost you The Lesser of 0.75% of Account / Believed S/R. (Discretion Advised when both are in close proximity.)

{Havent bust an account in (now) more than 30 years}
Bemac, getting 60% of the move would be GREAT. In fact, getting even 1% of the move is fantastic... IF I know in advance the move is in my direction (I can simply open a HUGE position and turn that 1% into a fat profit).

The problem is - we never know whether the move will take place, and if it does, how long will it last. So, the question is - what is 60% of an unknown entity?..
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,847
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:44pm Aug 14, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting Forex007
Bemac, getting 60% of the move would be GREAT. In fact, getting even 1% of the move is fantastic... IF I know in advance the move is in my direction (I can simply open a HUGE position and turn that 1% into a fat profit).

The problem is - we never know whether the move will take place, and if it does, how long will it last. So, the question is - what is 60% of an unknown entity?..
The Entry {first 20% unknown} is the tough part. What does it take to convince you that a New Move is in place.

The Exit is easy.
Max Profit - (Max Profit * 0.2 = TrStp) = Exit;
  • #4,848
  • Aug 14, 2008 6:58pm Aug 14, 2008 6:58pm
Quoting Bemac
The Entry {first 20% unknown} is the tough part. What does it take to convince you that a New Move is in place.

The Exit is easy.
Max Profit - (Max Profit * 0.2 = TrStp) = Exit;
OK, and what is "Max Profit"?.. Am I that dumb? Or my PhD was in the wrong subject?..
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,849
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:02pm Aug 14, 2008 7:02pm
Is it just my impression or is DIBS indeed (by pure virtue of it) more profitable than other PAs (e.g. PBs)?

Risk is smaller (due to difference in size between IBs and other PA, e.g. PB) - that means larger lots too. You have a chance to "change your mind" - via Jaroo's stop-n-reverse approach. Daily moves are pretty good - up to 100+ pips. And you know sooner whether it worked or not (unlike Daily PBs) - one can sleep better at night

And you can add on the next day (via DIBS again) if the trend continues...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,850
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:04pm Aug 14, 2008 7:04pm
I'm sure I missed this somewhere along the line, but how many bars do you consider a signal valid for?
  • #4,851
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:15pm Aug 14, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting Mombone
I'm sure I missed this somewhere along the line, but how many bars do you consider a signal valid for?
See (Jaroo's) post 4813.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #4,852
  • Aug 14, 2008 7:25pm Aug 14, 2008 7:25pm
Thanks 007
Mombone
  • #4,853
  • Edited 7:35pm Aug 14, 2008 7:30pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting Forex007
OK, and what is "Max Profit"?.. Am I that dumb? Or my PhD was in the wrong subject?..
Nah.. You're probably just too close to the blackboard.

Max Profit = ... {Probably should have stated this as "Max OPEN Profit". Sorry for the confusion.}
If you are Long,
The Highest it has been since your Entry.

80% OF Max Profit =
The Highest it has been since your EntryPrice - ((The Highest it has been since your EntryPrice - Your EntryPrice)* O.2)

I attempt to avoid predicting "Fog on the Floor" & as well as "Smoke on the Ceiling".

hth
Bill
  • #4,854
  • Edited Aug 15, 2008 6:59am Aug 14, 2008 8:30pm | Edited Aug 15, 2008 6:59am
An interesting exercise.

Looking over many of my successful DIBS trades (and not so successful DIBS trades) if the next bar breaks the vaild DIBS IB signal it had a high chance of at least going to a free trade and/or profitability.

Those that study Price Action understand that when a Pin Bar, DBLHC, DBHLC, BUOB, etc., break its signal on the next bar it is a good sign that Price is doing what it suppose to do. lol.

Now, I understand that many IB's ranges can be very small which makes for some breaks on both sides and small IBs are a good thing. But on good medium, small IB (don't ask me to define that) things look pretty good on a next bar break.

Check your past charts and tell what you think.


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,855
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:08am Aug 15, 2008 12:08am
This is my first post on this thread and have been following it and catching up on all the posts and I was just wondering what everyone's preferable indicator is? Jaroo Indicator, DIBS_trigger_line, etc...

Pred
  • #4,856
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:18am Aug 15, 2008 12:18am
Quoting Predator38
This is my first post on this thread and have been following it and catching up on all the posts and I was just wondering what everyone's preferable indicator is? Jaroo Indicator, DIBS_trigger_line, etc...

Pred
Price.

Sorry. Not trying to be cute. Jarroo " indicator" and DIBS_tigger_line are not indicators they are indentifiers.

An indicator is a mechanism that would show ("indicate") direction. And the best one is : Price itself.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #4,857
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:23am Aug 15, 2008 12:23am
Quoting jarroo
Price.
lol agreed, but I would like to be able to monitor many pairs and possibly sleep while the good trading hours are occuring, then when a signal for IB goes off, my blaring loud speakers will wake me up

having a lot of respect for you jarroo from reading all your posts, have you tried any of those?

Thanks!

Pred
  • #4,858
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:30am Aug 15, 2008 12:30am
Quote
The Highest it has been since your Entry.
Hello Bemac

Do you check every tick or per bar.




Congratulations on never blowing out an account, that speaks volumes.

Best regards


Dale
  • #4,859
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:31am Aug 15, 2008 12:31am
for those who like to take DIBS trades on JPY pairs during the Asian session, check out UJ and GJ. Both slowly inching up. GJ reversing off the weekly 50fib and just shy of breaking yesterday's daily IB high UJ powering off the daily pinbar.
  • #4,860
  • Aug 15, 2008 12:48am Aug 15, 2008 12:48am
Quoting jarroo
An interesting exercise.

Looking over many of my successful DIBS trades (and not so successful DIBS trades) if the next bar breaks the vaild DIBS IB signal it had a high chance of at least going to a free trade and/or profitability.

Those that study Price Action understand that when a Pin Bar, DBLHC, DBHLC, BUOB, etc., break its signal on the next bar it a good sign that Price is doing what it suppose to do. lol.

Now, I understand that many IB's ranges can be very small which makes for some breaks on both sides and small IBs are a good thing. But on good medium, small IB (don't ask me to define that) things look pretty good on a next bar break.

Check your past charts and tell what you think.


Jim
I had similar impression too (but nothing than an impression as I didn't do detailed backtesting to check this behavior).

Jaroo, are you familiar with this product - http://www.forextester.com ? I was told it's great for discretionary backtesting as it replays the market back tick by tick (similar to MT4, but in a more intuitive way).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
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