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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #61
  • Aug 8, 2008 6:19am Aug 8, 2008 6:19am
Quoting DaBuschi
I did open my position at the break of 1.5141 (former low) @ 1.5140, took profit @ 1.5120 for half the position and moved the SL to BE

Actually did that twice. Earlier today at the break of 1.5193 (low from 3:15 CET last night) opened a position @ 1.5191, took profit after 20 pips @ 1.5171 for half the position, second half running free. Stops for the two remaining positions is 1.5140 right now.

Reasons for both trades:

Below the Pivot Point - so looking for shorts only, entries right below psych levels with enough room to the next resistance (pivot / psych level)

If you look at the chart, I did the same yesterday @ 2:30 pm CET, but took profit for both positions. First after 20 pips, second after 40. Looking back, would have been better to let the second half run, as I did today. Would have.....could have......should have. I didnīt, so only thing I can do, is try to learn from that.
Way to go, mate. It wasn't until after I'd posted that I realized that maybe a more conservative entry would have been at the previous low (1.5140 here), but you spotted that, no bother.
Can't argue with your reasons for trading. Simple and to the point. The less clutter, the better!

Cheers
  • #62
  • Aug 8, 2008 8:05am Aug 8, 2008 8:05am
Eur/usd made it down to the S3 line, with the candle shadow reaching a little further down to breach the .50 psych line. Only 4 pips between them, so this forms quite a strong confluence. To a certain extent, this confluence is further strengthened by the fib at 1.5041. As I type this, a strong bullish candle is taking shape, but I'm not sure if this a reversal because it doesn't look like a very convincing bullish reversal signal. However, because price is well under the Main pivot point, bullish moves are for observation only (unless counter-trend trading turns you on!!).
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  • #63
  • Aug 11, 2008 4:11am Aug 11, 2008 4:11am
This could be an opportunity to go short. Higher lows as price edges towards a psych level, with, at present, a bearish engulfing candle showing. Worth keeping an eye on.
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  • #64
  • Aug 11, 2008 4:26am Aug 11, 2008 4:26am
Quoting eyevoltage
This could be an opportunity to go short. Higher lows as price edges towards a psych level, with, at present, a bearish engulfing candle showing. Worth keeping an eye on.
For short is risk to high.
Many Indicators are bullish.


http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/4430/23zp9.gif
  • #65
  • Edited 5:07am Aug 11, 2008 4:27am | Edited 5:07am
Cable - sell @ 1.9231

Let's see how it goes.

Edit: Out @ 1.9211 for 20 pips.
  • #66
  • Aug 11, 2008 4:33am Aug 11, 2008 4:33am
Quoting zeuzera
For short is risk to high.
Many Indicators are bullish.

This system does NOT use any indicator.
Donīt live for working, but work for living.
  • #67
  • Aug 11, 2008 5:09am Aug 11, 2008 5:09am
Nice trade ev.
The reason for your exit was the s/r-level, i assume ?
Donīt live for working, but work for living.
  • #68
  • Edited 5:18am Aug 11, 2008 5:16am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting matsf
Nice trade ev.
The reason for your exit was the s/r-level, i assume ?
I thought about going for the .00 psych point, but then I thought that a TP of 20 pips would be more realistic, taking into account the previous highs at that level.

A nice round figure!
  • #69
  • Aug 11, 2008 5:23am Aug 11, 2008 5:23am
Alright.

Forgot the picture...
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 19 KB
Donīt live for working, but work for living.
  • #70
  • Aug 11, 2008 5:45am Aug 11, 2008 5:45am
I was tempted to go for eurusd instead of cable, but obviously, my decision hung on the fact that cable was reversing at a psych point (.50), and eurusd seemed to be hung up in nowhere land.

This will teach me to take more notice of acumen's methods. As far as I know, he uses .20 and .80 psych points as well as the .00 and .50 ones. So if you look at eurusd, you'll see a bearish engulfing candle forming at the .80 line!! Taking that trade would have netted around 50+ pips!

Oh well............
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  • #71
  • Aug 13, 2008 3:25am Aug 13, 2008 3:25am
I'm not in this trade as I came across it a little late, but I thought I'd post it purely and simple because of the entry signals.

Price peaks on the 38.2 fib with an upside down hammer/shooting star type of candle. (Sometimes not sure HOW to describe this sort of candle, but it's usually a very good reversal indicator!). Next, we see a bearish engulfing candle straddling the 38.2 fib, strengthening the reversal, and my entry would have been as price crossed the Main Pivot line.

Still heading south as I type, and it'll be interesting to see whether or not it hits the 0.0 fib line.
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  • #72
  • Edited 4:11am Aug 13, 2008 4:06am | Edited 4:11am
This is the eur/usd at around the same time........

This time, a bearish engulfing candle straddling the R1/0.0 fib confluence, then price goes into free-fall all the way down to the 38.2 fib line (and, at the same time, reaching down a little and touching the .00 psych-line, which isn't shown on this chart).

I just love this method. Clean and simple.
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  • #73
  • Edited 7:26am Aug 13, 2008 6:22am | Edited 7:26am
Again, eur/usd provides a nice example of a reversal signal right on a fib line. I'm not sure if we can call this a "hammer" candle, as it has a small upper shadow, so it's probably a spinning-top. Either way, it's looking very bullish, and is followed by another strong bullish candle. Seeing as price is BELOW the Pivot Point, we'll have to wait until it crosses the PP before entering any likely looking move upwards.

Edit: Entered trade @ 1.4898 (Should really have waited for price to breach the .00 psych level)
Exited trade @ 1.4914 for +16 pips. (15 pips or over is VERY acceptable!)
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  • #74
  • Aug 13, 2008 11:46am Aug 13, 2008 11:46am
Hey eyevoltage
good to see you here.
Let me do some catching up on this thread and hope to learn from you soon

Houston
Happy Trading! Houston
  • #75
  • Aug 13, 2008 1:27pm Aug 13, 2008 1:27pm
Quoting houstonn
Hey eyevoltage
good to see you here.
Let me do some catching up on this thread and hope to learn from you soon

Houston
Nice to see you too, mate. I was getting a bit lonely on here!

This method rocks, houstonn. Well worth studying.

Cheers for now
  • #76
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:32pm Aug 13, 2008 4:32pm
Hello EyeVoltage and others,

My name is Ed (the SpecialEd is a sarcastic knickname from an old friend). I've been trading live for about 3 months and literally got hammered by the market events of last Friday. I've been hanging out on the EUR/USD thread, where I met Acumen and began to study his lovely, simple method. Those two events led me to re-group, take a break from trading for a few days and re-apply myself to study. My initial research today led me to this thread.

EV (if I may), you seem to have really taken to Acumen's method. I really appreciate the clarity of your postings and charts. Very understandable and educational.

If no one objects, I would like to subscribe to this thread and become a student. I am semi-retired, and seriously committed to learning Forex trading. I have enjoyed it immensely thus far.

Getting started. Thanks for all that I've read thus far.
Ed in Virginia, USA
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #77
  • Aug 13, 2008 4:51pm Aug 13, 2008 4:51pm
Quoting eyevoltage
This could be an opportunity to go short. Higher lows as price edges towards a psych level, with, at present, a bearish engulfing candle showing. Worth keeping an eye on.
EV, I have not studied the various candle formations much, but it appears that you have. Would you please explain how to identify a "bearish engulfing" candle? Also, assuming it is a pretty significant item, what significance do you place in it? Perhaps a start of a big downward motion?

Lastly, what source(s) did you use to learn about candlesticks? I did find one website, www.candlesticker.com.

I hope you don't mind the catch-up questions. I promise to "give back" as I become more adept in the method.

Ed in Virginia
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #78
  • Aug 13, 2008 6:37pm Aug 13, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting SpecialEd
EV, I have not studied the various candle formations much, but it appears that you have. Would you please explain how to identify a "bearish engulfing" candle? Also, assuming it is a pretty significant item, what significance do you place in it? Perhaps a start of a big downward motion?

Lastly, what source(s) did you use to learn about candlesticks? I did find one website, www.candlesticker.com.

I hope you don't mind the catch-up questions. I promise to "give back" as I become more adept in the method.

Ed in Virginia
First of all, great user-name!
Secondly, many thanks for your kind comments, mate. Always happy to be of assistance. I've lost count of the number of good people on FF who have unselfishly helped me along.

Regarding candlesticks. Ed, I wouldn't know where to begin explaining the principle behind candlesticks. Honestly, it would benefit you more to google something like "trading candlesticks", and you will be literally overloaded with information!

A good place to start would probably be candlestickforum.com, which I've found to be very informative. It describes all the major candlestick patterns, and the psychology behind them, with actual chart examples. But, as I say, do a search and you can't go wrong.

IMHO, to fully understand acumen's method, a working knowledge of the various candlestick signals is essential, mate. As price approaches a pivot line, or a fib line, the candles will often tell you whether or not there's a probability of a reversal in the offing. Study them, get to know them, get plenty of chart time in looking for examples, and it'll benefit you enormously. For me, I can't imagine trying to read a chart without candlesticks, purely and simply because they're so visual, and tell you so much.

Hey, that's enough from me, mate. It's time I was hitting the sack!
Stick with it, mate.......me and acumen will see you right!
Cheers
  • #79
  • Aug 13, 2008 6:47pm Aug 13, 2008 6:47pm
Great thread all.
Ed,
You may find this site very helpful on candlesticks.
http://www.fxwords.com/j/japanese-candlesticks.html
And if you want to do even more reading, you can read one of Steve Nison's books on candlesticks.
  • #80
  • Aug 13, 2008 7:27pm Aug 13, 2008 7:27pm
EV, thanks to both you and GreyWolf for the reference sites. Will add them to my list to research over the coming days. GreyWolf, I too am in Jacko's group (#2). Pretty new at that also, but I liked his simple approach to trend trading, which IMO coincides with Acumen's approach rather nicely.

Best to you both. I look forward to sharing and prospering together.
Ed in Virginia
Up or down, gimme a ticket
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