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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,441
  • Jul 21, 2008 3:21pm Jul 21, 2008 3:21pm
Quoting TraderZer0
I think that the future is unknowable mchael, therefore the only enduring edge I'm likely to have as a trader is to deliberately and carefully manage my risk whilst only trading the very high probability setups - that means trading with the trend: the highest probability trade of all. It's not sexy, it doesn't give me bragging rights for picking market tops and bottoms, but it works!
Nothing wrong with going with a trend, but the most successful traders/investors (the few at the very top - think W. Buffett) are those who had a contrarian vision based on their analysis and stuck with it.
  • #2,442
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:26am Aug 4, 2008 11:26am
my eagle eye spots a double top on EURAUD with a long way to fall....
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #2,443
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:30am Aug 4, 2008 11:30am
there's also an AUDCAD H1 UTL break to the upside....
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #2,444
  • Aug 12, 2008 2:58pm Aug 12, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Why are so many fighting the trend here? 20-year breakout + hawkish RBA + USD selling off everywhere else = BUY not short!
I fight the trend because I would rather deal with 2 months of negative interest and be rewarded with over 1000 pips for a trade, then to enter at the top of a trend earn maybe 1 or 200 pips for the trade and an additional 20 pips for interest

I hope your long positions are looking good, or did you exit them? If you did I'm not surprised.
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #2,445
  • Aug 12, 2008 3:15pm Aug 12, 2008 3:15pm
Quoting pearsonfx
I fight the trend because I would rather deal with 2 months of negative interest and be rewarded with over 1000 pips for a trade, then to enter at the top of a trend earn maybe 1 or 200 pips for the trade and an additional 20 pips for interest

I hope your long positions are looking good, or did you exit them? If you did I'm not surprised.
Congrats on the short trade.

Yes, your assumption is correct, my positions have in fact changed since the post you quoted from 3 months ago!

The 12-month TL break was as golden of a sell/short signal as we'll ever get in this game.
http://i33.tinypic.com/2rz6i6a.gif
  • #2,446
  • Aug 12, 2008 4:01pm Aug 12, 2008 4:01pm
@KGB. How are you bud?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,447
  • Aug 12, 2008 6:01pm Aug 12, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting DutchTrader
@KGB. How are you bud?
Dutch buddy how ya doing? I've been having a good summer so far here in the city. Are you still in town? Speaking of cities, one of my good friends just landed a trading job in Amsterdam, so I look forward to visiting the Netherlands as often as I can.

Markets have been trending nicely since the USD started its run. U/J flirting with the '78 trendline again, perhaps we can hold off on our Mad Max plans for the time being.
  • #2,448
  • Aug 12, 2008 6:07pm Aug 12, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Dutch buddy how ya doing? I've been having a good summer so far here in the city. Are you still in town? Speaking of cities, one of my good friends just landed a trading job in Amsterdam, so I look forward to visiting the Netherlands as often as I can.

Markets have been trending nicely since the USD started its run. U/J flirting with the '78 trendline again, perhaps we can hold off on our Mad Max plans for the time being.
I only posted to tell you I put the dune buggy on Ebay. Coupla offers from some Europeans
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,449
  • Aug 12, 2008 6:13pm Aug 12, 2008 6:13pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I only posted to tell you I put the dune buggy on Ebay. Coupla offers from some Europeans
Good job!
  • #2,450
  • Aug 13, 2008 6:25pm Aug 13, 2008 6:25pm
Anyone ready to start dipping their toes long in AU yet? Looks like it might be due for a bounce here... I know the $ has been off the hook lately but with oil and gold possibly finding some support Aussie should do better against USD than say, pound sterling.
  • #2,451
  • Aug 14, 2008 4:38am Aug 14, 2008 4:38am
dont get too excited - it's a short consolidation as everyone was spooked at the dramatic drop. Interest rates are gonna come down - the trend down is starting to play out.
  • #2,452
  • Oct 3, 2008 10:08pm Oct 3, 2008 10:08pm
Quoting 30XTCi
scyang, trying to pick tops and bottoms can really hurt. Most cycles end with false tops or false bottoms, in this case it could be said that from 0.9538 to 0.9558 is such a sign. Based on that, and the fact that the Aussie has just finished a spectacular vertical ascent, I have a target next week of 0.9360 Low before gaining to 0.9455. Trade at your own risk. I would not personaly take these trades, I prefer to let the dust settle for a couple of days. My long term target is 0.7533 around August 2010.

Roy
BUMP!!

The above was posted 18 May this year, page 152.

I made a statement then that the Aussie was doomed.

My crude "home made" Gann analysis projected price to reach the above (in bold) 2 years from now. How things can change. My original Trajectory can be seen on the chart below. I believe that this is where price had to go to remain balanced. Price is now touching that line. As you can see because of the slope, it's 200 pips higher than the original target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie long term.GIF Size: 47 KB
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #2,453
  • Oct 5, 2008 10:55pm Oct 5, 2008 10:55pm
Another day, another 3.6% slam for AUD/JPY. My hats off to anyone trading this with significant leverage. Going to be an exciting week with what we've seen in the first 6 hours of it.
  • #2,454
  • Oct 5, 2008 11:22pm Oct 5, 2008 11:22pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Another day, another 3.6% slam for AUD/JPY
Make that 5%, wow.
  • #2,455
  • Oct 6, 2008 12:33am Oct 6, 2008 12:33am
G/J just butchered a 30 year TL. If it breaks the Bull TL From '95 to '00 to (now), we might see 150 levels. The carry trade might finally be cheap again!
  • #2,456
  • Oct 6, 2008 1:10am Oct 6, 2008 1:10am
Quoting fxterrapin
G/J just butchered a 30 year TL. If it breaks the Bull TL From '95 to '00 to (now), we might see 150 levels. The carry trade might finally be cheap again!
Ah yes, the '95 TL. U/J already made mincemeat out of that one. I made the comment to DutchTrader a year ago that if the '95 TL broke, it would foretell an upcoming financial apocalypse. Although that was intended to be sarcastic, the past month's global market action seems to headed quickly in that direction!
  • #2,457
  • Oct 6, 2008 8:37am Oct 6, 2008 8:37am
Quoting Trader KGB
Ah yes, the '95 TL. U/J already made mincemeat out of that one. I made the comment to DutchTrader a year ago that if the '95 TL broke, it would foretell an upcoming financial apocalypse. Although that was intended to be sarcastic, the past month's global market action seems to headed quickly in that direction!
Just to be safe, I ordered one with the pips I made.


http://www.diecastauto.com/catalog/images/madmax.jpg
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,458
  • Oct 6, 2008 9:25am Oct 6, 2008 9:25am
OH man...

hope this is the bottom
  • #2,459
  • Oct 6, 2008 10:53am Oct 6, 2008 10:53am
Quoting Trader KGB
Make that 5%, wow.
Make that 14%! Unbelievable! I really have to stop jinxing this poor pair..
  • #2,460
  • Oct 6, 2008 10:54am Oct 6, 2008 10:54am
Quoting DutchTrader
Just to be safe, I ordered one with the pips I made.
Fantastic my friend! Does it run on methane?
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