EURUSD

That's the best one of the day ..roflmao

triple post LoL..
im sorry.. i have problem with my internet connection..

The French never let me down...

French industrial output slipped further into negative territory in June against expectations of a mild recovery. In annualized terms, French industrial production fell 1.6%, deepening the 1.8% decline seen in May which had been revised down from -1.2%.

Least we not forget about Thursdays GDP reading... which won't be good.

Continuing weakening abroad will continue to keep any real bull retrace contained.

Trichet has a history of telegraphing his next move... and traders are truly appreciative.

Slack to the newbie.

http://www.dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx

Snippet:

And Now... Today's Pfennig!

Central bank intervention is the reason...

Good day... I know most of you opened the Pfennig up this morning hoping to get a blast of Chuck's witty writing style. Well the airlines arranged for Chuck to stay in San Francisco a little longer, so you'll have to wait another day. The currency markets continued to get hammered by the US$ on Friday with the dollar index climbing all the way back above 76, a level we haven't seen since mid February. The dollar did sell off a bit in early European trading, but it has started to climb again as I write.

Several readers sent me an excellent opinion piece by James Turk which appeared on GoldMoney's website. Mr. Turk points to central bank intervention as a major reason for the recent dollar strength. The article agrees with what I was saying last week; that the dollar has no fundamental reason to be rallying. The reports and news out of the US have not been favorable to the greenback, and the twin deficits in the US continue to soar out of control. I mentioned that the recent moves of the dollar smacked of intervention, as the dollar only wanted to move in one direction, ignoring any data which would typically send it back down. Turk points to some data which backs up this intervention theory:

"When central banks intervene in the currency markets, they exchange their currency for dollars. Central banks then use the dollars they acquire to buy US government debt instruments so that they can earn interest on their money. The debt instruments central banks acquire are held in custody for them at the Federal Reserve, which reports this amount weekly.

On July 16, 2008 (the closest date of the weekly reports to the July 15th low in the Dollar Index), the Federal Reserve reported holding $2,349 million of US government paper in custody for central banks. In its report released today, this amount had grown over the past three weeks to $2,401 million, a 38.4% annual rate of growth. To put this phenomenally high growth rate into perspective, for the twelve months ending this past July 16th, assets in the Federal Reserve's custody account grew by 17.3%, which is less than one-half the growth rate experienced over the past three weeks.
So central banks were accumulating dollars over the past three weeks at a rate far above what one would expect as a result of the US trade deficit. The logical conclusion is that they were intervening in currency markets. They were buying dollars for the purpose of propping it up, to keep the dollar from falling off the edge of the cliff.

You can read James Turk's entire article at http://www.goldmoney.com/en/commentary.php#current. He makes a convincing argument. As Chuck and I have pointed out in the past, intervention (even cooperative central bank intervention) can only impact the markets for the short term. Economic fundamentals will eventually win out, so the central banks have only bought themselves a little time. Unless the economic data in the US does an about face (and I don't expect it to), the US dollar will remain in its long term downward trend.

Friday saw the release of additional US data which would usually have moved the dollar lower, but not in this dollar bull environment. US non-farm productivity slowed, increasing at a 2.2% pace vs. last months 2.6% rate. Unit labor costs came in just under expectations, and wholesale inventories rose by almost 2 times the expected rate. This increase in wholesale inventories is somewhat telling, as companies were unable to sell all of the goods which they were producing. Could US consumers finally be slowing their spending? If so, it would mean an even more dramatic drop in GDP for the last half of 2008.

This week will bring a number of big economic reports here in the US, non of which are expected to be dollar friendly. Tomorrow we will get the Trade balance which is expected to have ballooned back above 60 billion in June. We will also see the monthly budget statement and ABC consumer confidence. Wednesday will bring us the Import price index in the US along with advance retail sales and business inventories. July Consumer Prices in the US lead off the reports on Thursday, followed by the weekly jobless claims. And we will close out the week with the empire manufacturing numbers, TIC flows, industrial production, and Chuck's favorite, the capacity utilization numbers for July. If the reports come in where expected, the dollar bulls may start running for the hills.

Bloomberg : today moves depend on day traders

I'm on the list now

guest since Nov 2006, member since yesterday

nice to join here

welcome bro

The best on the net.

welcome mate

Well now that options have expired we have a better idea of where this is headed...

down we go ?

The trend is definitely down, unless some miracle happens...

"The 4 percent surge against the single European currency this month was enough to prompt Bank of America Corp. to tell its customers to exit trades betting on more gains."

That's what I like to see. Those BOA currency strategists are on the ball.

More from those Barclay guys... (Try to guess what position these companies are overweight in?)

"Barclays Plc in London and New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. said trading patterns suggest the dollar's 5.1 percent gain in the past three weeks measured by an index of six major trading partners can't be sustained."

All these comments by respected 'analysts' are so transparent.

Even the pro-dollar ones.

They get an email before crafting these releases detailing the companies current position... which surely has little influence on their analysis.

Here's the article if you want to read this nonsense.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jF0&refer=home

I'm guessing we bounce around until the next rumor.

The trend is surely South but we are really due for some consolidation.

Just some random thoughts.

Thanks indotrader, acumen, bksujal

the trend is short but she need to touch ema55 before going down,
just my opinion

my system told me to go long 1.5009 and I did
TP 24 1.5033
sl 21 1.4988

who here think we will see 1.5333 before 1.49255?...

The bulls fighting to keep this dog above .5.

My system - if it looses the winning rate might go down to 72,05 % from 72,06 %

so no big deal for me