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  • #19,041
  • Aug 10, 2008 12:54pm Aug 10, 2008 12:54pm
Hello,
I usually post @ Cable upDate thread 90% of the time but since I trade 8 diference pairs including this one, I found a pattern in EUR/USD called Bump-and-Run Reversal(BARR) and it is in progress right now.

With a break out of the Double Top @ 4H TF (chart bellow) the BARR is very posibble. I think that the EUR economic is getting in bad shape and for the rest of this year the down trend will dominate.


Since EUR and GBP are cousins, Here is a 4H TF GBP/USD chart very similar break out as EUR/USD. ---> #81228

My personal opinion is the both are going down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: (Carrera) EUR-USD BARR.png Size: 118 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: (Carrera) Double Top 4H TF Break Out EUR-USD.png Size: 55 KB
  • #19,042
  • Aug 10, 2008 1:04pm Aug 10, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting Warren Forex
With Respect I will make the effort to explain Forex to you in real terms.

Forex is about the following;

It is a marketplace set up for corporations doing business all over the world and as well world Governments and associated entities to do business by buying and selling money.

When this marketplace was opened up to everyone with no exceptions. The one exception is if you have no money just demo trade. I guess anyone with $1000 US Dollars can trade and have an opinion on Forex.

Charts are 100% known to only represent Human Pyschology at that exact moment. The moment being now. When Trichet spoke at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday last he changed the Pyschology through his words.

PERCEPTION changed not REALITY.

The Central Banks then used this as a COVER for their actions of INTERVENTION.

The Rules Of Engagement Must Be Understood To Have A Chance To Earn A Living Trading Forex.

If anyone has serious issues of immaturity they are guaranteed to be losers in Forex. In fact it is accepted fact that 95% of ALL Forex traders lose their money. That includes the largest ones as well.

You cannot succeed trading FX only using charts. You cannot succeed only using fundamentals.

You need to understand Money Management ! You need to be mature enough to deal with your fears, your bias, your greed and last but not least, your EGO ...

You cannot trade FX without these character traits affecting your FX trading.

You need to understand Politics, Economics, Human Nature.

50% at least of the information that you read is false.

At the least it is misleading. If you do not understand that then how can you have the correct data to make the right decision ?

You cannot.

The best example in recent days is the recent Pending Home Sales Number released last week.

The Number was reported by CNBC as being positive. The market took it as positive BUT it was not !

Why not ? There has been a great increase in foreclosures and it continues to get worse by the day.

Therefore there is more good bargains coming on the market.

Those still with MONEY buy these bargains and of course the number of Pending Home Sales goes up. Are things better ? Of course not !

Welcome To The Fantasy World and trust me or not it will come to a bad end for the US economy. I tried so hard to encourage posters to think for themselves at the very least. Go to WWW.JSMINESET.COM to read the facts from experts 100 times more knowledgeable than I.

The reason that most lose in Forex is that they think they know but in reality they do not.

How many hours of this day have I taken to deal with various issues here ?

Too many. I am going to give myself a break and go for a swim and a sauna.

Can you not see the useless nature of most of the posts about me ?

I can only say in closing I am a proven successful currency trader managing substantial funds for my clients and shareholders.

I do not need approval or confirmation of my skills. I hope you will focus on the positive and learn how to trade Forex as a Winner !!!

As I have said before, FTP is the way to go along with all the other needed skills of Forex Trading. Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception

Add to that Money Management and A Mature Stable Knowledgeable FX Trader. You must INVEST your time to learn.

I started learning September 2003 and I only demo traded until the month of March 2006. In the 2 1/2 years of Real FX Trading I have learned a lot. I learn everyday. I learned last week and I will continue to learn and succeed.

Making Money is Hard Work and if you do not do it right you will lose.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. My FX trading is about RESULTS and not opinions.


If I do not get results I do Not have Clients and If I do Not Perform I make No Money.

I hope the time that I just gave you from my life helped you understand the world of Forex trading.

If not it was still worth it to at least try since that is the only way of Life I know.

Quiiters NEVER Win and Winners Never Quit ...

I am A Winner and I NEVER GIVE UP or GIVE in to unfairness ot injustice.

Believe it or NOT ... This Attitude is 100% Relative to the Topic of Currency Trading and Success !!!

I wish you the best in your Forex trading and your life. Have A Great Sunday.

I am off to enjoy some of my life before the Pressure and Fun of FX trading starts for me today at 5:15 PM


Bruce
Especially when you are scalping a million dollar fund and losing the better part of it aka, since 8.30 EST Thursday.......

But of course we shouldn't remind you of that should we, because you are in essence a scalper nothing more and nothing less.

This is the reason why you open yourself up to negative thoughts and comments, because you can never remember what you previously wrote.

Go and play your mickey mouse demo platform, but don't keep on telling everyone what a big man you are.

That is why you open yourself up to the negative comments.

Truth tellers never have to remember anything.

Have a jolly fun week trading.
  • #19,043
  • Aug 10, 2008 1:37pm Aug 10, 2008 1:37pm
"In fact it is accepted fact that 95% of ALL Forex traders lose their money."

Firstly - it's not a fact.

There's no way to verify this number's accuracy.

Where did that number come?

Did someone call all of the brokers that deal with FX accounts and gather their statistics?

Did the data come from one or two brokers and this is a random sampling?

Is a trader someone who opens an account - buys the EURO last week and is sent packing after a margin call a trader or ill informed tool?

Is there a grace period to eliminate these individuals?

Say - six months.

How many traders fail after lasting six months?

If I lose an account, open a new one and start winning am I counted on the losers column or winners?

If you have some data to validate this number I'd love to see it?
  • #19,044
  • Aug 10, 2008 2:01pm Aug 10, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting acumen
"In fact it is accepted fact that 95% of ALL Forex traders lose their money."

Firstly - it's not a fact.

There's no way to verify this number's accuracy.

Where did that number come?

Did someone call all of the brokers that deal with FX accounts and gather their statistics?

Did the data come from one or two brokers and this is a random sampling?

Is a trader someone who opens an account - buys the EURO last week and is sent packing after a margin call a trader or ill informed tool?

Is there a grace period to eliminate these individuals?

Say - six months.

How many traders fail after lasting six months?

If I lose an account, open a new one and start winning am I counted on the losers column or winners?

If you have some data to validate this number I'd love to see it?
It took 9 months for me to loose 80.000DM back in 1997
20.000 were left when I stopped trading. Thats what I call bankrupt. I never wanted to do a single trade anymore.

I could stand it only 1 week and began daytrading.Took 4 years to xxfold ( double digits ) the 20K left.
Stopped trading because I payed 54% taxes on my results and my normal income over the years.
But things changed in Germany:
In 2009 you will pay only 25% "Abgeltungssteuer" and 2%
"Solidaritätszuschlag" makes a total of 27% taxes on these earnings..
TAX paradise for me
That's why I joined the forex arena 18 months ago.
Still have my money and am up about 20 percent
Hope we all make some money here.
  • #19,045
  • Aug 10, 2008 2:05pm Aug 10, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting acumen
"In fact it is accepted fact that 95% of ALL Forex traders lose their money."

Firstly - it's not a fact.

There's no way to verify this number's accuracy.

Where did that number come?

Did someone call all of the brokers that deal with FX accounts and gather their statistics?

Did the data come from one or two brokers and this is a random sampling?

Is a trader someone who opens an account - buys the EURO last week and is sent packing after a margin call a trader or ill informed tool?

Is there a grace period to eliminate these individuals?

Say - six months.

How many traders fail after lasting six months?

If I lose an account, open a new one and start winning am I counted on the losers column or winners?

If you have some data to validate this number I'd love to see it?
There was a website I read on this topic. Unfortunately I don't remember where it was.

The ratio is something like:

95 % of all newbies blow their first account within 30 days
85 % blow their second account within 3 months
60 % blow their third account within 9 months

The final tally was that there are only 5 percent of the original players still playing ....... probably by then their fifth or sixth account.

The estimate is that 95 % fail and only 5 percent get to the stage where they are actually continuously making an income.

Therefore Forex is definitely a learning by doing profession, which can only be learned by the individual, because in the end it is yourself against everyone else.

It takes a very long time to

1. devise a reasonably good strategy which continuously works and

2. Stick to it like glue, even when you are 50 percent down.

The Law of the game is STRATEGY, DEDICATION, PATIENCE and that takes a long long time to learn , because it is your inner self that loses the game in the end.
  • #19,046
  • Aug 10, 2008 2:15pm Aug 10, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting Two percent
It takes a very long time to

1. devise a reasonably good strategy which continuously works and

2. Stick to it like glue, even when you are 50 percent down.
1. = YES

2. = NO - except you developed that strategie on your own and know exactly what you are doing.. 25% and I would take my system out of the market and analyze some more
  • #19,047
  • Aug 10, 2008 2:39pm Aug 10, 2008 2:39pm
I don't care how big and successful forex trader you are as this is not going to help me in my trading.
Your money is yours and my money is mine.
I will learn it by myself. I don't need anyone's help or mentor.
I think some people in this forum trying to get some people to make money by teaching Forex Trading.
Thank you very much. I don't need your help.
Keep your success to yourself.
Here I am to share market opinion not Trading lesson.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #19,048
  • Aug 10, 2008 2:46pm Aug 10, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Here is eurjpy 15 min 3 trades .. no losses ... 510 pip gain using a very simple technique

Attachment
I agree with you on keeping it as simple as possible. Could you produce a similar chart for EUR/USD

Thank You


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #19,049
  • Edited 3:14pm Aug 10, 2008 2:59pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting acumen
"In fact it is accepted fact that 95% of ALL Forex traders lose their money."

Firstly - it's not a fact.

There's no way to verify this number's accuracy.

Where did that number come?

Did someone call all of the brokers that deal with FX accounts and gather their statistics?

Did the data come from one or two brokers and this is a random sampling?

Is a trader someone who opens an account - buys the EURO last week and is sent packing after a margin call a trader or ill informed tool?

Is there a grace period to eliminate these individuals?

Say - six months.

How many traders fail after lasting six months?

If I lose an account, open a new one and start winning am I counted on the losers column or winners?

If you have some data to validate this number I'd love to see it?

At the moment I have no documented evidence of this fact. I accept it mainly because I have seen this number mentionned about 1000 times over the last five years at least. It has come from over 100 independent sources most of them major participants in the Forex market.

The number is good enough for me to mention whether it is actually 75% or 95%

It really is not an issue. Do you have such documented information to prove your Strong US Dollar View ?

Probably not since you are more of a technical trader. If I happen to come across more specific documented information I will post it so you can then accept the number that I mentionned and you can be more at ease if you see it again.

I am getting used to your posting and thinking. It is always good to try to understand how someone thinks different than you. There is always something to learn somewhere.

Have A Great Trading Week !!!


Just To Confirm My Comments and Give You The Best Answer and Proof Available and maybe put this VERY IMPORTANT Topic to bed and get on to other things here is a Google link that should satisfy your point of view or maybe not.

Link:

http://www.google.com/search?q=+95%2...e=utf8&oe=utf8

Here Is A Good Snippet From One Of The Many Links and it is one of the best answer that I can give you. Think about it long and hard. It is my point of view as well and it is what it is proof or no proof.

Enjoy !!!

Trading Psychology - What separates the men from the boys
The real "holy grail" of trading is mastering yourself. Controlling Your own human traits. Winning traders are very disciplined and self controlled. They know how to cope with losses. They remain focused and objective no matter what. They trade without the fear of loss and they know how to overcome greed. And the traits of winning traders have not changed for decades. Winner traders are those who fine-tuned their trading psychology over the years and did not quit after a few losses. This small group of traders achieved what the vast majority of traders will never learn. It is a hard process, much harder than learning technical analysis, reading charts or understanding the news. It is so hard because it is about controlling our most basic human traits.
Conclusion - Focus on Trading Psychology just like you focus on Trading itself
There are no short cuts in trading, just like there are no short cuts in practicing law, playing professional basketball or orchestrating an orchestra. But if you prepare to do what it takes, you will be rewarded. The winning 5% of forex traders are a living proof to the power of trading psychology.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #19,050
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:19pm Aug 10, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Trading Psychology - What separates the men from the boys
The real "holy grail" of trading is mastering yourself. Controlling Your own human traits. Winning traders are very disciplined and self controlled. They know how to cope with losses. They remain focused and objective no matter what. They trade without the fear of loss and they know how to overcome greed. And the traits of winning traders have not changed for decades. Winner traders are those who fine-tuned their trading psychology over the years and did not quit after a few losses. This small group of traders achieved what the vast majority of traders will never learn. It is a hard process, much harder than learning technical analysis, reading charts or understanding the news. It is so hard because it is about controlling our most basic human traits.
Conclusion - Focus on Trading Psychology just like you focus on Trading itself
There are no short cuts in trading, just like there are no short cuts in practicing law, playing professional basketball or orchestrating an orchestra. But if you prepare to do what it takes, you will be rewarded. The winning 5% of forex traders are a living proof to the power of trading psychology.
So true - thanks
"gewinnen kommt von innen " winning comes from inside

if you master yourself the money will follow
  • #19,051
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:20pm Aug 10, 2008 3:20pm
Quoting Warren Forex
I agree with you on keeping it as simple as possible. Could you produce a similar chart for EUR/USD

Thank You


Bruce
4th to 6th august .....

220 pips

if you take this weeks trade into consideration another 400 pips

That is alot of pips using something VERY simple

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 198 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,052
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:22pm Aug 10, 2008 3:22pm
hello everyone, im new on this forum so.... i have been thinking since april, may that usd will become "stronger" in august and specially after the summer, but us economy is not that strong, specially in this week where fannie and freddie reported losses of more than 2b dollars. i think thats a big problem for usa, and a huge problem for americans because they will pay that. i consider them like the engine of the economy, consumers!so its not so sunny over america, also its not sunny in europe, i think its raining! so technically, i think that its a good moment to entry long in eurusd with a short stop because if it breaks .495 it could be go more to the south!at least thats what i think and what i feel! and if im wrong, try to improve and learn more for the next time! sorry because of my english
  • #19,053
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:26pm Aug 10, 2008 3:26pm
Quoting atif
I don't care how big and successful forex trader you are as this is not going to help me in my trading.
Your money is yours and my money is mine.
I will learn it by myself. I don't need anyone's help or mentor.
I think some people in this forum trying to get some people to make money by teaching Forex Trading.
Thank you very much. I don't need your help.
Keep your success to yourself.
Here I am to share market opinion not Trading lesson.
you seem like you are a newer trader.

To have a mentor in this game is an awesome advantage i think . I have spent many hours showing others and sharing my techniques , some of them have become very good traders.

If you think you know it all as a new traders ( less than 2 years experience) you are bound to lose alot of money along the way. I know my 1st year of trading cost me $50 k . I only wished i had a mentor

Some of the postings I have posted today are very valid trading set ups and very simple.

You have the choice to look at things that more experienced traders have to show you , or you can be blind to them.

by the way I do run a trading room .. and have not mentioned it once .... so am not trying to sell anything.

All i am trying to do is pass along my knowledge to others so that they may gain from my mistakes in the past and learn from how I am still in this game 5 years later
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,054
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:27pm Aug 10, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting surtrader
hello everyone, im new on this forum so.... i have been thinking since april, may that usd will become "stronger" in august and specially after the summer, but us economy is not that strong, specially in this week where fannie and freddie reported losses of more than 2b dollars. i think thats a big problem for usa, and a huge problem for americans because they will pay that. i consider them like the engine of the economy, consumers!so its not so sunny over america, also its not sunny in europe, i think its raining! so technically, i think that its a good moment to entry long in eurusd with a short stop because if it breaks .495 it could be go more to the south!at least thats what i think and what i feel! and if im wrong, try to improve and learn more for the next time! sorry because of my english
Do Your Own Research and Make Your Own Decisions. Work Hard and learn as much as you can. Good Fortune to you. It is nice to see your first post here.


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #19,055
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:31pm Aug 10, 2008 3:31pm
Quoting malcolmb14
you seem like you are a newer trader.

To have a mentor in this game is an awesome advantage i think . I have spent many hours showing others and sharing my techniques , some of them have become very good traders.

If you think you know it all as a new traders ( less than 2 years experience) you are bound to lose alot of money along the way. I know my 1st year of trading cost me $50 k . I only wished i had a mentor

Some of the postings I have posted today are very valid trading set ups and very simple.

You have the choice to look at things that more experienced traders have to show you , or you can be blind to them.

by the way I do run a trading room .. and have not mentioned it once .... so am not trying to sell anything.

All i am trying to do is pass along my knowledge to others so that they may gain from my mistakes in the past and learn from how I am still in this game 5 years later

Thank you for your charts and thank you for your healthy point of view. Thank you for helping and sharing. I hope more prople post on this thread with your excellent approach and attitude.

I agree with your remarks. I had to teach myself and as you said it would have been great to have a Mentor !

Have A Great Trading Week !!!


Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #19,056
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:32pm Aug 10, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Here is eurjpy 15 min 3 trades .. no losses ... 510 pip gain using a very simple technique

Attachment

Hey Malcolmb, I like your simple chart..Can u send me your template???
Tx
  • #19,057
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:36pm Aug 10, 2008 3:36pm
Quoting acumen
"In fact it is accepted fact that 95% of ALL Forex traders lose their money."

Firstly - it's not a fact.

There's no way to verify this number's accuracy.

Where did that number come?

Did someone call all of the brokers that deal with FX accounts and gather their statistics?

Did the data come from one or two brokers and this is a random sampling?

Is a trader someone who opens an account - buys the EURO last week and is sent packing after a margin call a trader or ill informed tool?

Is there a grace period to eliminate these individuals?

Say - six months.

How many traders fail after lasting six months?

If I lose an account, open a new one and start winning am I counted on the losers column or winners?

If you have some data to validate this number I'd love to see it?
I also heard/read this percentage for the whole FUTURES market, but I think it's nothing empirical.
  • #19,058
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:40pm Aug 10, 2008 3:40pm
This movement smells of a trap?????? Comments
  • #19,059
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:41pm Aug 10, 2008 3:41pm
eurusd and eurjpy dropping quick in early trading. eurusd at 1.4949
  • #19,060
  • Aug 10, 2008 3:44pm Aug 10, 2008 3:44pm
EUR USD

1.4885 until US Open 08.30 EST Monday
492 traders viewing now