EURUSD

Quoting Warren Forex

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I just received an email from one of my trusted information sources that rely heavily on charting.

Since I have read many similar reports this weekend my conclusion is to agree with the following comments as it is the only logical explanation for the substantial move in all currencies other than USD/JPY ...

Our charts were indicating a pullback for the Euro, and other currencies. However, I did not expect it to be this dramatic given the current state of the US economy. The fact that the Euro pulled back so much leads me to only one conclusion - Central Bank intervention!

The US economy is in awful shape and does not appear to be getting any better. But it is well known that the US Treasury must borrow an exceptional amount of money over the coming days. How does the US Treasury get to borrow money at exceptionally low intere$t rates? Simple. Have the Central Banks temporarily buy US Dollars and create the illusion that everything is ok.

And I suspect that's exactly what the US Federal Reserve and the other Central Banks across Europe and Asia have done.
But this fiction is not going to last forever. I suspect the Euro and other currencies are close to a bottom and when they bottom out and start moving up a crisis is going to develop. This is simply the "calm before the storm".

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Quoting Tmac

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If you could "read between the lines" then you would know that it is these exact things that move this pair, no agenda just facts

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Quoting piptechnician

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Quote: Have the Central Banks temporarily buy US Dollars and create the illusion that everything is ok.

Let's dissect that sentence. The truth the fact is the , the Central Banks have bought the dollar. The agenda, "creat the illusion that everything is ok".

Read between the lines, maybe I can't, it is good to be enlightened.

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Quoting Warren Forex

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The assumptions incorrect that there is a hidden agenda is yours not mine. You need to deal with that fact. I merely shared on this EUR/USD thread another point of view and since I do not beleive in editing some one else's point of view, I posted it wothout Intervention.

You make an issue when there is none. Please think about that.

Read it or skip it but why put your comments about style. When you post something I just read it and move on. It is much more simple that way. We are all entitled to our own point of view and way of posting as long as it is not disruptive.

It is becomming very unpleasant for me to keep dealing with negative and irrelevant posts directed at me. Thank you.

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Quoting iiivb

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if we look close enough, is not THAT big deal to trade the retracement if we use momentum to grab something here and there,

but maybe the elder and wiser veterans' advice could be to trade only momentum... but in direction AT LEAST of the day trend.

dunno... i am not that old...

hehe

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Quoting malcolmb14

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depnds on time frame you are trading .... swing traders better to wait for retracement to end and then take the short if that daily resistance line at 1.5350 hyolds.

but us day traders can play the retracement on a 10 min chart. I see the bullish div on the 15 min and any other day I would be going long off the double bottom for a quick 50 - 80 pips , how I do not like holding on a weekend. The plan would be to take the long off the double bottom and bullish div and if the bullish div trend line on rsi was broken get immediately out of the trade. it is a very low risk to high reward day trade 1:4

If you want to be more certain of the retracement stay out of the ' danger zone ' 1st 100 pips of any reversal....1.5100 entry long would be ok with a stop just under the top of the Keltner channel at 1.5070 , again if this is going back to 1.5350 this would be a 30 pip risk for 250 pip reward ,,,,

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Quoting daytrader44

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Despite technical reasons I do not believe the dollar has much more steam...our economy is having a simple reaction in its downtrend...even if the dollar does gain a little more you cannot keep currency valuable in an unstable economy like our own.

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Quoting piptechnician

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I apologize for taking this thread off topic. Just to note, I am neither long or short right now. My bias is currently based upon breaking the double top and just looking for confirmation that a target can be reached approximately a price range equal to the bottom and top of the aforementioned chart formation. I do not dispute that fundamentals drive the market, it is to what degree when one acknowledges who’s power trumps all others in the forex market. Who ultimately controls the kingdom, when they start buying, I don’t see it as a conspiracy to be feared but an opportunity.

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Quoting tamster

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Not sure why some people here are having such a problem with Warren's post.

I find them very informative and indeed reflect my own opinion of the current economic situation.

For those of you who do not follow fundamentals closely, Bernanke stated that there are 'rare and unusual circumstances' when the Fed would intervene in the market. The dollar being on the brink of collapse would, in my opinion, be such a circumstance. Art Cashin of UBS, a very well respected, veteran trader, also stated on CNBC that if the dollar broke support it would go into freefall. Obviously, the Fed are not going to let this happen if they can prevent it.

How this will play out in the market I cannot say because so many extraneous factors can come into force to change circumstances in a flash.
Consequently we can only trade what the charts are telling us at present.

This forum is open to everyone to express their opinions, fundamental or technical. It is very immature to get personal in an argument - if you disagree with someone then just state your reasons and assume that there are some intelligent people here who can make there own decisions based on the facts and opinions of others.

Bringing up that website regarding Warren was definitely hitting below the belt and totally unnecessary.

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Quoting Warren Forex

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With Respect I will make the effort to explain Forex to you in real terms.

Forex is about the following;

It is a marketplace set up for corporations doing business all over the world and as well world Governments and associated entities to do business by buying and selling money.

When this marketplace was opened up to everyone with no exceptions. The one exception is if you have no money just demo trade. I guess anyone with $1000 US Dollars can trade and have an opinion on Forex.

Charts are 100% known to only represent Human Pyschology at that exact moment. The moment being now. When Trichet spoke at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday last he changed the Pyschology through his words.

PERCEPTION changed not REALITY.

The Central Banks then used this as a COVER for their actions of INTERVENTION.

The Rules Of Engagement Must Be Understood To Have A Chance To Earn A Living Trading Forex.

If anyone has serious issues of immaturity they are guaranteed to be losers in Forex. In fact it is accepted fact that 95% of ALL Forex traders lose their money. That includes the largest ones as well.

You cannot succeed trading FX only using charts. You cannot succeed only using fundamentals.

You need to understand Money Management ! You need to be mature enough to deal with your fears, your bias, your greed and last but not least, your EGO ...

You cannot trade FX without these character traits affecting your FX trading.

You need to understand Politics, Economics, Human Nature.

50% at least of the information that you read is false.

At the least it is misleading. If you do not understand that then how can you have the correct data to make the right decision ?

You cannot.

The best example in recent days is the recent Pending Home Sales Number released last week.

The Number was reported by CNBC as being positive. The market took it as positive BUT it was not !

Why not ? There has been a great increase in foreclosures and it continues to get worse by the day.

Therefore there is more good bargains coming on the market.

Those still with MONEY buy these bargains and of course the number of Pending Home Sales goes up. Are things better ? Of course not !

Welcome To The Fantasy World and trust me or not it will come to a bad end for the US economy. I tried so hard to encourage posters to think for themselves at the very least. Go to WWW.JSMINESET.COM to read the facts from experts 100 times more knowledgeable than I.

The reason that most lose in Forex is that they think they know but in reality they do not.

How many hours of this day have I taken to deal with various issues here ?

Too many. I am going to give myself a break and go for a swim and a sauna.

Can you not see the useless nature of most of the posts about me ?

I can only say in closing I am a proven successful currency trader managing substantial funds for my clients and shareholders.

I do not need approval or confirmation of my skills. I hope you will focus on the positive and learn how to trade Forex as a Winner !!!

As I have said before, FTP is the way to go along with all the other needed skills of Forex Trading. Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception

Add to that Money Management and A Mature Stable Knowledgeable FX Trader. You must INVEST your time to learn.

I started learning September 2003 and I only demo traded until the month of March 2006. In the 2 1/2 years of Real FX Trading I have learned a lot. I learn everyday. I learned last week and I will continue to learn and succeed.

Making Money is Hard Work and if you do not do it right you will lose.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion. My FX trading is about RESULTS and not opinions.


If I do not get results I do Not have Clients and If I do Not Perform I make No Money.

I hope the time that I just gave you from my life helped you understand the world of Forex trading.

If not it was still worth it to at least try since that is the only way of Life I know.

Quiiters NEVER Win and Winners Never Quit ...

I am A Winner and I NEVER GIVE UP or GIVE in to unfairness ot injustice.

Believe it or NOT ... This Attitude is 100% Relative to the Topic of Currency Trading and Success !!!

I wish you the best in your Forex trading and your life. Have A Great Sunday.

I am off to enjoy some of my life before the Pressure and Fun of FX trading starts for me today at 5:15 PM


Bruce

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