EURUSD

The market is just crazy

Please don't take this as mean spirited... but it might be a good idea to investigate the concept of money management.

If two trades put you in a margin call then you don't understand the most important facet of trading.

We can't tell you what to do - this isn't an alerting service but I might suggest you take your money off the table and head back to the drawing board.

My Dear Fellow FX Trader

You and I have strong views. It is not a question of ego. It is a question of both of us being correct so we both can make money which should be one of the main reasons that you trade FX.

At the moment we both have opposite views. Let me try to show you why you might want to reconsider your position on your US Dollar Bull opinion.

I am always open to changing my position as well however it must be based on facts and not emotion or ego or belief in country. The facts and only the facts. Economic facts, Political facts and perhaps most important at the moment is Human facts as it relates to PERCEPTION.

Yes it is 100% clear that Trichet's comments on Thursday caused a major change in market PERCEPTION.

Thus EUR/USD at 1.5015 now with the Low that I saw on my FXCM platform at 1.49996 for all of a split second before it moved over 1.5000 just barely.

Please watch the following video from experts in the currency field. All reading this post will improve their FX trading results if they take the 7 minutes or so that it takes to watch this most informative video on FTP.

Fundamentals + Technicals + Perception

Notice how they mention that Fundamentals is also about Supply and Demand.

We now are at a extreme PERCEPTION stage in the Video so knowing the Fundamentals gives US a EDGE before the Technical Charts show the change in direction as well.

The Forex Market is set up mainly for large and small business and government entities to buy and sell money.

Do you not think that those that need Euro's will not BUY it at this excellent price. Of course they just might wait to see if they can get it for even a cheaper price at 1.4900 ?

The charts only go so far. The uptrend in the Euro is still there on a longer chart. Are you aware that the US Dollar Index is now at a STRONG RESISTANCE ? Look at the Charts.


Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!


We only care about the Real Direction of EUR/USD

I cannot say for sure that it will not go to 1.4900 however I do not think that it is likely but I Will be prepared if it does go there.

Now let us get to fundamentals which is my area of expertise. I am not so smart that what I say comes from my own knowledge. However I have a brain and can read and have excellent financial and economic skills and know where to get great information and research.

Please do yourself a favor with an open mind and go to one of the best sites for accurate information of a personal note from one of the most clever and knowledgeable men in the world.

I have been reading the information on his website since 1999. He has incredible insight into the markets and a great team of real knowledgeable contributors who freely help the public with accurate information without spin or ego or bias. Just try for a few days to go there once a day for 15 minutes at the end of the trading day to catch up on real fundamental changing news items. Jim Sinclair is his name.

Here is the website url, WWW.JSMINESET.COM

I welcome your comments and anyone else here who has opinions on this subject.

If I have one strength it is that "I Know What I Don't Know" I am always open to changing my opinion and bias but not unless it makes 100% sense to me. Yes you must use Common Sense along with your intelligence.

Do not listen to the talking heads on CNBC. They are knowledgeable but they have a reason for things to go up. The government statistics are phoney and any intelligent open minded person knows that. Therefore how can all the data be understood properly ? It cannot so you need alternate sources of information. I use 4Cast and "Trade The New" I get hundreds of emails a day from different information sources.

I get to see all views and then I make up my own mind based on information and common sense.

Remember when we were told last August 2007 how the Housing Market and Subprime was not a problem ?

Look at what is happening now. Billions and Billions in writeoffs and for sure another Trillion to come. The FED is out of control in order to protect their private interests. The market now accepts these Billion Dollar Losses like it is a great thing. They think the worst is over. It is NOT. It is only starting and spreading throughout the US Economic system. Housing has a long way down to go. Here is one example of that ! Pending Home Sales went Up !

WOW ! The Spinners told us honestly with their obvious bias it was good. What they did not tell everyone was that the massive increase in foreclosures cause many people with money looking for a bargain to buy one of those foreclosures. So data that appears on the surface to be good is really not good at all.

That is why having access to these facts which is available to all of you is so important. Misinformation moves markets but Fundamentals move them back. Did you notice the recent GM declared loss ? That is not positive for the Auto Industry in the USA and workers. Look at the last rate of unemployment at 5.7% Look at new jobless claims on Thursday of 445,000 ! Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack ! Who will buy those homes coming on the market with No Cash and No credit ? The FED with US Dollars is now the lender of last resort !

INCREDIBLE BUT TRUE ! History Will record that the Elected Officials in the USA gave the Bankers the Power to protect their friends and harm Americans.

Who is to blame ? Not the Bankers really but those that foolishly authorized it in the name of the American People. Woe Is Them !
What Happens to the Trillions of Dollars of Losses to surely come. The FED needs to print more money and causes more inflation. The US Dollar goes down causing PRICE INFLATION rather than MONETARY INFLATION.

The FED Fails on both counts of their mandate from the US Citizens through their elected representatives. Read Ron Paul and his comments ! This is real and not my opinion. These are serious facts.

INFLATION is caused by Printing TOO MUCH MONEY and that is what the FED and other world central banks are now doing. Gold is their Enemy as is the price of Oil.

No FIAT Currency EVER survived. That is a FACT. Why ? They the bankers eventually so debase their currencies that it gets destroyed. unfortunately for the people of that country when it happens it is too late to do anything about it.

I guarantee you that Greenspan and Bernake and Paulson have a great part of their wealth invested in Gold offshore somewhere.

It is such a SAD JOKE ... The FED whose one of two mandates is to control inflation is causing it by their actions.

Those are the facts and not the opinions.

Feedback is both welcome and appreciated.

Let US All make Money not only the bankers who always make money no matter what.

By the way this is not about the bankers it is about the truth. It is about reality. It also could be about your FUTURE.

"Knowledge Is Power" only if it is used to profit from.

Sincerely yours


Bruce

but appreciate the levity.

I doubt I can find that chart... unless I'm allowed to include this past weeks EURO drumming.

I'm NOT disagreeing with - just suggesting you urge extreme caution.

i am also picking at you and i am sorry for that.

I also share your opinions on the USD just made a passing shot at the way you explained it.

No offense intended.

I am long but not expecting anything just have to wait on Mondays trading to prove me right or wrong.

Best Regards
Joseph

What do you reckon the all time high was in mate...read the title of the thread your posting in lately

Warren,

That's probably the longest post I've every read. Pleas don't do that again. I like short stories not novels.

My skills in fundamental analysis simply aren't strong enough to make a coherent rebuttal. My background is in computers and psychology with a emphasis on behavioral finance not economics.

I'm a day trader who relies on price action to dictate my entries and exits. I've always believed fundamental analysis is a lagging indicator. My perception is the market always seems to be in front of the data.

I believe the FED is done and the next move will be up or sideways but not down . Additionally - I believe the zone will be cutting soon. Finally - I believe we've seen a top in Oil. If these assumptions are incorrect then my analysis is dead wrong.

I don't mind being wrong - my wife tells me it's a daily occurrence so I'm going to stick with my call. I believe this is the genesis of a dollar bull market.

Sincerely,

Mike

No offense taken.

Appreciate the response and I'm glad you are on the thread.

The more opinions the better.

I misinterpreted your post.

Apologies.

No worries mate.... who knows you could well be right...if you are don't forget to remind the wife about it daily as well

Show me a day, were the euro dollar dropped 300 pips in one day or 500 pips in two days?
Didnt happen until yesterday.
You cant see the trading world so static, new things happen everyday that never happened before, my assumption is that this happens because nobody actually expects it.
best regards
Paul

"WOW ! The Spinners told us honestly with their obvious bias it was good. What they did not tell everyone was that the massive increase in foreclosures cause many people with money looking for a bargain to buy one of those foreclosures. So data that appears on the surface to be good is really not good at all."

interesting....as they obviously dont say whose buying...Donald Trump and Bill Gates could have been buying all the foreclosures....

yesssssssssssssssss how did you know ???????????????

Thanks.

PokPok,

I have failed to explain myself properly.

Any time we have a trend. 10 sec or 1min or 15 min or 30min or 1hr or 4 hr or 1day or 1 week or 1 year or 1 decade.

there is always oppersite movements, 'counter trends' there has to be buying in the selling down. That's the way markets work. Even in yesterdays sell down there was still buying counter rallies. I know this cuz I was selling them!

That is my point. its done now topic closed, at my end anyway.

Happy trading.

Cheers
Joseph

These are my main arguments for a USD bull, we think alike Acumen.

Cheers
Joseph

I was starting to think I was a loner.

Joseph,

under the current circumstances, I believe that the probability of rebounding from 1.5000 to 1.5050 is maybe around 40%, to 1.5100 maybe 20%. These figures are my subjective thoughts, just like you have your thoughts. This is based on the idea that we have started a downtrend for the next 30 to 50 trading days, the high decline on friday is a strong sign of selling pressure in the markets.
I know models that are partly based on the assumption that the eurodollar will not fall more than 1,25% on one single day, based on that it didnt in the past. These models have been proofed wrong, at the expense of the capital (This is the idea which I had addressed in my previous post).
Anyway, time will tell...
Best regards
Paul

any1 noticed that the EU hit the weekly 50ma?

I sincerely tried to help you improve your trading so that you might earn 20% a month on managed FX funds as I constantly do. Perhaps no one out there can earn 20% a month on managed funds however I know I do.

The last time I offered to send a REAL PDF file of my 1502 FX trades for a client during October 2, 2007 to November 7, 2007 in which the first 673 FX trades were ALL winning ones in blocks of 100K and after ALL positions of USD/JPY were closed the Net Profit was $19,246.02

Twee banned me for two weeks since he said that I broke rule 3 about promoting. However I sell no services here. I do not manage money for anyone here. When I suggest websites to visit they are always free ones.

In other words I will not give my email address again so I can send the PDF file. You either accept my words or not.

My only point to you is not to be concerned about the length of my post that has no relevance to my comments here.

With No DISRESPECT to you personally I see that you are not really interested in trying a different approach to trading FX.

My approach obviously works based on my REAL PROVEABLE results.

If your trading style works for you and you make money and do not want to improve your results that is your choice, not mine.

I only make this point to tell anyone tempted to challenge me that it does no good for anyone here to even bother. I am not on trial here.

My only purpose posting here is to help those that want to learn and improve their FX trading. Did you even take the 7 minutes to watch the video ?

I would like to hear your opinion about what the video tells you ? Of course you can reply to me with your ego and I already can anticipate the answer. We are here to help each other not to prove who is smarter or better.

Perhaps you might want to listen to your wife more since she has a better handle on you than I ever will.

Mike

Seriously, you are way to intelligent to keep your head in the sand. I will tell you 100% that the Dollar Bull is DEAD. Ignore that information at your financial peril if you insist on going against the trend. I change my opinions slowly but if a fundamental fact makes a big difference I can change my views in a second. You offer opinions which is fine. Take the time to explain to yourself why you have these opinions and your trading results will improve.

FUNDAMENTALS LEAD the Market Period ... Yes there are periods that PERCEPTION gets ahead of reality and we saw that in the last few days.

Try again or not to read my last post. Perhaps this time you might learn something or not. Watch the video if you have not.

On a light note why don't you ask your wife to watch the video and then the both of you can discuss it. that surely should be fun. I would pay to watch that rather than the China Olympics that I am watching now.

Peace Out and please answer if you want without your EGO. Just Good Common Sense that I KNOW you have. I can be as stubborn as you however unfortunastely I am a 64 year old single man and no one of the female sex is around to set me straight. Well I do have a 22 year old female friend cooking some soup for me. She could be my grandaughter but I never had children so she is just a friend. She is a real estate agent and I am proud of her trying hard to get ahead in this crazy world of ours.

I am off to have the Hot Soup now...

Take care ...


Bruce