EURUSD

... this is the greatest quote that I've heard since I've been on this thread. Excellent advice. And I think today is the first day that I truly traded that way.

For the newbies like myself, take heed to that tidbit... trust your indicators... stay away from making foolish decisions during major news reports/releases... don't go against the grain (the trend truly is your friend )... it will save us a lot of heartache and pain in the long run...

God bless... and I'm waiting for retracement!!!

Will close below support line.. Possible breakout or fakeout?

for me.... if we break 1,5285.... which is a real strong support... we go to 1,5020... 1st fibo level.... but.... we are really overbought .... if the support holds.... we have a nice flag and the bull trend will continue.... but this is just my opinion.... so.... we will see

Nice, to hear that I could help. Everyone has to learn, its good that you are aware of it. Awareness is important element in trading that is rarely talked about, it also applies to life in general terms. The way I learned to do it, was to always question myself, why I am doing something. At the beginning it is hard, but once you start to build up a relax, you start to make less mistakes, which saves you capital at the end.

Best regards
Paul

forget about your 1,52
you wanted to say.... oversold

fake, no important news for tomorrow, will go up!

Attached is a picture of the daily chart. Ignore everything except the two solid yellow lines that outline the range it has been trading since February.

The last time I posted this chart, the price was just retracing from the top of the range.

See the buy in the middle of the range? This is a so-called 'scalp' that was aiming for a 5 pips profit. It is about -250 right now, but is such a tiny lot size that it would have to get to about -1000 before I started to worry. In the meantime, it is attracting positive swap and I look forward confidently to a rising market eventually closing the trade.

If you want a good medium-term trade, then a long is a good idea.

I hope.

thanks, can you show me an example of 5 doji's on hourly and it going down?

yes video.... you're right I mean oversold.... but why are you so sure that the support will hold? I'd love to be as sure as you look like.... but I saw and read too many times... about experts who were wrong too.... so.... I'm just a poor part-time trader....

in my opinion.... if, after this down move, if we have 5 doji.... it might be because there is now power or will to recover....

my view is you have trade like support and resistance will hold, until it doesn't.

very well said. I think that's the crux of trading.

you're right.... but maybe you noted that in my post I was writting 2 scenarios.... if will hold.... and if will not..... may I ask you why are you so sure that will hold? For me doesn't make difference.... if i go short or long.... I just try to understand were the cross will go.... that's why I'm asking you.....

If it doesn't hold, I will not trade it down, and wait till next week to look at the charts.

good luck... each of us has his own strategy

Look at the chart, wasnt too long ago. The results were not too bad either, although the chart formation happened in a low volume time frame...

However you cant make the assumption it will happen again, general speaking 50% chance that everything will go down, or 50% chance that it will go up. Even if the markets go down tomorrow, it didnt mean, it was due to the five doji's in a row. However you can look at a couple of things and make your personal view on the market, like mine is short on the EURUSD for the moment.

Here a more easy example to understand the misassumption.
Last Wednesday it rained. Every Wednesday it will rain.

This arguement isnt true.

Good night and looking forward towards tomorrows session.
Paul

EU drop for almost 200 pips straight and is now oversold even if trichet is bearish for the EU it still need to retrace back up some pips before resume fall. Furthermore US credit crises haven't been resolved so I still expect a retrace for EU.

maybe will try first to test 1,53

Here is an excellent explanation for all of us as to what is actually happening now. I will copy and paste a old post that I did on the "Knowledge Is Power" thread that I usually post my observations on.

Here it is. I will offer an explanation of how it applies to the current state of EUR/USD as it tries to reach support at 1.5285 after you read the following and watch the 7 minute video from WWW.INO.COM

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...n/post_old.gif Jun 15, 2008 8:49am
Warren Forex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
Warrenforex
Member Since Sep 2006
Posts: 1,313


http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Comments For All FX Traders New Ones And Experienced Ones !
The above two posts give you a clear picture of how I look to understand and review the present state of the FX currency markets. I constantly do this to ensure that no fundamental changes are taking place in the marketplace.

If you have not viewed the video posted on this thread called "FTP" please do so after reading this post. FUNDAMENTALS get you into your position ahead of most others. Then you use TECHNICALS to get the BEST entry into that currency and also know where everyone sees, Support, Resistance and Pivot Points.

Then we get to PERCEPTION as I just explained above as did Jack Crooks confirm. GUESS WHAT ? Just like in the FTP video of a little less than 7 minutes shows, when the PERCEPTION becomes commonplace, that is when it will be ready to reverse as it just might do at or shortly over the next few days since ONE, there will be surprise by the NON ACTION of the G8 and following that on Monday and Tuesday coming, there is IMPORTANT US Data on the housing market including the much watched and accepted NAHB index coming out on Monday at 1:00 PM

I will do another post on how to take advantage of this knowledge to make money using my method of trading FX which works.

Here is the Link to the FTP video.

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/t...eboard_6/?blog

PLEASE WATCH IT !!! Thank You !!!






So Now To Explain how this relates to the EUR/USD going from 1.5500 at 8:30 AM today and now it tries to test 1.5285

The Fundamentals are screaming "Head Fake" What exactly happened fundamentally to send things to 1.5300 ?

Trichet was initially perceived to be Hawkish on Inflation. However the Perception was quickly seen otherwise when he did not suggest another raise in ECB rates. He did not even suggest that at the next ECB meeting in September rates would not be raised. The market wanted that just as it was convinced just before the FED announcement that it would probably raise in 2008 which WILL NOT HAPPEN.

Perhaps the information released on one of the Fannie's tomorrrow will bring things back to reality. I will be getting ready to go LONG EUR/USD while the majority are now talking 1.5000

No Way Jose !!!

Never Forget that the real purpose of the Forex Market is to buy INVENTORY which is Money.

FAIR MARKET VALUE for EUR/USD now is 1.5600

That is my own call on it. Watch the Video. Understand the Fundamentals. Watch the charts and be ready to make money going against the masses who ALWAYS LOSE !!!

I also suggest that everyone reading this post go to WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Snippet:

Jim Sinclair's Commentary:
The US dollar is the common share of USA Inc. The economic condition of any public company influences its value. Now ruminate on the talking heads that are raving dollar bulls today. Right now I am watching a little girl from Morgan Stanley informing us about the dollar. She looks so young that I am sure she is carded anytime she tries to buy a beer. She is an EXPERT. The entire reason for dollar bullishness is a break upwards of the 200-day moving average. God help us all.
AIG Posts $5.4 Billion Loss
As Housing Woes Continue
By LIAM PLEVEN
August 7, 2008; Page C2
American International Group Inc. reported its third consecutive multibillion-dollar quarterly loss, a $5.4 billion hit that underscores the continuing problems the troubled housing market poses for the insurer.
The second-quarter results from the New York firm also reflect some of the difficulties it faces in its core insurance businesses, where prices for many types of insurance are falling.
AIG said a portfolio of credit derivatives tied to subprime mortgages that has driven much of its losses in the past two quarters fell in value by another $5.6 billion in the period. That came on top of roughly $20 billion in earlier declines.
In addition, AIG logged $6.1 billion in capital, or investment, losses, mostly because of declines in the value of mortgage-linked securities and other investments for which AIG said it "could not reasonably assert that the recovery period would be temporary."
The results once again show the depth of the challenges that face Chief Executive Robert Willumstad, who took over in mid-June, after the company's board forced out Martin Sullivan. Mr. Willumstad has been AIG's chairman since 2006. The earnings also reinforce how quickly AIG's fortunes have shifted. In last year's second quarter, the firm reported nearly $4.3 billion in profit.
Mr. Sullivan had presided over the two-largest quarterly losses in AIG's history, including a record $7.8 billion loss in the first quarter. The second-quarter loss was slightly larger than the $5.3 billion AIG logged in last year's fourth quarter.
AIG's stock, which had risen sharply Tuesday, fell 80 cents, or 2.7%, to $29.09 on Wednesday in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading. That represents a nearly 15% decline since Mr. Willumstad got the top job.
The company reported its results after the market closed. In after-hours trading, the stock fell further, about 7.4%. Mr. Willumstad said, "These results do not reflect the earnings power and potential of AIG's businesses, and it is clear that we have a lot of work to do to restore AIG's profitability to where it should be."
He reiterated that he is reviewing the company's businesses "with the objectives of improving results, reducing AIG's risk profile and protecting our capital base."
Mr. Willumstad has said he intends to report back to investors in September on his plans. Speculation has swirled among investors about whether he will sell off units, particularly some that aren't central to AIG's insurance businesses.
AIG has already said it will keep its powerhouse aircraft-leasing operation, International Lease Finance Corp., which posted a record $352 million in operating income for the quarter, up 85%. However, in its quarterly filing Wednesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, AIG warned that financial stress in the airline industry, which it said was due in part to the high cost of fuel and worsening economic circumstances, "will likely have a negative effect on future lease rates and could begin to influence ILFC's results of operations as some airlines may approach ILFC to renegotiate transactions."
The company has raised $20 billion this year, and Mr. Willumstad, a former Citigroup Inc. executive, has emphasized the importance he attaches to the firm's financial strength. After he got the job, he said it was "paramount to have the balance sheet as strong as possible." That earlier capital-raising effort "gave them a little bit of a cushion for a second-quarter loss," said Cliff Gallant, an analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods who personally owns AIG shares. He called the quarterly loss "somewhat ugly" but not "too shocking.
More...


in order to read what really is happening without the SPIN of the Media and the comments of the economists who guess and are right about 50% of the time just like everyone else. That is unless you have an EDGE like I do understanding the Fundamentals on my own and not going along only with charts which do not forecast the future only the past and present.

I hope this post is able to help some of you with open minds to understand the nature of the game or at least the REAL RULES OF THE GAME !!!

Happy Trading All !!!


Bruce

I wont be taking any position since I not really convince to take any trades whether it will breaking top or bottom. So I waiting for a clearer sky for today or maybe next week.

@warrenforex
I love the part you analysis the EU. Sounds good and it does convince me...

Wish lot of pips to you all
mphpopular

Edit: something is moving EU right now?

Wow 40 pip drop in a 2 second span