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EURUSD

  • #18,041
  • Aug 7, 2008 4:47am Aug 7, 2008 4:47am
German Industrial Production in 15.

The question isn't if it's going to be bad...

The question is how bad.
  • #18,042
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:03am Aug 7, 2008 5:03am
Quoting acumen
German Industrial Production in 15.

The question isn't if it's going to be bad...

The question is how bad.
It Was Up 0.2 %

Not Much reaction so far !
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  • #18,043
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:04am Aug 7, 2008 5:04am
Quoting acumen
German Industrial Production in 15.

The question isn't if it's going to be bad...

The question is how bad.
That's not so good.
  • #18,044
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:07am Aug 7, 2008 5:07am
Quoting acumen
That's not so good.
agreed - I've take a small short. Swissy's rallying off its 550 level which should help....

edit: German construction was -2.1% - not good either
  • #18,045
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:08am Aug 7, 2008 5:08am
Quoting acumen
That's not so good.
I think the market is not sensitive to german's production now.... less than 2 hours before rate announcement
  • #18,046
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:10am Aug 7, 2008 5:10am
Currently, overnight index swaps are pricing in a very small chance of a rate cut within the next 12 months, but the recent moves in EUR/USD have more to do with the fact that traders are also pricing in rate increases by the Federal Reserve during the same period. Yet, if Mr. Trichet's commentary is hawkish enough to convince the markets that they have no intention of reducing rates anytime soon, the euro is likely to subsequently gain. However, it may take particularly strong words to ignite a significant rally for the currency, such as references to the ECB being in a state of "heightened alertness." On the flip side, if Mr. Trichet focuses more on monetary policy being appropriately accommodative, suggests that inflation pressures could ease in coming months, or sounds significantly more bearish on the Euro-zone economy, EUR/USD could continue to fall. Our bias for Thursday? EUR/USD could rally on Mr. Trichet's comments, but the gains may be short-lived.

Link:

http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...2008080655464/

More On Technicals !

The larger EURUSD bias remains bearish. But be careful in attempting to enter short following a drop of nearly 600 pips from the top (1.6039). In other words, the EURUSD is at risk of a sharp countertrend rally. We are working under the interpretation that the drop from 1.6039 is wave C of an expanded flat that began at 1.6018 and will not end until below 1.5283. Near term, bulls should face stiff resistance just above 1.5515.
DailyFX
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  • #18,047
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:10am Aug 7, 2008 5:10am
Quoting Warren Forex
It Was Up 0.2 %

Not Much reaction so far !
Waiting for the ECB and the bulls are praying for some help.

With the Euro-zone's largest player on the cusp of a recession... they better pray hard.
  • #18,048
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:16am Aug 7, 2008 5:16am
http://www.ino.com/
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  • #18,049
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:26am Aug 7, 2008 5:26am
Waiting for a break below 1.5462...lets see if it holds...
  • #18,050
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:34am Aug 7, 2008 5:34am
After the BOE announcement at 7:00 AM EST and the ECB announcement at 7:45 AM EST, if there is no surprises there might be some shorts covering in front of Trichet in that he is usually on the hawkish side. Also as New York traders come on board will there bias be tp go long EUR/USD ?
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  • #18,051
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:34am Aug 7, 2008 5:34am
Quoting twofeet
"going up" or "going down" depends what time frame it is, most people here trade the 4H/Daily TF. It's really dangerous and unsettling to factor in other people's commentary into your own trades, trust the charts and only your interpretation of it. If you're not sure, don't trade. If you lose, then record the lesson in a log book as a consideration for future trades. Each lesson learnt and applied reduces the risk in your next trade.

btw, having only MAs and pivots may not be such a bad idea. Candlesticks, trendlines, and support / resistance / pivot levels are the only things that really show what is going on, to facilitate some sort of forecast. Indicators follow the price - not the other way around.
Good morning all and good trading. I am catching up on the blog. I read with interest your back-and-forth about how to trade, trade your own strategy, etc. Very interesting, honest, and as always, very helpful. For all newbies (such as me), I suggest you read Twofeet's blog profile. Twofeet lays out a very sensible recommendation.

Thanks for all that you share.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #18,052
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:40am Aug 7, 2008 5:40am
Quoting Warren Forex
After the BOE announcement at 7:00 AM EST and the ECB announcement at 7:45 AM EST, if there is no surprises there might be some shorts covering in front of Trichet in that he is usually on the hawkish side. Also as New York traders come on board will there bias be tp go long EUR/USD ?
Guess that's the million $ question...
  • #18,053
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:40am Aug 7, 2008 5:40am
Quoting Warren Forex
After the BOE announcement at 7:00 AM EST and the ECB announcement at 7:45 AM EST, if there is no surprises there might be some shorts covering in front of Trichet in that he is usually on the hawkish side. Also as New York traders come on board will there bias be tp go long EUR/USD ?
LOL - I just did for +8 dont trust whipsaw before news....
  • #18,054
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:53am Aug 7, 2008 5:53am
10:47 EUR/USD: Euro Crosses Add Weight London, August 7. Into the BoE rate announcement (11:00 GMT) and EUR/GBP has fallen back to session lows. However, EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF have also eased and this cross weight is adding some pressure to EUR/USD. The Sterling pair has hit 0.7922 but the price is expected to recover after the BoE verdict. Dip buyers in EUR/USD into the 1.5450"s will use the latest drop to 1.5457 to set fresh speculative longs, in the hope Trichet takes a more hawkish position. [email protected]
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  • #18,055
  • Aug 7, 2008 5:59am Aug 7, 2008 5:59am
Good morning everyone...

Quick question,... are we suppose to use the week-end close, along with the high and low for that week to determine pivot points... are is it month-end?

I really need this information because I think the Rs and S's and P.P. that I have are different than other people's...

Please help me out... thx
  • #18,056
  • Aug 7, 2008 6:08am Aug 7, 2008 6:08am
Quoting mogenius76
Good morning everyone...

Quick question,... are we suppose to use the week-end close, along with the high and low for that week to determine pivot points... are is it month-end?

I really need this information because I think the Rs and S's and P.P. that I have are different than other people's...

Please help me out... thx
Here's a good source for up-to-date pivots - http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #18,057
  • Aug 7, 2008 6:10am Aug 7, 2008 6:10am
Quoting SpecialEd
Here's a good source for up-to-date pivots - http://www.actionforex.com/technical...-200603205734/
Thanks,... truly appreciate it...

Which one do you guys typically use (hourly, 4H, weekly..etc.)?
  • #18,058
  • Aug 7, 2008 6:18am Aug 7, 2008 6:18am
I'm long EUR now, target 56
  • #18,059
  • Aug 7, 2008 6:19am Aug 7, 2008 6:19am
Quoting mogenius76
Thanks,... truly appreciate it...

Which one do you guys typically use (hourly, 4H, weekly..etc.)?
I'm much less experienced than folks like ShadowFX, Warren, Jurassic, Freetrader, and Acumen, so they may have different opinions. I first look at the Daily and 4H pivots, but then I usually scan all the way up to Weekly and Monthly throughout the day. In short, I'm conscious of all except the hourly.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #18,060
  • Aug 7, 2008 6:25am Aug 7, 2008 6:25am
Long-504 PT-538
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