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  • #18,001
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:23am Aug 7, 2008 1:23am
Quoting Jurrasic
Yeah, 5540 now, but given the data above I personally don't intend to trade a break through it or close my shorts.
well , yes, there's the weekly tl, but was only touched 2-3 times, not a very strong one, my view is, there is going be usd bear rally or not, all pairs being affected, because bulls and bears should share, and take turns
  • #18,002
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:37am Aug 7, 2008 1:37am
Bull run in a bear market. Perfect time to short when lower high is formed.
  • #18,003
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:38am Aug 7, 2008 1:38am
Quoting Clouds
well , yes, there's the weekly tl, but was only touched 2-3 times, not a very strong one, my view is, there is going be usd bear rally or not, all pairs being affected, because bulls and bears should share, and take turns
You know I looked at the charts a bit more, and 562-565 could be a great place for a retracement to reach: It's been the main s/r level of this fall and the first fib level is there, it's also about the middle of the range and main s/r on daily, the daily 100 sma and the big yearly trendline we broke all pass through it about now and next week. I'll look at that area as a key level for a retracement, if we get there at all of course before trying for 53.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #18,004
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:49am Aug 7, 2008 1:49am
Quoting Jurrasic
You know I looked at the charts a bit more, and 562-565 could be a great place for a retracement to reach: It's been the main s/r level of this fall and the first fib level is there, it's also about the middle of the range and main s/r on daily, the daily 100 sma and the big yearly trendline we broke all pass through it about now and next week. I'll look at that area as a key level for a retracement, if we get there at all of course before trying for 53.
My analysis puts the daily [email protected] and if we remain in a negatively biased market this should also be the trading range high for the day. How are you getting your resistance level?
  • #18,005
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:52am Aug 7, 2008 1:52am
Also, my analysis shows that for a continuation of negative bias the euro must close below 1.5445.
  • #18,006
  • Aug 7, 2008 1:53am Aug 7, 2008 1:53am
Quoting freetrader
My analysis puts the daily [email protected] and if we remain in a negatively biased market this should also be the trading range high for the day. How are you getting your resistance level?
I don't use that stuff. I don't even know how you can put it on a chart where everyone has their own timeframe. I figure it won't break through 552 as a known strong resistance and hourly 100 mas just below it, at least not today - tomorrow is friday - the day of bs rallies to often be reversed on monday and maybe later too.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #18,007
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:02am Aug 7, 2008 2:02am
If we penetrate the 1.5492 (projected daily high range) level the next level of resistance is at 1.5563(less probable high range), however a pullback off resistance puts us at 1.5374 (significantly probable low) for our first speed bump and on toward 1.5327 (highly significant probable daily low) .
  • #18,008
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:02am Aug 7, 2008 2:02am
Quoting freetrader
My analysis puts the daily [email protected] and if we remain in a negatively biased market this should also be the trading range high for the day. How are you getting your resistance level?
In theory, it could make it all the way to R2 (~5568) without breaking out of the downward channel which begun on 7/15.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #18,009
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:02am Aug 7, 2008 2:02am
I'm short as of 1.5482 with wide stop because of volatility, looking to get to bottom of the channel or to long time support levels of 5400 or 5300
  • #18,010
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:03am Aug 7, 2008 2:03am
I respect the opinions i read here alot and i tend to factor that into my trade decisions. But now, all my charts says EU is going up, but everybody here says down, am getting confused here .
I know i might not be seeing the picture, so i want to ask why you guys still think the EU will continue to fall.
Please forgive me guys if this is a dumb question

EDIT: I have only moving averages and pivot points on my chart, maybe my sight is limited!!!
  • #18,011
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:08am Aug 7, 2008 2:08am
Quoting yemupz
I respect the opinions i read here alot and i tend to factor that into my trade decisions. But now, all my charts says EU is going up, but everybody here says down, am getting confused here .
It's the trend. I'm not using any indicators because I have tested them extensively and those that make any sense based on testing are based on previous highs or lows (like w% and stochastics) so I can see the peaks myself on the chart too.

Here are some of my charts to see why I think it's downtrend. Last is the long time trendline that is broken (the main reason why I'm so bearish), the next two are shorter timeframe pics.

Hope this helps a bit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd2.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd4.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd5.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #18,012
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:11am Aug 7, 2008 2:11am
Quoting yemupz
I respect the opinions i read here alot and i tend to factor that into my trade decisions. But now, all my charts says EU is going up, but everybody here says down, am getting confused here .
I know i might not be seeing the picture, so i want to ask why you guys still think the EU will continue to fall.
Please forgive me guys if this is a dumb question

EDIT: I have only moving averages and pivot points on my chart, maybe my sight is limited!!!
I think only you know the time frame of your trading strategy, your system, and your acceptable risk levels. If anyone attempted to tell you what to do with your position they would need to know how you made your decisions and arrived at your conclusions. I feel like you already have a plan that works for your psychological make-up. If you try to shift courses midstream and rely on someones opinions you may find yourself very disappointed at the end of the trade. Trust yourself.

cheers
FreeTrader
  • #18,013
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:15am Aug 7, 2008 2:15am
Thank you guys. I am learning a lot here.
I can see now, on lower timeframes that the bull retrace is almost ending.
  • #18,014
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:22am Aug 7, 2008 2:22am
Quoting yemupz
Thank you guys. I am learning a lot here.
I can see now, on lower timeframes that the bull retrace is almost ending.
Or the bear run is almost ending.
  • #18,015
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:25am Aug 7, 2008 2:25am
Quoting mikkom
It's the trend. I'm not using any indicators because I have tested them extensively and those that make any sense based on testing are based on previous highs or lows (like w% and stochastics) so I can see the peaks myself on the chart too.

Here are some of my charts to see why I think it's downtrend. Last is the long time trendline that is broken (the main reason why I'm so bearish), the next two are shorter timeframe pics.

Hope this helps a bit
I just point this out since it is so clear to myself and my own personal trading style. The reason fundamentaly that EUR/USD has gotten weaker especially in the last week was better spun data from the USA. Weaker data from the Euro zone. An expectation that did not happen that the FED might be hawkish in their statement. They were not. Gold and Oil sold off big time and the terrible news on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack was ignored. The Dow rallied on lower oil prices and the carry trade in Yen came back on big time.

What happens now if Trichet at his 8:30 AM Press Conference sounds hawkish as to future rate hikes ? The FED is now seen to be on hold until 2009 perception wise.

Is what Trichet will say or not say factored into your trend lines. Was the surprise rate hike of the ECB of last month factored in ?

Of course not !

Just think about that as my point of view that works for me.

Good Trading ! A Break Of 1.5485 would be bullish if it occurs awaiting the ECB announcement at 7:45 AM EST
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  • #18,016
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:29am Aug 7, 2008 2:29am
buying at this level, and selling at the higher level of 1.58-1.6 has been working lately , but many are saying that is coming to an end. next week will tell all.
  • #18,017
  • Edited 3:07am Aug 7, 2008 2:31am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting yemupz
I respect the opinions i read here alot and i tend to factor that into my trade decisions. But now, all my charts says EU is going up, but everybody here says down, am getting confused here .
I know i might not be seeing the picture, so i want to ask why you guys still think the EU will continue to fall. Please forgive me guys if this is a dumb question

EDIT: I have only moving averages and pivot points on my chart, maybe my sight is limited!!!
"going up" or "going down" depends what time frame it is, most people here trade the 4H/Daily TF. It's really dangerous and unsettling to factor in other people's commentary into your own trades, trust the charts and only your interpretation of it. If you're not sure, don't trade. If you lose, then record the lesson in a log book as a consideration for future trades. Each lesson learnt and applied reduces the risk in your next trade.

btw, having only MAs and pivots may not be such a bad idea. Candlesticks, trendlines, and support / resistance / pivot levels are the only things that really show what is going on, to facilitate some sort of forecast. Indicators follow the price - not the other way around.
Trade the reaction, not the news!
  • #18,018
  • Edited 2:54am Aug 7, 2008 2:40am | Edited 2:54am
Quoting Warren Forex
Is what Trichet will say or not say factored into your trend lines. Was the surprise rate hike of the ECB of last month factored in ?

Of course not !
Of course it's not! The trendlines are just what they say - TREND lines. They help tell what the current trend is and I never trade against the trend (Well sometimes I try to speculate turning points)

I always look for price action and news as well and anyway if ECB will hike rates, a channel will probably be broken and I'll draw a new one below the rising bottoms.

The charts were just my visualization why the price is going lower and yes, I totally agree on the fundamental view, ultimately the price is going down because bad US news are already factored in the price and bad EU news are not.
  • #18,019
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:58am Aug 7, 2008 2:58am
Quoting twofeet
"going up" or "going down" depends what time frame it is, most people here trade the 4H/Daily TF. It's really dangerous and unsettling to factor in other people's commentary into your own trades, trust the charts and only your interpretation of it. If you're not sure, don't trade. If you lose, then record the lesson in a log book as a consideration of future trade. Each lesson learnt and applied reduces the risk in your next trade.

btw, having only MAs and pivots may not be such a bad idea. Candlesticks, trendlines, and support / resistance / pivot pivot levels are only things that really show what is going on, to facilitate some sort of forecast. Indicators follow the price - not the other way around.
Nicely said there.

I'm currently a little short biased but with the news coming out today all bets are off sort of speak (trade at your own risk!)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd fe fib 8-7-2008....gif Size: 21 KB
  • #18,020
  • Aug 7, 2008 2:59am Aug 7, 2008 2:59am
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