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  • #17,961
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:12pm Aug 6, 2008 1:12pm
My wife too! Problem is, she'd be right about half the time with some of the trades I end up taking.


Quoting Doniboy
My nerves or my wifes?

Just kidding...I would never give my wife the account info. She'd be screaming sell every time I went down $10.00
  • #17,962
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:25pm Aug 6, 2008 1:25pm
better your wives than my husband? Who knows .... he doesn't understand why I use SL...because, he says.... almost 80% the price turn back ... is just a matter of patience....
  • #17,963
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:35pm Aug 6, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting Sole
better your wives than my husband? Who knows .... he doesn't understand why I use SL...because, he says.... almost 80% the price turn back ... is just a matter of patience....
That actually does seem to be true for the week or so that I have been trading Forex (It was never even close to true in the Penny Market). Every time I make a bad trade and lose 20 pips, i hold on for a few hours and end up making a bunch of pips later on. But a quick look over historical charts shows that this is not always the case. IN fact, if I had shorted EUR/USd last August and waited for it to come back around, I'd still be waiting now, a year later, and I'd be down 2000 pips. Or I'd have hit my margin call most likely
  • #17,964
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:01pm Aug 6, 2008 2:01pm
As expected this pair heading south once again and congrats to people whos short this pair..Its no surprise as the resistant is hard to break..Today might be interesting as either this pair will heading north for correction? or just going north or keep continue bearish pattern ..well see it guys..
Ganbatte
  • #17,965
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:02pm Aug 6, 2008 2:02pm
Quoting acumen
If I thought that I'd play poker for a living.

This game is about probabilities.

If it were a guess... like flipping a coin... then my chances would be quite diminished.

For example:

If price is moving down and it hits a .20 level, (for example .5420) statistically speaking I know it will move to the next round level (example .5400) approximately 80% of the time.
I was only kidding. If I thought it was just luck, I would not be doing it. I have studied the idea of pivot points, and a lot of fibonaccia, but it's interesting what you say about the probability of going to .00 from .20. Where did you learn that? Something in print, or observation over time?

Thanks for your insight.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #17,966
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:07pm Aug 6, 2008 2:07pm
Still bearish?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ganbatte
  • #17,967
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:08pm Aug 6, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting SpecialEd
I was only kidding. If I thought it was just luck, I would not be doing it. I have studied the idea of pivot points, and a lot of fibonaccia, but it's interesting what you say about the probability of going to .00 from .20. Where did you learn that? Something in print, or observation over time?

Thanks for your insight.
I began writing down notes when I traded a while back.

The two levels are psych levels.

I noticed the correlation and began analyzing some of my trades.
  • #17,968
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:22pm Aug 6, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting Doniboy
My fear about all this is that I just started my Demo account a week ago. Thus far every day has been like taking candy from a baby. It seems that picking up 5,10, even 20 pips every couple of hours has been extremely easy. In fact I more than doubled my money now in only 5 trading days. I just know that it can't be this easy all the time so I don't want to lull myself into a false sense of security. When I finally get my real account the market will most likely shift in some way to make it a heck of a lot more difficult.
If you've doubled your account in one week you didn't read the piece on money management.

It is a must read for EVERY trader.

http://www.babypips.com/school/money_management.html

If you are trading more than 5% on each trade you will lose.
  • #17,969
  • Aug 6, 2008 3:48pm Aug 6, 2008 3:48pm
Yeah, guilty as charged. I used no money management, and traded at 50:1 leverage, so basically I was going all in on every trade.
I realize that I should be trading more realistically to get good practice, so that's what I will be doing now.
  • #17,970
  • Aug 6, 2008 4:07pm Aug 6, 2008 4:07pm
It's time for EU to go up before go down again as we have some potential good news for EU.
  • #17,971
  • Aug 6, 2008 4:33pm Aug 6, 2008 4:33pm
Hi

This is just to introduce myself to the thread.
I'm just learning from you guys at the moment. I hope I can be of help to other in the near future as you are to me now.

So, what should we expect for tomorrow?.

If I'm understandig your reasoning right, we have:

A strong downtrend + Bad German numbers = EUR Bearish
High Probability of holding interest rate + near strong support (1.53) = EUR Bullish

So I conclude (and help me here):
Interest rate hold or rise --> Eur goes to touch the 1.53 support and then goes up at least to 1.566 (50% fibo from 1.603).
Interest rate cut --> Eur goes through 1.53 down to next strong support at 1.5 or 1.49

What do you think ? Obviously this is a very simplistic view because of my lack of technical+fundamental knowledge, but could those be right conclusions?

By the way, I'm holding an hedge from 1.568. So I need a perfect timing for close the short at support (1.54?, 1.53?, ???) and get 150 pips retracement for breakeven. So, any help here I'll really appreciate.

Regards
MaSilva
  • #17,972
  • Aug 6, 2008 4:40pm Aug 6, 2008 4:40pm
Here is a good upside target. A modest 68 Pips.
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  • #17,973
  • Aug 6, 2008 5:36pm Aug 6, 2008 5:36pm
Long positions are up by 13.2% since yesterday in the EURUSD, nearly 63% of traders are long

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Tr...032760077.html
  • #17,974
  • Aug 6, 2008 5:54pm Aug 6, 2008 5:54pm
Mr. Clouds,

Could you please explain to a newbie what does it mean? If 63% of traders are long, it means the EUR will go high?

Sorry about this question, but again, living and learning..

Thanks,
Quoting Clouds
Long positions are up by 13.2% since yesterday in the EURUSD, nearly 63% of traders are long

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Tr...032760077.html
  • #17,975
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:07pm Aug 6, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting jeam256
Mr. Clouds,

Could you please explain to a newbie what does it mean? If 63% of traders are long, it means the EUR will go high?

Sorry about this question, but again, living and learning..

Thanks,
if 63% are long but the 37% short got bigger size....how?
  • #17,976
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:09pm Aug 6, 2008 6:09pm
Quoting jeam256
Mr. Clouds,

Could you please explain to a newbie what does it mean? If 63% of traders are long, it means the EUR will go high?

Sorry about this question, but again, living and learning..

Thanks,
it kind of explains it on the page, i dont really know, just something i read
  • #17,977
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:25pm Aug 6, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting Clouds
Long positions are up by 13.2% since yesterday in the EURUSD, nearly 63% of traders are long

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Tr...032760077.html

It does not say "63% of traders" it says "RETAIL TRADERS".

I hope this helps, but think about who the market makers are. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but most retail traders have very little effect on the market since their orders are matched against one another on their brokers site and 90% + are going to fail anyway, sounds like with good risk management you could trade against that indicator. The broker only has to hedge when there is a hint of risk and this shouldn't have much of an effect on the market?
Redefining Reality
  • #17,978
  • Edited 6:41pm Aug 6, 2008 6:38pm | Edited 6:41pm
Quoting piptechnician
It does not say "63% of traders" it says "RETAIL TRADERS".

I hope this helps, but think about who the market makers are. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but most retail traders have very little effect on the market since their orders are matched against one another on their brokers site and 90% + are going to fail anyway, sounds like with good risk management you could trade against that indicator. The broker only has to hedge when there is a hint of risk and this shouldn't have much of an effect on the market?

I rarely read anyone elses opinion and when I saw the first post about an article saying traders were long, I broke down. Broke my rules and looked. But I didn't really read it because I know better.

Ask yourself questions, the author, "
Written by Antonio Sousa, Chief Strategist" Who is this person, who does this person work for, and how does the company this person work for make their money, would that author have any bias based upon answers to these questions?

P.S. I do read the opinions of you all who post in this forum one of you might be managing a billion dollar fund, just trying to figure out who.
Redefining Reality
  • #17,979
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:41pm Aug 6, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting piptechnician
I rarely read anyone elses opinion and when I saw the first post about an article saying traders were long, I broke down. Broke my rules and looked. But I didn't really read it because I know better.

Ask yourself questions, the author, "
Written by Antonio Sousa, Chief Strategist" Who is this person, who does this person work for, and how does the company this person work for make their money, would that author have any bias based upon answers to these questions?
Well,, not sure it matters if they have a bias or not, sometimes they are right and sometimes not, just makes for interesting read. I don't let it influence what I normally already think though, but it helps me get views
  • #17,980
  • Aug 6, 2008 6:49pm Aug 6, 2008 6:49pm
Maybe 63% of retail traders believe eurusd has bottom out , and at lowest end of channel and time to long this pair
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