Hi fellow Kiwis. Following thread as mainly trade EUR/USD
- #17,884
- Aug 6, 2008 5:40am Aug 6, 2008 5:40am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Happiness can only come from within | 1,080 Posts
I don't feel confident making a trade either long nor short at the moment. We are still too close to the end of the previous day's close for my liking 
- #17,885
- Aug 6, 2008 5:51am Aug 6, 2008 5:51am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Live long and have fun :) | 1,386 Posts
On the path to Enrichment.
- #17,887
- Aug 6, 2008 6:12am Aug 6, 2008 6:12am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,130 Posts
Twitter: Forexlivetrade - Buy: AFFI.CPH ISIN: DK0015966592 - target 12 DKK
my hours of sleep are all messed up (6.15am here)
Looking at a big move in EURUSD
The falling wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower.
... thanks for your view, I guess I'm gonna move my SL and TP for something more reasonablenew TP: 1.5450
new SL: 1.5492 (BE)
... /$ -> LONG
- #17,890
- Aug 6, 2008 6:31am Aug 6, 2008 6:31am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Live long and have fun :) | 1,386 Posts
On the path to Enrichment.
- #17,891
- Aug 6, 2008 6:41am Aug 6, 2008 6:41am
- | Joined Apr 2008 | Status: You never know | 1,306 Posts
"FALLING-WEDGE = BULLISH WEDGE" ??... a break below 15440 will make it fail and this pair would drop harder
new TP: 1.5450
new SL: 1.5492 (BE)
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...g_wedge_revers
Check this one out.
Expected the unexpected
- #17,895
- Edited 7:31am Aug 6, 2008 7:06am | Edited 7:31am
hello everyone!!
Add, I'm using the same strategy combined with PP, support/resistance (the range thing you said I call it a "channel"), MACD, LaguerreRSI and Stochastic (this last three only in bigger timeframes such as 4H, 1D, 1W)
about A, B, C.. I saw it in a strategy named SureFire by a guy called Mark McRae.
A = Fib 100.0%
B = Fib 0.0%
if:
A<B; C = Lowest Low between 21.6% and 61.8% (we expect a bounce up)
A>B; C = Highest High between 21.6% and 61.8% (we expect a bounce down)
Objectives??
Obj_1: C + 0.618*(B-A)
Obj_2: B + C - A
Obj_3: C + 1.618*(B-A)
(more details here @ http://www.surefire-forex-trading.com/)
by the way... I agree with your analysis, gone short @ 1.5492. In my charts I have like 3 or 4 ABC's like you but I'm sharing the last one (considering 4H).
A = 1.5575
B = 1.5454
C = 1.5517 (candle closed above daily PP but failed to close above Fib 38.2)
OBJ_1 = 1.54422, (which is my TP.. if it keeps going on, 1.5370 but that one is crazy IMO)
SL -> 1.5570 (just above Daily EMA(100))
best trading wishes!
Interesting strategy MaZae though somewhat different but nice.
Here's some of what I do:
I combine at least two types of fibs; the Fibonacci Retracement for current s/r and market target cycles along with the Fibonacci Expansion to plot ABC swing points for easy TP targets.
For a swing to be valid for trading it must have at least a small retrace to the 38.2/61.8 fib lines or about 30%/50% retracement. Let PA determine where to place a fib and look for setups that will at the very least secure 3x the spread in profit.
To find the market cycles I walk the Fib tool from historical ranges or swing High & Low points until a (138.2) fib extension line is perfectly tapped or nearly tapped (margin within error for a tap/pierce = -/+ 10 pips off or 20 Pips off for cross currency pairs like GbpJpy). Only after a (138.2) Fib extension line is hit, the Fib tool will be walked/re-adjusted to the candle that tapped it. As that becomes the new swing high/low and price will go after the next (138.2) Fib extension line.
Using two fibs on an hourly chart, one will be placed on a major range and the other on a current minor swing. If an outer (100.0) or (0.0) Fib line is pierced price will more likely go to the cycle target line (138.2) in the direction of that pierce, but it will likely first retrace a bit to retest the nearby opposite fib S/R lines. If price is not reacting to a fib it is placed wrong. I check the weekly but use the daily and hourly chart for setups, then possible the 15min/5min charts for tighter entry if needed.
Anyways, I'm sure this is probably getting long/confusing so I'll stop. But I basically combine some of what Bobokus, Skunny, DazFx, and James16 have taught at this forum along with some other spicy stuff that works nicely like retracements after pivot points (not to be confused with pivot lines)...
Fib Cycles - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60272
Fib S/R - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767
Fib ABC Points - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=75922
- #17,897
- Aug 6, 2008 7:12am Aug 6, 2008 7:12am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Happiness can only come from within | 1,080 Posts
Trading Date 8.6.2008
Strength above 5487, weakness below.
Look for directional changes and take profit at target levels
http://www.tradinginthenow.com/chart...usd%208.6.2008
Bogdus
- #17,900
- Edited 7:47am Aug 6, 2008 7:36am | Edited 7:47am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Happiness can only come from within | 1,080 Posts
I'm looking to scalp for 3pips. I am currently Long.
It looks bad at the moment BUT, I see on the 30min chart a doji and basically two hammers. I notice that the second hammer does not have an upper shadow.
Also as I look at the GBP/USD I expect the GBP to go strengthen against the USD therefore weakening the USD.
Also the USD/JPY appears to have a bit of an uper shadow in the previous candles.
The USD/CHF has a lot of selling pressure in the form of upper shadows on prior candles.
Anyway, I could be completely wrong here but that's what I'm thinking at the moment.
edit: my consolation prize is that at least I exited the trade without losing too much...and I've gained some pips now that I've gone short
