EUR/USD Trading Room

It was not my intention to get into a sizing and risk management discussion. I just think it is tough to make an adequate income with a small account. I should have said it differently. I agree with you.

And I agree with you when you say it is tough to make an adequate income with a small account

GROUP HUG!



So, FOMC is holding on and even one hawk in the camp, interesting.

I find it difficult to see how the Fed can raise its target rate while at the same time extending emergency lending until January '09 (at least). I think bias is shifting towards tightening, but we may not actually see any moves for a while still...

Here's what I've got on the EURUSD on a position basis. My NOW Pivot changes most everyday.

And since we are basically trading the US Equities once the North American session opens (which makes me sick), I included the S&P levels also.

My mind is somewhere else today.... I changed the EURUSD chart. It was an old one. Basically I see strength if we move above 5487, continued weakness below. Watch for directional changes at the extreme levels posted.


http://www.tradinginthenow.com/chart...usd%208.6.2008


http://www.tradinginthenow.com/chart...208.6.2008.jpg

What is it saying about the market?

As B Gross has pointed out the coordinated efforts of Paulson and Cox are designed to;

(1) prevent a market run on the price of bank and investment bank stock until there is enough time to re-flate US housing.

(2) to ultimately re-capitalize mortgage lenders Fannie/Freddie (CBO points out GSEs barely solvent when assets marked at current market prices).

Also according to Gross the real problem lies in how to make 120 million US homes stop going down in price and start to get the price going up again.

In the context of yesterday's FOMC statement (1 disenting vote vs mkt expectation of 2 or possibly 3) the overall picture looks pretty anemic and the numbers coming out of UK and EZ also anemic, so overall it's a bit difficult to see why equities are running up........or for how long?.........but, then again if OIL prices continue to fall.....I think I will be watching today's inventory numbers and looking that way as a probable catalyst for equity price direction.

Has EU finally bottomed out for this week or do we see more downtrend?

With Gold and Oil falling rapidly giving strength to $, where do we stop to rest?

I don't know but your pivots were seriously disrespected!

Daily and weekly never matter much, its the monthly and yearly which define the actual trend.

today we see sharply fall all pair against USD.
whether this is intervention in financial markets ??

This post explains all
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=99761

Some of the guys here make some real good posts.

Surprise increase in New Home Sales, drove the dollar across the board.

Interestingly, sub-prime betting was the reason for the whole mess up in the first quarter of this year.

It seems that for the time being the fall in EU could have stopped, or this could also be due to weekend closing.

Whatever it is, the dollar is surely bound to get stronger if the democrats come to power in the US.

Care to explain?

the past 8 years havee ben a humongous heist byt the military-industrial complex, and the oil barons. it's quite impressive. I mean, 0.5 trillion annual profit by a single corporation? and all the real estate related write-downs? you know, someone made a ton of money on those "bad" loans. now the taxpayer fills the gap, isn't it beautiful? I wish I was playing on the same turf as those carpetbaggers...

a democratic president in a democratic majority congress can't just go on the same way. Even a republican president in a democratic majority congress would have a much tougher time because congress is gonna cry about all of this stuff at every turn.

everyone knows that big oil and big defense contractors, not to forget fannie and freddie, have deep-rooted connections on capitol hill, and are very good at lobbying congress to pass policy that is in their interest. GWB has got to be handed a toast for establishing the only true dynasty of the 20th century. personally Im not too fond of any of those guys abut whatever... I know none of them in person

the profits of the past years speak for themselves. the budgetary debacle is now left to be cleaned up by whoever comes next. party is over. smart money knows that.

unfortunately, in 2 years time, another shoe will drop, in form of excessive health care expenditures: medicaid and medicare will be the #1 topic. and the budgetary effects of paying for all of that stuff, not to mention social security and the pensions no one can afford...oh my. the pundits are gonna have a field day.

ah well, don't want to sound too depressing. its not happening to morrow, but soon enough.

i never bothered to explain, got carried away with random missive...

as mentioned in prev. post: if oil becomes less of a bubble due to policy shifts in washington, it means dollar has to rise some.

paired with the expectation that although we see some decoupling of US vs. other economies (most notably china), EU zone does in fact reel a little from the US+GB financial crisis. thus, economy weakens, no interest rate increase (which was hoped for and already priced in), and rumors about intervention al together... makes for nice drop.

question is how long until the market forgets all of this and starts looking at the US deficit and housing market, jobs, exports?

the oil game is probably over. i wonder where it will settle: a tad above or a tad below 100/bbl ? anyone wanna specualte?

Two replies:
I both don't think as a commodity it will "ever" settle and I also hope that nothing on any market ever does settle.
We need movement to have a market; we need an active market to trade.
And as long as there's a market, in turn there is an interest to move it.

I hope this game is NEVER over

It would take an entire thread to explain all the concepts you got wrong in your rant and I don't want to ruin this thread with politics but you might be interested to know that the democrats have controlled both the house and the senate since 2006.

Given the aggressive sell-off we witnessed last week, i am looking forward to seeing a retrace to 5464 if possible.

We are currently around 377 pips above 2007 close, and 4967 was 2007 peak.

Should this peak be broken then we can expect lower down to 4516, though the daily charts do agree.

Phil, what is your idea, do we see some kind of retrace after this sell-off or we continue?

Well sometimes the wait n watch policy does pay dividends.

While daily is still strong down, 4967 is being tested yet again. Unless 4H confirms, there is nothing here in terms of retrace.

Starting Monday EU goes up as expected towards the weekly fib line, finds resistance and drops down to find support on the monthly fib line.

Now if this monthly fib line holds then we can see a further trend up to test 5134 resistance area.