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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #41
  • Aug 4, 2008 3:48pm Aug 4, 2008 3:48pm
Let's take a look at today's US Session.

Notice how price kissed the .5600 level several times prior to the 'meat' of the US Session.

Then - it gave us one warning prior to moving up again. It touches the .5600 level again - then right through it to .5620. (R2 and Psych level)

Also - take a look at what happened when price moved back to .5600. Hit it, retrace, then right to .5780. (I missed this trade - I took a scalp that hit .5600 then headed to lunch and missed the move down)
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  • #42
  • Aug 5, 2008 10:58am Aug 5, 2008 10:58am
Cable provided two winning trades today. The white arrows signify entries and exits. Nothing much to say really. Pretty straightforward ins and outs. I had another earlier trade on Eur/usd, but my trading platform got a bit of a gremlin or something, so I ended up with a -5 pip trade, and I consider myself lucky, because I hadn't had the time to put the SL in before it went tits up!

Happily, the other two didn't suffer any problems. Total of 31 pips in profit. Minus the earlier 5, and the result is 26 pips. Not bad, but it does worry me when things go wrong with the platforms. I suppose it's to be expected when one's on line, but it's still a worry.
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  • #43
  • Aug 5, 2008 7:50pm Aug 5, 2008 7:50pm
Hi guys! This is my first time on this thread.

If I'm not mistaken, you are using pivot SR and midpoint levels with psyche levels (1.xx00 / 1.xx50). And your trade triggers are at bounces on confluences. Your exits are at pivot levels. Is that right?

I'm new to forex trading and I'm studying pivots and candle patterns. I concentrate on GBPUSD only. I'd like to share ideas. Is it okey if I join in your discussions?
Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #44
  • Aug 5, 2008 7:56pm Aug 5, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting fx1dr3r
Hi guys! This is my first time on this thread.

If I'm not mistaken, you are using pivot SR and midpoint levels with psyche levels (1.xx00 / 1.xx50). And your trade triggers are at bounces on confluences. Your exits are at pivot levels. Is that right?

I'm new to forex trading and I'm studying pivots and candle patterns. I concentrate on GBPUSD only. I'd like to share ideas. Is it okey if I join in your discussions?
Exactly.

Yes.

share away.

EV and the others on this thread are great to interact with.

Welcome.
  • #45
  • Aug 5, 2008 7:58pm Aug 5, 2008 7:58pm
I'm strictly on the e/u.
  • #46
  • Aug 5, 2008 8:17pm Aug 5, 2008 8:17pm
Thanks acumen!

I have looked at fib correction and expansion levels of the previous day's trend. If there was a strong trend on the previous day. Prices seems to react at these levels more when there is a confluence with pivots. But I haven't studied this idea on a wider historical data.

Do you use fibs with your strategy too?

It's just my observation.
Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #47
  • Aug 6, 2008 1:34am Aug 6, 2008 1:34am
Prices reacted as it touched a confluence of psych level 1.9550 and the trendline.

Could this create another high if the central pivot @ 1.9562 is broken? We'll see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #48
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:00am Aug 6, 2008 2:00am
has anyone taken a long trade in E/U? I'm in @1.5504
  • #49
  • Aug 6, 2008 2:03am Aug 6, 2008 2:03am
rather @ 1.5501 have a tight stop around 25 pips
  • #50
  • Aug 6, 2008 4:28am Aug 6, 2008 4:28am
Quoting bksujal
rather @ 1.5501 have a tight stop around 25 pips
Did you take that trade, bk? I see a spinning top touching the Midpoint at 1.5515, then price reversing all the way down to around 1.5473, after a brief stop at the main pivot line. I've marked 1.5473 on my chart. Coincidentally, it just happens to be the midpoint between the main pivot line and the main midpoint!!!! I'm not claiming that it's significant, mate, but it makes one think, wouldn't you say?
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  • #51
  • Aug 6, 2008 4:33am Aug 6, 2008 4:33am
ev,
which time do you use for pivot ?
My PP for EU today is @ 1,5488.

Anyway, i took this trade:
In H1 you see a nice S/R-level, so i waited until the resistance was confirmed on H1.

My entry then on M5 after price comes back to the sp @ 5500.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Donīt live for working, but work for living.
  • #52
  • Aug 6, 2008 4:55am Aug 6, 2008 4:55am
Good to see that acumen's thread is attracting new posters.

My chart is further on from yours, mate, and shows it definitely made a new high for the day after piercing the 1.9580 midpoint, which incidentally, is also one of acumen's psych points. A quite dramatic drop after that, down to around 1.9526.....a support line from late last night. As I type this, price is reversing nicely of that line.

The white cross indicates what would have been a good place to go short as price crossed the 1.9550 psych line. Perhaps acumen would be kind enough to give his opinion as to where exactly HE would have entered this trade? What I'm trying to say is: when do you take the decision that the trade could be valid, as opposed to price action prior to a pull-back? Do you wait for any possible pull-back? Or just jump in?

I hope that makes sense. I'd be grateful for any opinions on this.
Cheers
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  • #53
  • Aug 6, 2008 5:25am Aug 6, 2008 5:25am
Quoting matsf
ev,
which time do you use for pivot ?
My PP for EU today is @ 1,5488.

Anyway, i took this trade:
In H1 you see a nice S/R-level, so i waited until the resistance was confirmed on H1.

My entry then on M5 after price comes back to the sp @ 5500.
I use FXI Pivots, mate, and I just leave it to automatically change at midnight here in the UK. Yes, I notice a slight difference between your pivot point and mine, but it's nothing too dramatic.

That was a nice trade on the eurusd, mate. I'm assuming that you entered the short trade ABOVE the main Pivot Point? Was that your first target? If so, you must have been pleasantly surprised by how far it dropped!!
  • #54
  • Aug 6, 2008 5:32am Aug 6, 2008 5:32am
Thanks eyevoltage.

If it were me, I would place a sell stop order at or below the psych level 1.9550 since it showed to be a good support today on two earlier occasions. Also since there is a possibility of a trendline break (which actually did happen). And what seems to be a breakdown near the apex of a symmetrical triangle formation.

What do you guys think?
Attached Image
Life is a journey... So is trading.
  • #55
  • Aug 6, 2008 5:48am Aug 6, 2008 5:48am
........plus, I hadn't taken into account the triangle, which does alter one's perspective a little. I usually try and spot any formations such as triangles, flags, wedges etc., but I missed this one.

Thanks for your input.
  • #56
  • Aug 6, 2008 5:58am Aug 6, 2008 5:58am
hey eyevoltage i closed that trade at +1 as i saw my entry was wrong what I didn't consider when I traded was the psychological number which was only 1 pip below my entry.
  • #57
  • Aug 6, 2008 7:04am Aug 6, 2008 7:04am
Quoting bksujal
hey eyevoltage i closed that trade at +1 as i saw my entry was wrong what I didn't consider when I traded was the psychological number which was only 1 pip below my entry.
Sometimes, it's easy to forget the blindingly obvious. Happens to us all. Still, one pip's better than none!
  • #58
  • Aug 6, 2008 7:29am Aug 6, 2008 7:29am
Quoting eyevoltage
I use FXI Pivots, mate, and I just leave it to automatically change at midnight here in the UK. Yes, I notice a slight difference between your pivot point and mine, but it's nothing too dramatic.

That was a nice trade on the eurusd, mate. I'm assuming that you entered the short trade ABOVE the main Pivot Point? Was that your first target? If so, you must have been pleasantly surprised by how far it dropped!!
Thanks for your info.
I entered above pivot, right.
As price didnīt break my pivot i expected it to brake the next time,
so my target was to break the pivot and take the move as far as possible.
Donīt live for working, but work for living.
  • #59
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:42am Aug 8, 2008 5:42am
The eurusd formed a nice triangle pattern over a period of a couple of hours, resulting in an impressive break-out to the downside. Where would you enter? As soon as it breaks the triangle? Or after it drops below the .50 psych level? If I'd been around to take this opportunity, then I'd have waited for the price to drop below the .50 psych line. Note how price was halted at the fib line and started pulling back. It'll be interesting to see if it makes it down to the next psych level, and then possibly S3. Time will tell!
Attached Image
  • #60
  • Aug 8, 2008 5:56am Aug 8, 2008 5:56am
Quoting eyevoltage
The eurusd formed a nice triangle pattern over a period of a couple of hours, resulting in an impressive break-out to the downside. Where would you enter? As soon as it breaks the triangle? Or after it drops below the .50 psych level? If I'd been around to take this opportunity, then I'd have waited for the price to drop below the .50 psych line. Note how price was halted at the fib line and started pulling back. It'll be interesting to see if it makes it down to the next psych level, and then possibly S3. Time will tell!
I did open my position at the break of 1.5141 (former low) @ 1.5140, took profit @ 1.5120 for half the position and moved the SL to BE

Actually did that twice. Earlier today at the break of 1.5193 (low from 3:15 CET last night) opened a position @ 1.5191, took profit after 20 pips @ 1.5171 for half the position, second half running free. Stops for the two remaining positions is 1.5140 right now.

Reasons for both trades:

Below the Pivot Point - so looking for shorts only, entries right below psych levels with enough room to the next resistance (pivot / psych level)

If you look at the chart, I did the same yesterday @ 2:30 pm CET, but took profit for both positions. First after 20 pips, second after 40. Looking back, would have been better to let the second half run, as I did today. Would have.....could have......should have. I didnīt, so only thing I can do, is try to learn from that.
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