EUR/USD Trading Room

I had a good laugh at that one...

Still you have to understand that reading Bloomberg does not constitute fundamental analysis, just as looking at RSI does not constitute technical analysis. If you read 10 different technicians' views, you will also get a lot of contradictions. All these contradicting views are not only a result of different people performing different analyses, but they are actually vital to the proper functioning of the market. Yes, fundamental analysts often contradict each other, but the exact same is true of the technical guys. This is not just a flaw of FA or TA, it is a necessary characteristic of the market. You could not possibly expect 10 different analysts from 10 different firms to all agree on the exact path the Euro will take over the coming months, regardless of what type of analysis they use.

I have to agree with you about the extremely vague language some of these guys use. A lot of them water down their statements so much that they become completely useless (like the one I quoted above), and the FA guys are probably more guilty of that than the TA guys.

Still, your crusade against FA seems like a bit of a double standard. You could just as easily lead such a crusade against TA. The fact is that they are both flawed, and they always will be, because those very flaws are the necessary pre-condition of a well functioning market. The market thrives on contradicting views.

Well I'd argue that you'd be hard pressed to find someone saying downtrend when they see higher lows and higher highs, saying that support held when price closes 50 points below it, and saying the EURUSD looks weak because it's rising.

On the other hand, you WILL find 50 gazillion interpretations of one and the same news release if you just ask enough people or one guy saying that's a recession for me and the next one saying everythings peachy.

But even then, and moving on,

the point really is that TA gives a clear exploitable opportunity with limited risk vs bigger profit, no matter how flawed it may or not be vs nothing to go by on FA other than if it changes, then something's changed and it was wrong.

One is just another s/l hit in an endless line of trades within a (hopefully) positive expectancy system, the other is, well, that's the thing, the other is just a lot of words initially.

But sure, just as you can blame someone who draws wildly inaccurate charts/TLs and other interpretations of TA(or uses a set of indicators that makes you go unghh), so you can say oh my god, what is that FA guy thinking.

But connecting two lows seems infinitely easier and more instantly verifyable against a set criteria (connect-da-dots, dude!) than judging the state of an economy and the world.

That'd go/come around to the issue of "use" and useability again.


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Edit - waitaminit. Er, I seem to have forgotten to mention that one other thing that's vitally important here in all the hectic of the "one side vs the other" moment:
You're also not supposed to be listening to OTHERS in the first place.

It really shows I haven't been eating my meals regularly lately
Analysts(, regardless whether they draw TA or FA pictures,) that are not YOU, are not supposed to form the base of information from which YOU trade from.
It's supposed to be yourself and your direct information => your chart.

And, perhaps, and at the most, 1-2 simple things anyone would get to know and understand. Wanted to write 1-2 lines about this over in the TFTMBS thread.
Stuff like War, Subprime, Dot-Com bust, a countrywide default on debt, the discovery of a perpetuum mobile or something like that
Large scale, game changing, everything permeating events. Not this small-small fodder that everyone keeps pretending moves the next 30 pips on a currency. Greater bollocks one cannot find.
If you want to me to acknowledge any realism factor of FA, then it's that stuff. Rocky mountains, Grand Canyon dimension. Not pebble => stormy ocean day-to-day FF calendar bore. No offense to the calendar.
No trees were hurt in it's making, I'm sure

I am still long from 5665.

At this point, I am going to try to continue to hold long into Europe on Thursday and look for a surge up/change into the North American session on Friday. Or if we somehow were to move up and hit 1.6235 I would take a large portion of my position off.

Then I would expect we may build value over the next two weeks so I will look to define a range and trade the long side out of the bottom for possibly a couple weeks before another leg up.

The other scenario is a move down for a couple weeks. Just playing it by ear at this point and trying to have a shell plan to trade from. I do think we will see a very volatile time Thursday Europe into Friday NA.

Good luck all.

Good advice steelhead...

I am still looking for the European session tonight into NA tommorrow to surge. I only hope it is up like I am planning.

Good luck all.

Any one here interested in disussing CHF ? I can see a great potential for the USD/CHF and even bigger for GBP/CHF in the medium term, 2-3 months.

If anyone is interested we can share thoughts, fundamentals and charts.

Why not do that in a CHF thread instead of the EUR thread?

couldnt find a CHF thread hence the post here - anyways started a new thread now

just wanted to share a trade that looks really promising due to its risk-reward:

shorted eur-usd @ 1.5870

sl @ 1.59

sp @ 1.5750

hi iiivb, what was the basis of your analysis?
thanks
Dan

Your post represented a fair comment regarding this rate with an FA approach, IMO. But I've problems with statements that sound like guarantee-scenarios, I must admit. Call me a picky person, but if that sentence had included "probability/high-low chance-of" instead of "will not", I would had the idea/impression that I discussed what an open-minded person. And I'm fully open for that you are, I just had the opposite impression from that sentence, misunderstand me correctly, I do like to discuss with other people here on FF with different (trading)approach than me.

I would assume that no-one knows where this pair would trend, and for me I don't care. I have no bias. If price closes above 1.6, I'll ride high and the opposite if we close below 1.53, roughly speaking.

Although, I think we safely can agree on that this pair is in range-modus or should we say where price-stay-the-most-time-at-modus

You guys buying the Euro or selling it? I am buying pretty aggressively today.

Sigh.

If only there were a way to detect the current trend and then trade in that direction.

What time frame do you trade?

Trading is changing. Longer term trends are difficult to trade for accounts that are not large in my opinion. These are difficult times...no doubt about it.

I know the general view has changed on the EURO, but I think it is heading up. At least I would say that there is so much indecision in the market(s) that we are not heading down hard. Clear as mud.

Sure hope you have a good a paddle cause I think the current is runnning against you...

Can you explain why someone with a smaller account would have trouble trading a long term trend?

I have bought an outboard motor. Big one.

I wonder if Fed will take rates down to 1.?

I just meant the equity swings are so vicious and the drawdowns can be hard with a small account. Hard to sit thru them when you are not Warren Buffet, Bill G or George.

Now that we have enough granularity with modern brokers, money management is capable of being determined in relative size(even on small sizes) vs absolute.

Total, absolute account size does not matter.

Either you can or you can't cope with swings, but it's not the account's fault.