The VaR (value at risk) is starting to decrease. The VaR is a coincident indicator, it responds as the market moves. Volatility is still below the daily average, and the mean volatility is 124 pips today. It is a decreasing function from a peaking between June 2 and 9. The current sell off is very orderly. I prefer to sell into orderly markets. If you prefer high volatility you might look into cable yen.
- #17,702
- Aug 5, 2008 4:36am Aug 5, 2008 4:36am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Live long and have fun :) | 1,386 Posts
On the path to Enrichment.
No, there shouldn't be any rate difference according to all expectations. But we broke a year old trendline, daily 100 ema and 55 and during the previous 3 days hardly had any retracement as other counter USD pairs kept falling. Everything says down.
- #17,704
- Aug 5, 2008 4:46am Aug 5, 2008 4:46am
Morning all,
Sometimes a picture tells you more then a thousand words...
Seldom seen a more beautiful example of two double top patterns in the EUR Daily chart...
I'm bearish..with a Target of min 1.54
As always..Just my 2 Cents...
...Morning all...Life can be great....
- #17,706
- Edited 5:11am Aug 5, 2008 4:52am | Edited 5:11am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Live long and have fun :) | 1,386 Posts
Edit: On the way to 53 though, we could indeed get a retrace, the bearish move is somewhat overextended and other pairs could use a break. We could go to say 450 today, rebound to near 56 and down big time again.
On the path to Enrichment.
Yup, you were right man. Now that we're all in agreement I think a test of 53 sounds like an almost definite too. And if we break closer to 52... Watch out, 4750 or below is next stop..
Edit: On the way to 53 though, we could indeed get a retrace, the bearish move is somewhat overextended and other pairs could use a break. We could go to say 450 today, rebound to near 56 and down big time again.
- #17,720
- Aug 5, 2008 5:52am Aug 5, 2008 5:52am
- | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Happiness can only come from within | 1,080 Posts
I am a psychic.
