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EURUSD

  • #17,661
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:00pm Aug 4, 2008 11:00pm
Quoting Russell
You might find this helpful. http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=99120
last time g8 met, they were going fix oil prices, well, looks like they had a talk with the software programmers that worked on oil price calculation. maybe they think they can fix two birds with one stone and got the money programmer to fix the software also. they just changed for every 2 buys for EU, that equals 1 sell. or something like that.
  • #17,662
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:03pm Aug 4, 2008 11:03pm
Thanks all for your answer...
  • #17,663
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:06pm Aug 4, 2008 11:06pm
anyone else see the massive negative divergence on cci on weekly chart? i was wondering if price would possibly retest the wkly pivot before heading down, but certainly looks like 1.5300 is next in line.
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  • #17,664
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:35pm Aug 4, 2008 11:35pm
RALFIH

First understand:

Interest Rate Differentials and Exchange Rates

very simple overview

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/Multimedia/Parity.html

then take a look at purchasing power parity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity

then check out the ISLM model

The following exercise lets you study the effects of monetary and fiscal policy (i.e. changes in government spending and/or in income taxes) in the IS-LM model.

http://www.fgn.unisg.ch/eurmacro/tutor/islm.html

you will find this clarifies matters
  • #17,665
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:36pm Aug 4, 2008 11:36pm
Even at this hour, the dollar continues to gain strength ...
  • #17,666
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:39pm Aug 4, 2008 11:39pm
5515 is the 2n pivot point
  • #17,667
  • Aug 4, 2008 11:43pm Aug 4, 2008 11:43pm
Look at the USD/ CAD go...it's been on a tear
  • #17,668
  • Aug 5, 2008 12:45am Aug 5, 2008 12:45am
Morning folks

Just woke up saw the chart and had to place a long I wouldn't be surprised at all if I screw it up, but then I bet I'll make it back in a few minutes on the fall below 55 and then some.. Good stuff

EDIT: lol That was quick!
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,669
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:20am Aug 5, 2008 1:20am
Quoting Jurrasic
Morning folks

Just woke up saw the chart and had to place a long I wouldn't be surprised at all if I screw it up, but then I bet I'll make it back in a few minutes on the fall below 55 and then some.. Good stuff

EDIT: lol That was quick!
Morning!
Jurrasic,Whether correctly I have understood?
You wish to tell this descent only confirmation of ascending movement?
  • #17,670
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:30am Aug 5, 2008 1:30am
Let's do this to the dollar this week.
Attached Image
  • #17,671
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:41am Aug 5, 2008 1:41am
Quoting Andrey
Morning!
Jurrasic,Whether correctly I have understood?
You wish to tell this descent only confirmation of ascending movement?
I scalped like 10 pips and closed. Now on the current dip I longed again and left it on a separate sub-account (as you can't trade both way on Oanda). If I'm wrong I'll loose 40 pips on a small sized order and get it back easy by shorting below 55, if it goes my way I'll look for at least 57. Can't really loose with this in the end as I see it. If you're asking about probabilities, I'd say most is down.
Quoting Clouds
Let's do this to the dollar this week.
Attachment
LOL Cool monkeys But as it looks we might just do that to the Euro soon
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,672
  • Aug 5, 2008 1:53am Aug 5, 2008 1:53am
april fools' the us economy really sucks.
  • #17,673
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:01am Aug 5, 2008 2:01am
Quoting Clouds
april fools' the us economy really sucks.
Maybe Though euro economy's starting to look equally bad soon as it seems. Maybe it's a big head and shoulders we got on the charts.. and maybe it's not. Anyway I got an order standing for a short right below 55 as if it gets there I wouldn't be surprised at all to see like a 50+ pip 5m candle.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,674
  • Edited 2:21am Aug 5, 2008 2:03am | Edited 2:21am
What goes up - must come down.

I guess cartel is just taking profits from those who have gone all long a couple of weeks ago on the wave of 2.00 HERE I COME.

I would be very happy with every single pip below the current price as it would let me close my hedge with ugly swap.

But I am not expecting miracles.

EUROTRASH is also a valid point, yet US banks seem to fail on a daily basis now.
Gravity always wins
  • #17,675
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:47am Aug 5, 2008 2:47am
The price broke the long term trendline I mentioned yesterday. If it keeps going lower then this might be the turning point for eurusd.

One thing to think about is that it might be that bad US news are already included at the price but bad EU news are not. So every bad euro news brings eur down but bad US news are just what people are expecting anyway.
  • #17,676
  • Aug 5, 2008 2:51am Aug 5, 2008 2:51am
Looks like it's bye bye euro (cable, aussie and the other dudes too)... Mr. Dollar is in the house.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #17,677
  • Aug 5, 2008 3:01am Aug 5, 2008 3:01am
Quoting Jurrasic
Looks like it's bye bye euro (cable, aussie and the other dudes too)... Mr. Dollar is in the house.
it was hard for me to admit that i was wrong but i agree with usd bulls now.. my new targets

eurusd -> 1.50
aussie -> 0.90
usdjpy -> 111
oil -> 20 dollars ... (just kiddin' here.. haha )


i need some sleep, good night everyone
... /$ -> LONG
  • #17,678
  • Aug 5, 2008 3:05am Aug 5, 2008 3:05am
Quoting MaZae
it was hard for me to admit that i was wrong but i agree with usd bulls now.. my new targets

eurusd -> 1.50
aussie -> 0.90
usdjpy -> 111
oil -> 20 dollars ... (just kiddin' here.. haha )


i need some sleep, good night everyone
careful, it may be a mirage
  • #17,679
  • Aug 5, 2008 3:06am Aug 5, 2008 3:06am
I think its time to try a long, @1.55
  • #17,680
  • Aug 5, 2008 3:06am Aug 5, 2008 3:06am
Good night mazae

Wish you sweet dreams and to wake up with heaps of green pips.
Quoting Clouds
careful, it may be a mirage
Well if the smell of this corpse is actually that of a blooming rose I'll have to cut off my nose I guess.
On the path to Enrichment.
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