JPY craziness | Forex Factory

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JPY craziness

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 11, 2007 4:37pm Feb 11, 2007 4:37pm
G7 might have just triggered a JPY sell, that could mark new extereme levels for all JPY crosses, be it GBPJPY, EURJPY etc.

Feb 11, market open, witnessed a 50-100+ movement in all major JPY crosses in less than 30 minutes.
  • #2
  • Feb 11, 2007 4:40pm Feb 11, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting theroller
G7 might have just triggered a JPY sell, that could mark new extereme levels for all JPY crosses, be it GBPJPY, EURJPY etc.

Feb 11, market open, witnessed a 50-100+ movement in all major JPY crosses in less than 30 minutes.
Yep. G7 conclusion was that a weak yen doesn't hur Europe, so big investors are rushing to get back with their carry trades shorting the yen.

I'm enjoying this very much, especially because I opened short positions on yen earlier today, after reading every report I could find on the G7 :-)
  • #3
  • Feb 11, 2007 4:45pm Feb 11, 2007 4:45pm
Quoting theroller
G7 might have just triggered a JPY sell, that could mark new extereme levels for all JPY crosses, be it GBPJPY, EURJPY etc.

Feb 11, market open, witnessed a 50-100+ movement in all major JPY crosses in less than 30 minutes.
This is another good example why is better to ignore the news and trade the chart.
My chart made me go long friday. Some people can say it was crazy because the outcome of G7 could have been different, well...
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #4
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:14pm Feb 11, 2007 5:14pm
Quoting dof
This is another good example why is better to ignore the news and trade the chart.
My chart made me go long friday. Some people can say it was crazy because the outcome of G7 could have been different, well...
Ignore the news? That's rather dicey advice. The news (fundamentals/financials/central bank rhetoric) is what moves the market! Charts and technicals don't move the market!

You're saying to ignore the news, but it is exactly such news that moved the market today...

All of your tech indicators can be telling you one thing, but they are no match for a fundamental release or a central bank statement.
  • #5
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:20pm Feb 11, 2007 5:20pm
People move the market out of fear, greed and emotion.

Technical, fundamental, whatever. At the end of the day people make the decisions that move the market.
  • #6
  • Feb 11, 2007 5:25pm Feb 11, 2007 5:25pm
I agree. The market runs on pure emotion most of the time. And what triggers these emotional responses are largely tied into the economic reports, the B.S. from the central bankers, and various other types of news and financial information.
  • #7
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:15pm Feb 11, 2007 6:15pm
Kiss off
They call me "Hondo"
  • #8
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:21pm Feb 11, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting Breton Wood
Ignore the news? That's rather dicey advice. The news (fundamentals/financials/central bank rhetoric) is what moves the market! Charts and technicals don't move the market!

You're saying to ignore the news, but it is exactly such news that moved the market today...

All of your tech indicators can be telling you one thing, but they are no match for a fundamental release or a central bank statement.
You might have a point there but not enough.
Do you do backtesting to your technical strategy? For your backtesting do you take the news in cosideration? I don't. So if my system is tested without looking at the news why would my trading be different?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #9
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:33pm Feb 11, 2007 6:33pm
I don't need to do backtesting. I trade real money solely on the news. My account is up 155% for the past 30 days right now -- purely on news trading. And I'll gladly post my P and L to show I'm not B.S.ing anybody.

I'm not downing tech traders. If you can make your money that way, wonderful. I can't. Maybe I'm too dense to figure it all out.

Example: the RSI, MACD, EMA, Fibo's, etc. could all be telling you to short the EUR/USD (for example). But news hits the wires that is negative for the U.S. What happens? The EUR goes bullish against the dollar.

This happens every single day in the market. The market generally follows a specific pattern when news hits the wires.

Yes, when it's stuck in non-news range, I'm sure the techs are wonderful to use. But I believe all the big money is to be made trading the news.

Look at what happened to the GBP/USD last week -- the techs were showing bullish for the pair. The news hit about the interest rate and then the news hit about HSBC's financial woes. Just based on that news alone, the pair dropped 200+ pips. The techs couldn't have called that move.
  • #10
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:47pm Feb 11, 2007 6:47pm
Quoting Breton Wood
I don't need to do backtesting. I trade real money solely on the news. My account is up 155% for the past 30 days right now -- purely on news trading. And I'll gladly post my P and L to show I'm not B.S.ing anybody.

I'm not downing tech traders. If you can make your money that way, wonderful. I can't. Maybe I'm too dense to figure it all out.

Example: the RSI, MACD, EMA, Fibo's, etc. could all be telling you to short the EUR/USD (for example). But news hits the wires that is negative for the U.S. What happens? The EUR goes bullish against the dollar.

This happens every single day in the market. The market generally follows a specific pattern when news hits the wires.

Yes, when it's stuck in non-news range, I'm sure the techs are wonderful to use. But I believe all the big money is to be made trading the news.

Look at what happened to the GBP/USD last week -- the techs were showing bullish for the pair. The news hit about the interest rate and then the news hit about HSBC's financial woes. Just based on that news alone, the pair dropped 200+ pips. The techs couldn't have called that move.
I am happy for you, I couldn't do news, at least not right now.
One month is not so much. If you're doing it for at least the last 6 months that's awsome.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #11
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:55pm Feb 11, 2007 6:55pm
I might kindly suggest you at least keep up with the economic calendar so that you know what kind of big market-moving news events are coming out each day.

And if you don't want to deal with the news aspect of trading, be sure to have no open entries the first Friday of each month! Just a hint...
  • #12
  • Feb 11, 2007 6:58pm Feb 11, 2007 6:58pm
Quoting Breton Wood
I might kindly suggest you at least keep up with the economic calendar so that you know what kind of big market-moving news events are coming out each day.

And if you don't want to deal with the news aspect of trading, be sure to have no open entries the first Friday of each month! Just a hint...
Not everything is about NFP.
I do trade gbp usd, but i have more than just that.

Are you from boca raton, fl ?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #13
  • Feb 11, 2007 7:20pm Feb 11, 2007 7:20pm
Are you saying you went short usdjpy?

Quoting theroller
G7 might have just triggered a JPY sell, that could mark new extereme levels for all JPY crosses, be it GBPJPY, EURJPY etc.

Feb 11, market open, witnessed a 50-100+ movement in all major JPY crosses in less than 30 minutes.
  • #14
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:23pm Feb 11, 2007 8:23pm
Quoting dof
Not everything is about NFP.
I do trade gbp usd, but i have more than just that.

Are you from boca raton, fl ?
Not from FL.

NFP Friday is the greatest day of the month for me! It's the only day I know I can at least triple the size of my entry in profit.
  • #15
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:38pm Feb 11, 2007 8:38pm
Quoting Breton Wood
I don't need to do backtesting. I trade real money solely on the news. My account is up 155% for the past 30 days right now -- purely on news trading. And I'll gladly post my P and L to show I'm not B.S.ing anybody.

I'm not downing tech traders. If you can make your money that way, wonderful. I can't. Maybe I'm too dense to figure it all out.

Example: the RSI, MACD, EMA, Fibo's, etc. could all be telling you to short the EUR/USD (for example). But news hits the wires that is negative for the U.S. What happens? The EUR goes bullish against the dollar.

This happens every single day in the market. The market generally follows a specific pattern when news hits the wires.

Yes, when it's stuck in non-news range, I'm sure the techs are wonderful to use. But I believe all the big money is to be made trading the news.

Look at what happened to the GBP/USD last week -- the techs were showing bullish for the pair. The news hit about the interest rate and then the news hit about HSBC's financial woes. Just based on that news alone, the pair dropped 200+ pips. The techs couldn't have called that move.

Interesting conversation- good argument between fundi and techi.

I think both dof and you are right as afar as i am concerned.

News does move the price out of a channel (spikes it), but then the price will either return back to the channel it was at or on a new channel where one can trade....be it trend or ranging channel...this channel will be created after the news.

So both of you are correct.


May the pips be with you
Pipology 101 student
  • #16
  • Feb 11, 2007 8:43pm Feb 11, 2007 8:43pm
Pipology, that's a great way of putting it. After the news/fundamentals moves the market, it definitely falls into a pattern like range and I totally agree that's when you can use some techs to make trades.
  • #17
  • Feb 12, 2007 6:27am Feb 12, 2007 6:27am
Quoting Breton Wood
Not from FL.

NFP Friday is the greatest day of the month for me! It's the only day I know I can at least triple the size of my entry in profit.
How long have you been doing this?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #18
  • Last Post: Feb 12, 2007 9:13am Feb 12, 2007 9:13am
Quoting dof
How long have you been doing this?
With live money, going on two years now.
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