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  • #17,381
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:16pm Aug 1, 2008 12:16pm
Do u see what I see?
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  • #17,382
  • Aug 1, 2008 12:18pm Aug 1, 2008 12:18pm
"...the danger on the rocks is surely past, still I remain tied to the mast, could it be that I have found my home at last ...home at last.
Fools Rushing
  • #17,383
  • Aug 1, 2008 1:52pm Aug 1, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting Seaward22
Agreed. The smartest people in the world see 1.46-1.49 by this years end.

There is just one catch, war with Iran. Here's some news articles, I'll let you
decide if war is possible.
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5478
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5474
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...7vE&refer=home
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5477
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull
  • #17,384
  • Aug 1, 2008 4:03pm Aug 1, 2008 4:03pm
If only it was ONE catch.
Gravity always wins
  • #17,385
  • Aug 2, 2008 7:09am Aug 2, 2008 7:09am
Is the Eur bull dead, who knows, here's a weekly chart, showing 3 red crows candlestick pattern. Check out this video saying the Eur has peaked and will hit 1.47ish by the year end.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
Look for the Meg Browne video
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  • #17,386
  • Aug 2, 2008 8:41am Aug 2, 2008 8:41am
There is some short term support at this point. 4 hour candle chart gave a trend cont on macd price has cluttered up sellers currently running into momentum stopping buying. has had a nice move down most of last week I see a counter rally here. Looking at 1.5600 as short term target.

Good trading.
  • #17,387
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:25am Aug 2, 2008 9:25am
Here is just a thought about the US economy.

I am a realtor in Las Vegas and as I write this post we have about 28,000 homes listed on the MLS. Of those 28,000 homes 60% of them are distressed properties, meaning either bank owned or what they call short sales....

Now here is where it gets even more interesting. For the 2-3 years leading up to the housing market crash Las Vegas was selling about 40,000 homes per year, a total of approx 120,000 homes sold.

This year and last year we were selling about 25,000 re-sale homes per year. That leaves about 70,000 homes that might be coming up for sale with some kind of distressed situation attached to it.

There are also homes out there, that home owners bought way back when and before the rise in home prices, who, during the good times decided they would refi and take a huge amount of their equity out of the home, who, are now also adding to the crisis because they too took out low interest loans that are about to come due.

The above numbers I mention are only re-sale homes. They don't include for-sale-buy-owners or brand new track homes. So my guess would be that in Las Vegas....one city in the US.....we still have 140,000+ homes out there with disaster written all over them.

My point is the US is still in the sh.....t. and will be for at least another 4 -8 years.....about the same length of time that the Oil Barrens have been in the White house...
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #17,388
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:33am Aug 2, 2008 9:33am
Friday, August 01, 2008

SunTrust Acquires Insured Customer Deposits of First Priority Bank from FDIC

ATLANTA, Aug 01, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ ----SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE: STI: 42.01, +0.95, +2.31%) announced today that it has acquired from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC</span>) approximately $225 million in FDIC-insured deposits of First Priority Bank of Bradenton, Florida. The FDIC separately announced today the closing of First Priority Bank by the Commissioner of the Florida Office of Financial Regulation.
~~~~~~~~~
Bank closings by year.
2000 2
2001 3
2002 12 (8 by July)
2003 3
2004 4
2005 0
2006 0
2007 3
2008 8

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/.../banklist.html
  • #17,389
  • Aug 2, 2008 12:26pm Aug 2, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting Jurrasic
Good. The you don't mind that in the next month or so it has no affect.
Also, it's not that "poor" trendline stopping euro it's also the daily 100 ema. Both are strong resistances as you can see. Trade as you see fit anyway of course.

Now it's final Have a great weekend folks.
I have 2 longs active, shorts all closed by this Fridays close, so I honestly don't know why I'm talking so bearish on EU. Fundementalls EU has to come down but I respect the trend lines and trade with them.
  • #17,390
  • Aug 2, 2008 12:28pm Aug 2, 2008 12:28pm
Quoting Russell
There is just one catch, war with Iran. Here's some news articles, I'll let you
decide if war is possible.
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5478
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5474
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...7vE&refer=home
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5477
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull
I think war is possible, most likely a low key bombing by Isreal. Oil may hit 150-175 for one month, but thats it. I guess EU could hit 1.60-1.65 in this type of scenerio. Check out oil reserves, Iran isn't that big of a player. Anyone have the top 10 oil exporters numbers?
  • #17,391
  • Aug 2, 2008 12:29pm Aug 2, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting Billser
Here is just a thought about the US economy.

I am a realtor in Las Vegas and as I write this post we have about 28,000 homes listed on the MLS. Of those 28,000 homes 60% of them are distressed properties, meaning either bank owned or what they call short sales....

Now here is where it gets even more interesting. For the 2-3 years leading up to the housing market crash Las Vegas was selling about 40,000 homes per year, a total of approx 120,000 homes sold.

This year and last year we were selling about 25,000 re-sale homes per year. That leaves about 70,000 homes that might be coming up for sale with some kind of distressed situation attached to it.

There are also homes out there, that home owners bought way back when and before the rise in home prices, who, during the good times decided they would refi and take a huge amount of their equity out of the home, who, are now also adding to the crisis because they too took out low interest loans that are about to come due.

The above numbers I mention are only re-sale homes. They don't include for-sale-buy-owners or brand new track homes. So my guess would be that in Las Vegas....one city in the US.....we still have 140,000+ homes out there with disaster written all over them.

My point is the US is still in the sh.....t. and will be for at least another 4 -8 years.....about the same length of time that the Oil Barrens have been in the White house...
I'm in the same boat here in FL. Everyone getting foreclosed, banks aren't helping matters at all. European and UK banks own a good portion of these mortgages. What effect do you think that has? Kind of cancels the balance out a little bit.
  • #17,392
  • Aug 2, 2008 4:19pm Aug 2, 2008 4:19pm
Quoting Seaward22
Check out oil reserves, Iran isn't that big of a player. Anyone have the top 10 oil exporters numbers?
Sure, it's just the fourth biggest exporter and has the second largest proven crude reserves.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20080310043324

Not to mention that a war there destabilizes the whole region.
  • #17,393
  • Aug 2, 2008 5:30pm Aug 2, 2008 5:30pm
Quoting Kane Rai
Sure, it's just the fourth biggest exporter and has the second largest proven crude reserves.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922041.html
http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20080310043324

Not to mention that a war there destabilizes the whole region.
There's also the possibility Iran could shutdown the Strait of Hormuz - where an estimated 20-40% of the world's oil supply has to pass through.
  • #17,394
  • Aug 2, 2008 5:35pm Aug 2, 2008 5:35pm
Quoting jrl
There's also the possibility Iran could shutdown the Strait of Hormuz - where an estimated 20-40% of the world's oil supply has to pass through.
LOL


and how will they do this with such a strong US Naval presense in that area?
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #17,395
  • Aug 2, 2008 7:01pm Aug 2, 2008 7:01pm
Quoting jrl
There's also the possibility Iran could shutdown the Strait of Hormuz - where an estimated 20-40% of the world's oil supply has to pass through.
Iran can't Photoshop a picture correctly... how in the h#ll are they going to close anything down.

Here's a thought: When one Naval Aircraft carrier leaves port with it's sundry other ships it becomes one of the largest armies in the world. Not in terms of number but firepower.

Remember the elite special forces the Iraq's had? They were surrendering to Humvees.

I hope cooler heads prevail... I really do... but the US military complex is like nothing the world has ever seen.
  • #17,396
  • Aug 2, 2008 8:43pm Aug 2, 2008 8:43pm
My EU analysis for next few months
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  • #17,397
  • Aug 2, 2008 8:46pm Aug 2, 2008 8:46pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
Friday, August 01, 2008
Bank closings by year.
2000 2
2001 3
2002 12 (8 by July)
2003 3
2004 4
2005 0
2006 0
2007 3
2008 8
FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair has been upfront in preparing the public -- and Congress -- for a surge in bank failures ahead, as real estate loan losses wipe out more lenders’ capital.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/mone...-can-star.html

hmm, bear pressure has grown a lot, it seems, but we may still get one more bounce...
  • #17,398
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:00pm Aug 2, 2008 9:00pm
"The legislation also creates long-term uncertainty with regard to the extent and form of government assistance. In effect, Treasury Secretary Paulson now has an open-ended mandate to bail out the nation's troubled housing finance market, the largest single capital market in the world.

If any other country announced that its finance minister could print unlimited debt to do something similar, financial markets around the world would dump both the country's debt and the country's currency. It may well be different because this is the United States of America. But certainly, to take such a risky and unprecedented step, a better crafted and considered piece of legislation should have been created."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1217...n_commentaries

Sure, the 'mericans think they can get away with anything because they hold the world's reserve currency.

See you at EUR/USD 2 and XAU/USD 1500+
  • #17,399
  • Aug 2, 2008 9:36pm Aug 2, 2008 9:36pm
Tmac, acumen...

The thing about blocking a 21 mile shipping channel is that your opponent's strength in either numbers or firepower is rendered nearly irrelevant. Simply attacking could effectively shutdown shipping. At the very least it would create fear in the market. Iran wouldn't have to win. They would have to not lose. Given the attack on the U.S.S. Cole and that incident with the British navy, that's rather possible. Anyway, it would clearly be an escalation, and I'd bet that'd be bad news for USD.
  • #17,400
  • Aug 3, 2008 7:21am Aug 3, 2008 7:21am
Quoting Seaward22
I have 2 longs active, shorts all closed by this Fridays close, so I honestly don't know why I'm talking so bearish on EU. Fundementalls EU has to come down but I respect the trend lines and trade with them.
Cool man, like I said to me at least a retrace to around 57 seems quite likely now, even if after that it crashed down. Let's wait and see, not much longer left.
Quoting jrl
Tmac, acumen...

The thing about blocking a 21 mile shipping channel is that your opponent's strength in either numbers or firepower is rendered nearly irrelevant. Simply attacking could effectively shutdown shipping. At the very least it would create fear in the market. Iran wouldn't have to win. They would have to not lose. Given the attack on the U.S.S. Cole and that incident with the British navy, that's rather possible. Anyway, it would clearly be an escalation, and I'd bet that'd be bad news for USD.
jrl,

I seriously doubt that Iran would take any serious military measures even if there is a strike against them. They might fire some rockets towards Israel but probably won't even try any of those chemical of biological warheads they already do have for a logn time. They've been fighting with Iraq for a long time in the 1980s, the US crushed Iraq in just a few weeks in 1991 and most of the battle was decided very quickly before even a face to face confrontation by guided rockets and missiles raining down on Iraqi military targets. Let's face it, Iran may have some crazy muslim fundumental leaders but they know full well that if they act against the US militarily they'll have hardly any of their (currently one of the biggest in the world) army left except some of their ground forces in a few weeks, as cruise missiles and modern fighter planes will decimate them from a far. Welcome to the 21st century.
On the path to Enrichment.
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